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Weisheimer, A., Baker, L. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Bröcker, J., Garfinkel, C. I., Hardiman, S. C., Hodson, D. L. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700, Palmer, T. N., Robson, J. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Scaife, A. A., Screen, J. A., Shepherd, T. G., Smith, D. N. and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2024) The signal-to-noise paradox in climate forecasts: revisiting our understanding and identifying future priorities. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0019.1 (In Press)

Dittus, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9598-6869, Collins, M., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2023) Reversal of projected European summer precipitation decline in a stabilising climate. Geophysical Research Letters. ISSN 1944-8007 (In Press)

Zhao, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8300-5872, Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Lai, M., Mecking, J., Yeager, S. and Petit, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7922-9363 (2023) Large diversity in AMOC internal variability across NEMO-based climate models. Climate Dynamics. ISSN 1432-0894 (In Press)

Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Menary, M. B. and Lai, M. W.K. (2023) Contrasting internally and externally generated Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the role for AMOC in CMIP6 historical simulations. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 381 (2262). 20220194. ISSN 1471-2962 doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2022.0194

Lehner, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4632-9701, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Pendergrass, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2542-1461 and Moore, F. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3866-9642 (2023) New potential to reduce uncertainty in regional climate projections by combining physical and socio‐economic constraints. AGU Advances, 4 (4). e2023AV000887. ISSN 2576-604X doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023AV000887

Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2023) Storylines for future changes of the North Atlantic jet and associated impacts on the UK. International Journal of Climatology, 43 (10). pp. 4424-4441. ISSN 1097-0088 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8095

Hodson, D. L. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Scaife, A. A. (2023) Signal‐to‐noise and predictable modes of variability in winter seasonal forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 149 (755). pp. 2598-2616. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4522

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 (2023) Decadal trends in surface solar radiation and cloud cover over the North Atlantic sector during the last four decades: drivers and physical processes. Climate Dynamics, 60. pp. 2533-2546. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06438-3

Wood, R. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3960-9513, Crucifix, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3437-4911, Lenton, T. M., Mach, K. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5591-8148, Moore, C., New, M., Sharpe, S., Stocker, T. F. and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2023) A climate science toolkit for high impact‐low likelihood climate risks. Earth's Future, 11 (4). e2022EF003369. ISSN 2328-4277 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef003369

Findell, K. L., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Caltabiano, N., Brookshaw, A., Heimbach, P., Kimoto, M., Osprey, S., Smith, D., Risbey, J. S., Wang, Z., Cheng, L., Diaz, L., Donat, M. G., Ek, M., Lee, J.-Y., Minobe, S., Rusticucci, M., Vitart, F. and Wang, L. (2023) Explaining and predicting Earth System Change: a world climate research programme call to action. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 104 (1). E325-E339. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0280.1

Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Menary, M. B., Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Mecking, J., Gregory, J. M., Jones, C., Sinha, B., Stevens, D. P. and Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 (2022) The role of anthropogenic aerosol forcing in the 1850-1985 strengthening of the AMOC in CMIP6 historical simulations. Journal of Climate, 35 (20). pp. 3243-3263. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0124.1

Smith, D. M., Gillett, N. P., Simpson, I. R., Athanasiadis, P. J., Baehr, J., Bethke, I., Bilge, T. A., Bonnet, R., Boucher, O., Findell, K. L., Gastineau, G., Gualdi, S., Hermanson, L., Leung, L. R., Mignot, J., Müller, W. A., Osprey, S., Otterå, O. H., Persad, G. G., Scaife, A. A., Schmidt, G. A., Shiogama, H., Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Swingedouw, D., Yang, S., Zhou, T. and Ziehn, T. (2022) Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP). Frontiers in Climate, 4. 955414. ISSN 2624-9553 doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.955414

Dimdore-Miles, O., Gray, L., Osprey, S., Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Sinha, B. (2022) Interactions between the stratospheric polar vortex and Atlantic circulation on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 22 (7). pp. 4867-4893. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4867-2022

