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Uncertainties in future projections of extreme precipitation in the Indian monsoon region

Turner, A. G. and Slingo, J. M. (2009) Uncertainties in future projections of extreme precipitation in the Indian monsoon region. Atmospheric Science Letters, 10 (3). pp. 152-158. ISSN 1530-261X

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To link to this article DOI: 10.1002/asl.223

Abstract/Summary

Uncertainties in changes to the spatial distribution and magnitude of the heaviest extremes of daily monsoon rainfall over India are assessed in the doubled CO2 climate change scenarios in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Results show diverse changes to the spatial pattern of the 95th and 99th subseasonal percentiles, which are strongly tied to the mean precipitation change during boreal summer. In some models, the projected increase in heaviest rainfall over India at CO2 doubling is entirely predictable based upon the surface warming and the Clausius–Clapeyron relation, a result which may depend upon the choice of convection scheme. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > NCAS
ID Code:1576
Uncontrolled Keywords:general-circulation model; Asian summer monsoon; climate; parameterization; enso; parametrization; sensitivity; simulations; convection; cycle
Publisher:John Wiley & Sons

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