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Pricing short leases and break clauses using simulation methodology

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McAllister, P., (2000) Pricing short leases and break clauses using simulation methodology. Working Papers in Land Management & Development. 11/00. Working Paper. University of Reading, Reading. pp21.

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Abstract/Summary

This paper examines the changes in the length of commercial property leases over the last decade and presents an analysis of the consequent investment and occupational pricing implications for commercial property investmentsIt is argued that the pricing implications of a short lease to an investor are contingent upon the expected costs of the letting termination to the investor, the probability that the letting will be terminated and the volatility of rental values.The paper examines the key factors influencing these variables and presents a framework for incorporating their effects into pricing models.Approaches to their valuation derived from option pricing are critically assessed. It is argued that such models also tend to neglect the price effects of specific risk factors such as tenant circumstances and the terms of break clause. Specific risk factors have a significant bearing on the probability of letting termination and on the level of the resultant financial losses. The merits of a simulation methododology are examined for rental and capital valuations of short leases and properties with break clauses.It is concluded that in addition to the rigour of its internal logic, the success of any methodology is predicated upon the accuracy of the inputs.The lack of reliable data on patterns in, and incidence of, lease termination and the lack of reliable time series of historic property performance limit the efficacy of financial models.

Item Type:Report (Working Paper)
Divisions:Henley Business School > Real Estate and Planning
ID Code:27207
Publisher:University of Reading
Publisher Statement:The copyright of each working paper remains with the author. If you wish to quote from or cite any paper please contact the appropriate author; in some cases a more recent version of the paper may have been published elsewhere.

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