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Rare event simulation of extreme European winter rainfall in an intermediate complexity climate model

Wouters, J., Schiemann, R. K. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856 and Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2023) Rare event simulation of extreme European winter rainfall in an intermediate complexity climate model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 15 (4). e2022MS003537. ISSN 1942-2466

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To link to this item DOI: 10.1029/2022MS003537

Abstract/Summary

We test the application of a rare event simulation algorithm to accelerate the sampling of extreme winter rainfall over Europe in a climate model. The genealogical particle analysis algorithm, an ensemble method that interrupts the simulation at intermediate times to clone realizations in which an extreme event is developing, is applied to the intermediate complexity general circulation model PlaSim. We show that the algorithm strongly reduces the numerical effort required to estimate probabilities of extremes, demonstrating the potential of rare event simulation of seasonal precipitation extremes.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Interdisciplinary Research Centres (IDRCs) > Centre for the Mathematics of Planet Earth (CMPE)
Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS
ID Code:111397
Publisher:American Geophysical Union

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