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181 (2022) Recent decadal weakening of the summer Eurasian westerly jet attributable to anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Nature Communications, 13. 1148. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28816-5

Martin, M. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1443-0891, Boakye, E. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0993-4964, Boyd, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1643-9718, Broadgate, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4409-2800, Bustamante, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1008-452X, Canadell, J. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8788-3218, Carr, E. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7784-471X, Chu, E. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5648-6615, Cleugh, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4109-6884, Csevar, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6376-0363, Daoudy, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2223-847X, de Bremond, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0924-6053, Dhimal, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7176-7821, Ebi, K. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4746-8236, Edwards, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4343-4904, Fuss, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8681-9839, Girardin, M. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0436-7486, Glavovic, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5235-1425, Hebden, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1787-1649, Hirota, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1958-3651, Hsu, H.-H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9919-4404, Huq, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9398-973X, Ingold, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8166-1780, Johannessen, O. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0026-4885, Kameyama, Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5143-2688, Kumarasinghe, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1087-6001, Langendijk, G. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0178-7832, Lissner, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6637-6084, Lwasa, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4312-2836, Machalaba, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9715-0985, Maltais, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4557-0069, Mathai, M. V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6498-4411, Mbow, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4620-4490, McNamara, K. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4511-8403, Mukherji, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8061-4349, Murray, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4746-4024, Mysiak, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9341-7048, Okereke, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0132-8051, Ospina, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5115-0899, Otto, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8166-5917, Prakash, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3749-0854, Pulhin, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3271-7351, Raju, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2348-1850, Redman, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8893-569X, Rigaud, K. K., Rockström, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8988-2983, Roy, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9270-8860, Schipper, E. L. F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6228-9178, Schlosser, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6514-4203, Schulz, K. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7503-4817, Schumacher, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6297-0964, Schwarz, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1726-1509, Scown, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0663-7937, Šedová, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7159-8260, Siddiqui, T. A., Singh, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6842-6735, Sioen, G. B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5180-0663, Stammer, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5777-5347, Steinert, N. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2154-5857, Suk, S., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Thalheimer, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3737-3586, van Aalst, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0319-5627, van der Geest, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5013-1004 and Zhao, Z. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6758-5723 (2022) Ten new insights in climate science 2022. Global Sustainability, 5. e20. ISSN 2059-4798 doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2022.17

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2021) Recent trends in summer atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic/European region: is there a role for anthropogenic aerosols? Journal Of Climate, 34 (16). pp. 6777-6795. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0665.1

Ortega, P., Robson, J. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Menary, M., Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Blaker, A., Germe, A., Hirschi, J. J.-M., Sinha, B., Hermanson, L. and Yeager, S. (2021) Labrador Sea subsurface density as a precursor of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: a multi-model study. Earth System Dynamics, 12 (2). pp. 419-438. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-419-2021

Senior, C. A., Jones, C. G., Wood, R. A., Sellar, A., Belcher, S., Klein‐Tank, A., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Walton, J., Lawrence, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9262-7860, Andrews, T. and Mulcahy, J. P. (2020) UK community Earth system modelling for CMIP6. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12 (9). e2019MS002004. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002004

Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Aksenov, Y., Bracegirdle, T. J., Dimdore-Miles, O., Griffiths, P. T., Grosvenor, D. P., Hodson, D. L.R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700, Keeble, J., MacIntosh, C., Megann, A., Osprey, S., Povey, A. C., Schröder, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2351-4306, Yang, M., Archibald, A. T., Carslaw, K. S., Gray, L., Jones, C., Kerridge, B., Knappett, D., Kuhlbrodt, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2328-6729, Russo, M., Sellar, A., Siddans, R., Sinha, B., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Walton, J. and Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 (2020) The evaluation of the North Atlantic climate system in UKESM1 historical simulations for CMIP6. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12 (9). e2020MS002126. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002126

