Article

Goddard, L., Kumar, A., Solomon, A., Smith, D., Boer, G., Gonzalez, P., Kharin, V., Merryfield, W., Deser, C., Mason, S. J., Kirtman, B. P., Msadek, R., Sutton, R., Hawkins, E., Fricker, T., Hegerl, G., Ferro, C. A. T., Stephenson, D. B., Meehl, G. A., Stockdale, T., Burgman, R., Greene, A. M., Kushnir, Y., Newman, M., Carton, J., Fukumori, I. and Delworth, T. (2013) A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments. Climate Dynamics, 40 (1-2). pp. 245-272. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2

Polo, I., Dong, B. W. and Sutton, R. T. (2013) Changes in tropical Atlantic interannual variability from a substantial weakening of the meridional overturning circulation. Climate Dynamics. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1716-x (In Press)

Meehl, G. A., Goddard, L., Boer, G., Burgman, R., Branstator, G., Cassou, C., Corti, S., Danabasoglu, G., Doblas-Reyes, F., Hawkins, E., Karspeck, A., Kimoto, M., Kumar, A., Matei, D., Mignot, J., Msadek, R., Pohlmann, H., Rienecker, M., Rosati, T., Schneider, E., Smith, D., Sutton, R., Teng, H., Van Oldenborgh, G. J., Vecchi, G. and Yeager, S. (2013) Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1 (In Press)

Zhang, R., Delworth, T. L., Sutton, R., Hodson, D. L. R., Dixon, K. W., Held, I. M., Kushnir, Y., Marshall, J., Ming, Y., Msadek, R., Robson, J., Rosati, A. J., Ting, M. and Vecchi, G. A. (2013) Have aerosols caused the observed Atlantic multidecadal variability? Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 70 (4). pp. 1135-1144. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-12-0331.1

Hodson, D. L. R. and Sutton, R. T. (2012) The impact of resolution on the adjustment and decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a coupled climate model. Climate Dynamics, 39 (12). pp. 3057-3073. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1309-0

Mauritzen, C., Melsom, A. and Sutton, R. T. (2012) Importance of density-compensated temperature change for deep North Atlantic Ocean heat uptake. Nature Geoscience, 5 (12). pp. 905-910. ISSN 1752-0908 doi: 10.1038/ngeo1639

Srokosz, M., Baringer, M., Bryden, H., Cunningham, S., Delworth, T., Lozier, S., Marotzke, J. and Sutton, R. (2012) Past, present and future change in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93 (11). pp. 1663-1676. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00151.1

Robson, J.I., Sutton, R.T. and Smith, D.M. (2012) Initialized decadal predictions of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid 1990s. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (L19713). ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2012GL053370

Sutton, R. and Dong, B. (2012) Atlantic Ocean influence on a shift in European climate in the 1990s. Nature Geoscience, 5. pp. 788-792. ISSN 1752-0908 doi: 10.1038/ngeo1595

Chalmers, N., Highwood, E. J., Hawkins, E., Sutton, R. T. and Wilcox, L. J. (2012) Aerosol contribution to the rapid warming of near-term climate under RCP 2.6. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (18). L18709. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2012GL052848

Robson, J., Sutton, R., Lohmann, K., Smith, D. and Palmer, M. D. (2012) Causes of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic ocean in the mid-1990s. Journal of Climate, 25 (12). pp. 4116-4134. ISSN 0894-8755 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00443.1

Keeley, S., Sutton, R. and Shaffrey, L. (2012) The impact of North Atlantic sea surface temperature errors on the simulation of North Atlantic European region climate. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.1912 (In Press)

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. (2012) Time of emergence of climate signals. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (1). L01702. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2011GL050087

Iwi, A. M., Hermanson, L., Haines, K. and Sutton, R. T. (2012) Mechanisms linking volcanic aerosols to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Journal of Climate, 25 (8). pp. 3039-3051. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI4067.1

Hawkins, E., Robson, J., Sutton, R., Smith, D. and Keenlyside, N. (2011) Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures with a perfect model approach. Climate Dynamics, 37 (11-12). pp. 2495-2509. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1023-3

Joshi, M., Hawkins, E., Sutton, R., Lowe, J. and Frame, D. (2011) Projections of when temperature change will exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Nature Climate Change, 1 (8). pp. 407-412. ISSN 1758-678X doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1261

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. T. (2011) The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change. Climate Dynamics, 37 (1-2). pp. 407-418. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. (2011) Estimating climatically relevant singular vectors for decadal predictions of the Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Climate, 24 (1). pp. 109-123. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3579.1

Dong, B., Sutton, R. T. and Woollings, T. (2011) Changes of interannual NAO variability in response to greenhouse gases forcing. Climate Dynamics, 37 (7-8). pp. 1621-1641. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0936-6

Ortega, P., Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. (2011) Processes governing the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a coupled GCM. Climate Dynamics, 37 (9-10). pp. 1771-1782. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1025-1

