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A functional time series analysis of forward curves derived from commodity futures

Horváth, L., Liu, Z., Rice, G. and Wang, S. (2020) A functional time series analysis of forward curves derived from commodity futures. International Journal of Forecasting, 36 (2). pp. 646-665. ISSN 0169-2070

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To link to this item DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.08.003

Abstract/Summary

We study forward curves formed from commodity futures prices listed on the Standard and Poor's-Goldman Sachs Commodities Index (S&P GSCI) using recently developed tools in functional time series analysis. Functional tests for stationarity and serial correlation suggest that log-differenced forward curves may be generally considered as stationary and conditionally heteroscedastic sequences of functions. Several functional methods for forecasting forward curves that more accurately reflect the time to expiry of contracts are developed, and we found that these typically outperformed their multivariate counterparts, with the best among them using the method of predictive factors introduced by Kargin and Onatski (2008).

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Arts, Humanities and Social Science > School of Politics, Economics and International Relations > Economics
ID Code:85666
Publisher:Elsevier

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