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 (2020) Attribution of 2012 extreme climate events: does air-sea interaction matter? Climate Dynamics, 55 (5-6). pp. 1225-1245. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05321-3

Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2020) ESD Ideas: global climate response scenarios for IPCC assessments. Earth System Dynamics, 11. pp. 751-754. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-751-2020

Menary, M. B., Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Booth, B. B. B., Cassou, C., Gastineau, G., Gregory, J., Hodson, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700, Jones, C., Mignot, J., Ringer, M., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Wilcox, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 and Zhang, R. (2020) Aerosol-forced AMOC changes in CMIP6 historical simulations. Geophysical Research Letters. e2020GL088166. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088166

Ossó, A., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 (2020) Development, amplification, and decay of Atlantic/European summer weather patterns linked to spring North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Journal of Climate, 33 (14). pp. 5939-5951. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0613.1

Dittus, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9598-6869, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Smith, C. J., Andrews, M. B. and Forster, P. M. (2020) Sensitivity of historical climate simulations to uncertain aerosol forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (13). e2019GL085806. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085806

Andrews, M. B., Ridley, J. K., Wood, R. A., Andrews, T., Blockley, E. W., Booth, B., Burke, E., Dittus, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9598-6869, Florek, P., Gray, L. J., Haddad, S., Hardiman, S. C., Hermanson, L., Hodson, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700, Hogan, E., Jones, G. S., Knight, J. R., Kuhlbrodt, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2328-6729, Misios, S., Mizielinski, M. S., Ringer, M. A., Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2020) Historical simulations with HadGEM3-GC3.1 for CMIP6. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12 (6). e2019MS001995. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001995

Tian, F., Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Wilcox, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 (2020) Processes shaping the spatial pattern and seasonality of the surface air temperature response to anthropogenic forcing. Climate Dynamics, 54 (9-10). pp. 3959-3975. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05211-8

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Frame, D., Harrington, L., Joshi, M., King, A., Rojas, M. and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2020) Observed emergence of the climate change signal: from the familiar to the unknown. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (6). e2019GL086259. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086259

Ossó, A., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2019) Impact of air-sea coupling on northern hemisphere summer climate and the monsoon-desert teleconnection. Climate Dynamics, 53 (7-8). pp. 5063-5078. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04846-6

Tian, F., Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Tett, S. (2019) Projected near term changes in the East Asian summer monsoon and its uncertainty. Environmental Research Letters, 14 (8). 084038. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab28a6

Zhang, R., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Danabasoglu, G., Kwon, Y.‐O., Marsh, R., Yeager, S. G., Amrhein, D. E. and Little, C. M. (2019) A review of the role of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in Atlantic multidecadal variability and associated climate impacts. Reviews of Geophysics, 57 (2). pp. 316-375. ISSN 8755-1209 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000644

Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2019) Climate science needs to take risk assessment much more seriously. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100 (9). pp. 1637-1642. ISSN 0003-0007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0280.1

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Highwood, E. J. and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2019) Impacts of recent decadal changes in Asian aerosols on the East Asian summer monsoon: roles of aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions. Climate Dynamics, 53 (5-6). pp. 3235-3256. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04698-0 (Dong, B., Wilcox, L.J., Highwood, E.J. et al. Clim Dyn (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04698-0)

Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Archibald, A., Cooper, F., Christensen, M., Gray, L. J., Holliday, N. P., Macintosh, C., McMillan, M., Moat, B., Russo, M., Tilling, R., Carslaw, K., Desbruyères, D., Embury, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1661-7828, Feltham, D. L., Grosvenor, D. P., Josey, S., King, B., Lewis, A., McCarthy, G. D., Merchant, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, New, A. L., O'Reilly, C. H., Osprey, S. M., Read, K., Scaife, A., Shepherd, A., Sinha, B., Smeed, D., Smith, D., Ridout, A., Woollings, T. and Yang, M. (2018) Recent multivariate changes in the North Atlantic climate system, with a focus on 2005-2016. International Journal of Climatology, 38 (12). pp. 5050-5076. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5815

