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Comment on ``Conditional Exceedance Probabilities''

Bröcker, J., Siegert, S. and Kantz, H. (2011) Comment on ``Conditional Exceedance Probabilities''. Monthly Weather Review, 139 (10). pp. 3322-3324. ISSN 0027-0644

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To link to this article DOI: 10.1175/2011MWR3658.1

Abstract/Summary

In a recent paper, Mason et al. propose a reliability test of ensemble forecasts for a continuous, scalar verification. As noted in the paper, the test relies on a very specific interpretation of ensembles, namely, that the ensemble members represent quantiles of some underlying distribution. This quantile interpretation is not the only interpretation of ensembles, another popular one being the Monte Carlo interpretation. Mason et al. suggest estimating the quantiles in this situation; however, this approach is fundamentally flawed. Errors in the quantile estimates are not independent of the exceedance events, and consequently the conditional exceedance probabilities (CEP) curves are not constant, which is a fundamental assumption of the test. The test would reject reliable forecasts with probability much higher than the test size.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:No Reading authors. Back catalogue items
Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:29159
Uncontrolled Keywords:Ensembles, Forecasting, Probability forecasts/models/distributions, Statistics
Additional Information:The original article that was the subject of this comment/reply can be found at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR3284.1
Publisher:American Meteorological Society

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