Hodson, D. L. R., Sutton, R. T., Cassou, C., Keenlyside, N., Okumura, Y. and Zhou, T. (2010) Climate impacts of recent multidecadal changes in Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature: A multimodel comparison. Climate Dynamics, 34 (7-8). pp. 1041-1058. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-009-0571-2

Hermanson, L. and Sutton, R. T. (2010) Case studies in interannual to decadal climate predictability. Climate Dynamics, 35 (7-8). pp. 1169-1189. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-009-0672-y

Keeley, S. P. E., Sutton, R. T. and Shaffrey, L. C. (2009) Does the North Atlantic Oscillation show unusual persistence on intraseasonal timescales? Geophysical Research Letters, 36. L22706. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2009GL040367

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. T. (2009) The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90 (8). pp. 1095-1107. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: 10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1

Wilby, R.L., Troni, J., Biot, Y., Tedd, L., Hewitson, B.C., Smith, D.M. and Sutton, R. (2009) A review of climate risk information for adaptation and development planning. International Journal of Climatology, 29 (9). pp. 1193-1215. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: 10.1002/joc.1839

Hermanson, L. and Sutton, R. T. (2009) Climate predictability in the second year. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. Part A, 367 (1890). pp. 913-916. ISSN 1364-503X doi: 10.1098/rsta.2008.0181

Haines, K., Hermanson, K. L., Liu, C. L., Putt, D., Sutton, R. T., Iwi, A. and Smith, D. (2009) Decadal climate prediction (project GCEP). Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 367 (1890). pp. 925-937. ISSN 1364-503X doi: 10.1098/rsta.2008.0178

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. T. (2009) Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling. Journal of Climate, 22 (14). pp. 3960-3978. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2720.1

Dong, B., Gregory, J. M. and Sutton, R. T. (2009) Understanding land-sea warming contrast in response to increasing greenhouse gases. Part I: Transient adjustment. Journal of Climate, 22 (11). pp. 3079-3097. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2652.1

Stott, P.A., Sutton, R.T. and Smith, D.M. (2008) Detection and attribution of Atlantic salinity changes. Geophysical Research Letters, 35 (21). L21702. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: DOI: 10.1029/2008GL035874

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. (2008) Potential predictability of rapid changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Geophysical Research Letters, 35 (11). L11603. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2008GL034059

Hodson, D.L.R. and Sutton, R.T. (2008) Exploring Multi-model atmospheric GCM Ensembles with ANOVA. Climate Dynamcs, 31 (7-8). pp. 973-986. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-008-0372-z

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. (2007) Variability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation described by three-dimensional empirical orthogonal functions. Climate Dynamics, 29 (7-8). pp. 745-762. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-007-0263-8

Dong, B. and Sutton, R. (2007) Enhancement of ENSO variability by a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation in a coupled GCM. Journal of Climate, 20 (19). pp. 4290-4239. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI4284.1

Timmermann, A., Okumura, Y., An, S. -I., Clement, A., Dong, B. -W., Guilyardi, E., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J., Krebs, U., Renold, M., Stocker, T. F., Stouffer, R. J., Sutton, R., Xie, S. -P. and Yin, J. (2007) The influence of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on ENSO. Journal of Climate, 20 (19). pp. 4899-4919. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: DOI: 10.1175/JCLI4283.1

Spencer, H., Sutton, R. and Slingo, J.M. (2007) El Nino in a Coupled Climate Model: Sensitivity to changes in mean state induced by heat flux and wind stress corrections. Journal of Climate, 20 (10). pp. 2273-2298. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: doi 10.1175/JCLI4111.1

Williams, P. D., Guilyardi, E., Sutton, R. T., Gregory, J. M. and Madec, G. (2007) A new feedback on climate change from the hydrological cycle. Geophysical Research Letters, 34 (8). L08706. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2007GL029275

Sutton, R., Dong, B. and Gregory, J. (2007) Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations. Geophysical Research Letters, 34. L02701. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2006GL028164

Sutton, R. and Hodson, D. (2007) Climate response to basin-scale warming and cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Climate, 20 (5). pp. 891-907. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI4038.1

Williams, P. D., Guilyardi, E., Sutton, R. T., Gregory, J. M. and Madec, G. (2006) On the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean to changes in the global freshwater cycle. Climate Dynamics, 27 (6). pp. 593-611. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-006-0151-7

Shaffrey, L. and Sutton, R. (2006) Bjerknes compensation and the decadal variability of the energy transports in a coupled climate model. Journal Of Climate, 19 (7). pp. 1167-1181. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI3652.1

Hurrell, J. W., Visbeck, M., Busalacchi, A., Clarke, R. A., Delworth, T. L., Dickson, R. R., Johns, W. E., Koltermann, K. P., Kushnir, Y., Marshall, D., Mauritzen, C., McCartney, M. S., Piola, A., Reason, C., Reverdin, G., Schott, F., Sutton, R., Wainer, I. and Wright, D. (2006) Atlantic climate variability and predictability: A CLIVAR perspective. Journal Of Climate, 19 (20). pp. 5100-5121. ISSN 1520-0442