Tian, F., Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2018) Forced decadal changes in the East Asian summer monsoon: the roles of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols. Climate Dynamics, 51 (9-10). pp. 3699-3715. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4105-7

Baker, L. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Weisheimer, A. and Scaife, A. A. (2018) An intercomparison of skill and overconfidence/underconfidence of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in multimodel seasonal forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (15). pp. 7808-7817. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078838

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Joshi, M., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Lowe, J. and Frame, D. (2011) Projections of when temperature change will exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Nature Climate Change, 1 (8). pp. 407-412. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1261

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2011) The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change. Climate Dynamics, 37 (1-2). pp. 407-418. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2011) Estimating climatically relevant singular vectors for decadal predictions of the Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Climate, 24 (1). pp. 109-123. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3579.1

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Woollings, T. (2011) Changes of interannual NAO variability in response to greenhouse gases forcing. Climate Dynamics, 37 (7-8). pp. 1621-1641. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0936-6

Ortega, P., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2011) Processes governing the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a coupled GCM. Climate Dynamics, 37 (9-10). pp. 1771-1782. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1025-1

Hodson, D. L. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Cassou, C., Keenlyside, N., Okumura, Y. and Zhou, T. (2010) Climate impacts of recent multidecadal changes in Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature: A multimodel comparison. Climate Dynamics, 34 (7-8). pp. 1041-1058. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0571-2

Hermanson, L. and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2010) Case studies in interannual to decadal climate predictability. Climate Dynamics, 35 (7-8). pp. 1169-1189. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0672-y

Keeley, S. P. E., Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2009) Does the North Atlantic Oscillation show unusual persistence on intraseasonal timescales? Geophysical Research Letters, 36. L22706. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040367

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2009) The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90 (8). pp. 1095-1107. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1

Wilby, R.L., Troni, J., Biot, Y., Tedd, L., Hewitson, B.C., Smith, D.M. and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2009) A review of climate risk information for adaptation and development planning. International Journal of Climatology, 29 (9). pp. 1193-1215. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1839

Hermanson, L. and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2009) Climate predictability in the second year. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. Part A, 367 (1890). pp. 913-916. ISSN 1364-503X doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0181

Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Hermanson, K. L., Liu, C. L., Putt, D., Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Iwi, A. and Smith, D. (2009) Decadal climate prediction (project GCEP). Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 367 (1890). pp. 925-937. ISSN 1364-503X doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0178

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2009) Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling. Journal of Climate, 22 (14). pp. 3960-3978. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2720.1

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Gregory, J. M. and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2009) Understanding land-sea warming contrast in response to increasing greenhouse gases. Part I: Transient adjustment. Journal of Climate, 22 (11). pp. 3079-3097. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2652.1

Stott, P.A., Sutton, R.T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Smith, D.M. (2008) Detection and attribution of Atlantic salinity changes. Geophysical Research Letters, 35 (21). L21702. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035874

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2008) Potential predictability of rapid changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Geophysical Research Letters, 35 (11). L11603. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034059

Hodson, D.L.R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700 and Sutton, R.T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2008) Exploring Multi-model atmospheric GCM Ensembles with ANOVA. Climate Dynamcs, 31 (7-8). pp. 973-986. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0372-z

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2007) Variability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation described by three-dimensional empirical orthogonal functions. Climate Dynamics, 29 (7-8). pp. 745-762. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0263-8

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2007) Enhancement of ENSO variability by a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation in a coupled GCM. Journal of Climate, 20 (19). pp. 4290-4239. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4284.1

