Abstract/Summary

This document outlines quantitative climate change storylines and their qualitative environmental and socio- economic impacts for the Euphrates and Tigris rivers basin region, providing an analysis of climate change in the region and initial assessment of potential impacts. The climate storylines are based on a range of scenarios generated by Regional Climate Models and other sources of climate information. The integrated climate- environmental-socioeconomic narrative storylines of impacts are qualitatively analyzed for two livelihood zones in the northern Iraq governorates of Anbar and Ninewa. The integrated storylines provide an illustration of the quantitative impact assessment based on hydrological modelling with SWAT model planned for the next phase of the work. Based on the present analysis and consultation with UNEP, a plan for the next phase is outlined for developing basin-wide adaptation option analysis, supported by on the ground stakeholder engagement and hydrological modelling.