Sutton, R. (2006) CLIVAR Workshop on Atlantic Climate Predictability - Preface to the special issue of the Journal of Climate. Journal Of Climate, 19 (23). p. 5947. ISSN 1520-0442

Snaith, H. and Sutton, R. (2006) Coupled ocean-atmosphere processes and European climate (COAPEC): Improved understanding of the coupled climate system - Preface. Journal Of Climate, 19 (7). p. 1065. ISSN 1520-0442

Collins, M., Botzet, A., Carril, A. F., Drange, H., Jouzeau, A., Latif, M., Masina, S., Otteraa, O. H., Pohlmann, H., Sorteberg, A., Sutton, R. and Terray, L. (2006) Interannual to decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic: A multimodel-ensemble study. Journal Of Climate, 19 (7). pp. 1195-1203. ISSN 1520-0442

Dong, B. W., Sutton, R. T. and Scaife, A. A. (2006) Multidecadal modulation of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variance by Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters, 33 (8). doi: 10.1029/2006GL025766

George, S. E. and Sutton, R. T. (2006) Predictability and skill of boreal winter forecasts made with the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasting System II. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 132 (619). pp. 2031-2053. ISSN 1477-870X

Copsey, D., Sutton, R. and Knight, J. R. (2006) Recent trends in sea level pressure in the Indian Ocean region. Geophysical Research Letters, 33 (19). ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2006GL027175

Black, E. and Sutton, R. T. (2006) The influence of oceanic conditions on the hot Europen summer of 2003. Climate Dynamics, 28. pp. 53-66.

Pezzulli, S., Frederic, P., Majithia, S., Sabbagh, S., Black, E., Sutton, R. and Stephenson, D. (2006) The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 22 (2). pp. 113-125. ISSN 1524-1904

Sutton, R. T. and Hodson, D. L. R. (2005) Atlantic Ocean forcing of North American and European summer climate. Science, 309 (5731). pp. 115-118.

Spencer, H., Sutton, R. T., Slingo, J. M., Roberts, M. and Black, E. (2005) Indian Ocean climate and dipole variability in Hadley Centre coupled GCMs. Journal Of Climate, 18 (13). pp. 2286-2307. ISSN 1520-0442

Sutton, R. (2005) Informing adaptation: New challenges for the climate modelling community. Weather, 60. p. 186.

Dong, B. W. and Sutton, R. T. (2005) Mechanism of interdecadal thermohaline circulation variability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. Journal Of Climate, 18 (8). pp. 1117-1135. ISSN 1520-0442

Sutton, R. T., Mathieu, P. P., Collins, M. and Dong, B. (2005) Response to comment by Geert van Oldenburgh on "Predictability of winter climate over the North Atlantic European region during ENSO events". Journal Of Climate, 18 (14). pp. 2773-2774. ISSN 1520-0442

Shaffrey, L. and Sutton, R. (2004) The interannual variability of energy transports within and over the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled climate model. Journal Of Climate, 17 (7). pp. 1433-1448. ISSN 1520-0442

Rodwell, M. J., Drevillon, M., Frankignoul, C., Hurrell, J. W., Pohlmann, H., Stendel, M. and Sutton, R. T. (2004) North Atlantic forcing of climate and its uncertainty from a multi-model experiment. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 130 (601). pp. 2013-2032. ISSN 1477-870X

Mathieu, P. P., Sutton, R. T., Dong, B. and Collins, M. (2004) Predictability of winter climate over the North Atlantic European region during ENSO events. Journal Of Climate, 17 (10). pp. 1953-1974. ISSN 1520-0442

Frankignoul, C., Kestenare, E., Botzet, M., Carril, A. F., Drange, H., Pardaens, A., Terray, L. and Sutton, R. (2004) An intercomparison between the surface heat flux feedback in five coupled models, COADS and the NCEP reanalysis. Climate Dynamics, 22 (4). pp. 373-388.

Sutton, R.T. and Hodson, D.L.R. (2003) Influence of the ocean on North Atlantic climate variability 1871-1999. Journal Of Climate, 16. pp. 3296-3313. ISSN 1520-0442

Dong, B.W. and Sutton, R.T. (2003) Variability of Atlantic Ocean heat transport and its effects on the atmosphere. Annales Geophysicae, 46. pp. 87-97.

Book or Report Section

Dong, B., Dufresne, J.-L., Gualdi, S., Friedlingstein, P., Keenlyside, N., Maheras, P., Salas, D., Sutton, R. T. and Terray, L. (2009) Understanding the processes governing climate variability and change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events. In: Summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project. Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK, pp. 79-93.

Conference or Workshop Item

Sutton, R.T., Hodson, D.L.R. and Mathieu, P.P. (2003) The role of the Atlantic Ocean in climate forecasting. Proceedings of the ECMWF workshop on the role of the upper ocean in medium and extended range forecasting. In: ECMWF.