Timmermann, A., Okumura, Y., An, S. -I., Clement, A., Dong, B. -W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Guilyardi, E., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J., Krebs, U., Renold, M., Stocker, T. F., Stouffer, R. J., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Xie, S. -P. and Yin, J. (2007) The influence of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on ENSO. Journal of Climate, 20 (19). pp. 4899-4919. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4283.1

Spencer, H., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Slingo, J.M. (2007) El Nino in a Coupled Climate Model: Sensitivity to changes in mean state induced by heat flux and wind stress corrections. Journal of Climate, 20 (10). pp. 2273-2298. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4111.1

Williams, P. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9713-9820, Guilyardi, E., Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Gregory, J. M. and Madec, G. (2007) A new feedback on climate change from the hydrological cycle. Geophysical Research Letters, 34 (8). L08706. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029275

Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 and Gregory, J. (2007) Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations. Geophysical Research Letters, 34. L02701. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028164

Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Hodson, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700 (2007) Climate response to basin-scale warming and cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Climate, 20 (5). pp. 891-907. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4038.1

George, S. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0396-0299 and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2007) Predictability and skill of boreal winter forecasts made with the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasting System II. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 132 (619). pp. 2031-2053. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.180

Williams, P. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9713-9820, Guilyardi, E., Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Gregory, J. M. and Madec, G. (2006) On the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean to changes in the global freshwater cycle. Climate Dynamics, 27 (6). pp. 593-611. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0151-7

Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2006) Bjerknes compensation and the decadal variability of the energy transports in a coupled climate model. Journal Of Climate, 19 (7). pp. 1167-1181. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3652.1

Hurrell, J. W., Visbeck, M., Busalacchi, A., Clarke, R. A., Delworth, T. L., Dickson, R. R., Johns, W. E., Koltermann, K. P., Kushnir, Y., Marshall, D., Mauritzen, C., McCartney, M. S., Piola, A., Reason, C., Reverdin, G., Schott, F., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Wainer, I. and Wright, D. (2006) Atlantic climate variability and predictability: A CLIVAR perspective. Journal Of Climate, 19 (20). pp. 5100-5121. ISSN 1520-0442

Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2006) CLIVAR Workshop on Atlantic Climate Predictability - Preface to the special issue of the Journal of Climate. Journal Of Climate, 19 (23). p. 5947. ISSN 1520-0442

Snaith, H. and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2006) Coupled ocean-atmosphere processes and European climate (COAPEC): Improved understanding of the coupled climate system - Preface. Journal Of Climate, 19 (7). p. 1065. ISSN 1520-0442

Collins, M., Botzet, A., Carril, A. F., Drange, H., Jouzeau, A., Latif, M., Masina, S., Otteraa, O. H., Pohlmann, H., Sorteberg, A., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Terray, L. (2006) Interannual to decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic: A multimodel-ensemble study. Journal Of Climate, 19 (7). pp. 1195-1203. ISSN 1520-0442

Dong, B. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Scaife, A. A. (2006) Multidecadal modulation of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variance by Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters, 33 (8). doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025766

Copsey, D., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Knight, J. R. (2006) Recent trends in sea level pressure in the Indian Ocean region. Geophysical Research Letters, 33 (19). ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027175

Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2006) The influence of oceanic conditions on the hot Europen summer of 2003. Climate Dynamics, 28. pp. 53-66.

Pezzulli, S., Frederic, P., Majithia, S., Sabbagh, S., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Stephenson, D. (2006) The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 22 (2). pp. 113-125. ISSN 1524-1904

Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Hodson, D. L. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700 (2005) Atlantic Ocean forcing of North American and European summer climate. Science, 309 (5731). pp. 115-118.

Spencer, H., Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Slingo, J. M., Roberts, M. and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2005) Indian Ocean climate and dipole variability in Hadley Centre coupled GCMs. Journal Of Climate, 18 (13). pp. 2286-2307. ISSN 1520-0442

Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2005) Informing adaptation: New challenges for the climate modelling community. Weather, 60. p. 186.

Dong, B. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2005) Mechanism of interdecadal thermohaline circulation variability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. Journal Of Climate, 18 (8). pp. 1117-1135. ISSN 1520-0442

Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Mathieu, P. P., Collins, M. and Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 (2005) Response to comment by Geert van Oldenburgh on "Predictability of winter climate over the North Atlantic European region during ENSO events". Journal Of Climate, 18 (14). pp. 2773-2774. ISSN 1520-0442

Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2004) The interannual variability of energy transports within and over the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled climate model. Journal Of Climate, 17 (7). pp. 1433-1448. ISSN 1520-0442

Rodwell, M. J., Drevillon, M., Frankignoul, C., Hurrell, J. W., Pohlmann, H., Stendel, M. and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2004) North Atlantic forcing of climate and its uncertainty from a multi-model experiment. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 130 (601). pp. 2013-2032. ISSN 1477-870X

Mathieu, P. P., Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 and Collins, M. (2004) Predictability of winter climate over the North Atlantic European region during ENSO events. Journal Of Climate, 17 (10). pp. 1953-1974. ISSN 1520-0442

Frankignoul, C., Kestenare, E., Botzet, M., Carril, A. F., Drange, H., Pardaens, A., Terray, L. and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2004) An intercomparison between the surface heat flux feedback in five coupled models, COADS and the NCEP reanalysis. Climate Dynamics, 22 (4). pp. 373-388.

Sutton, R.T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Hodson, D.L.R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700 (2003) Influence of the ocean on North Atlantic climate variability 1871-1999. Journal Of Climate, 16. pp. 3296-3313. ISSN 1520-0442

Dong, B.W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 and Sutton, R.T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2003) Variability of Atlantic Ocean heat transport and its effects on the atmosphere. Annales Geophysicae, 46. pp. 87-97.

Book or Report Section

Arnell, N., Qingchen, C., Ying, X., Junfeng, L., Tong, J., Guangsheng, Z., Kexiu, L., Brown, S., Challinor, A., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Koehler, A.-K., Nicholls, R., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Rensheng, C., Xiaomin, L. and Wentao, W. (2018) Direct risks of climate change. In: UK-China Co-operation on Climate Change Risk Assessment: Developing Indicators of Climate Risk. Committee on Climate Change, London, pp. 58-97.

Kirtman, B., Power, S. B., Adedoyin, J. A., Boer, G. J., Camilloni, I., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Fiore, A. M., Kimoto, M., Meehl, G. A., Prather, M., Sarr, A., Schar, C., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, van Oldenborgh, G. J., Vecchi, G. and Wang, H. J. (2014) Near-term climate change: projections and predictability. In: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M. M.B., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V. and Midgley, P. M. (eds.) Climate change 2013 : the physical science basis : contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN 9781107661820 doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.023

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Dufresne, J.-L., Gualdi, S., Friedlingstein, P., Keenlyside, N., Maheras, P., Salas, D., Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Terray, L. (2009) Understanding the processes governing climate variability and change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events. In: Summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project. Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK, pp. 79-93.

Report

Wolf, E., Arnell, N., Friedlingstein, P., Gregory, J., Haigh, J., Haines, A., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Hegerl, G., Hoskins, B., Mace, G., Prentice, I. C., Shine, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2672-9978, Smith, P., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Turley, C., (2017) Climate updates: what have we learnt since the IPCC 5th Assessment Report? Report. The Royal Society, London, UK. pp36. ISBN 9781782523062

Conference or Workshop Item

Sutton, R.T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Hodson, D.L.R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700 and Mathieu, P.P. (2003) The role of the Atlantic Ocean in climate forecasting. Proceedings of the ECMWF workshop on the role of the upper ocean in medium and extended range forecasting. In: ECMWF.

This list was generated on Mon Mar 18 14:47:55 2024 UTC.

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