Re-examining historical trends of tropical cyclone frequency

Jones, K. R., Zhuo, J.-Y., Camargo, S. J., Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Bell, S. S. and Chand, S. S. (2026) Re-examining historical trends of tropical cyclone frequency. Geophysical Research Letters, 53 (14). e2026GL122083. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: 10.1029/2026GL122083

Abstract/Summary

The short duration of high-quality, reliable tropical cyclone (TC) observations limits our ability to detect long-term trends. Here, we analyze TC frequency trends in the NOAA 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) versions 3 and 2c over the 19th and 20th centuries. TC counts in these datasets are particularly sensitive to TC lifetime maximum wind intensity thresholds, even with the sign of the trends reversed. Higher thresholds identify more organized vortex circulations and reveal observational inconsistencies inherited from assimilated sea-level-pressure data. Similar analysis is performed in other reanalysis datasets and tracking algorithms to assess the robustness of our results. Changes in large-scale environmental fields influencing TC activity since the pre-industrial era differ markedly between 20CR versions 3 and 2c, further reducing confidence in reanalysis-based trend assessments. Our results underscore the continuing challenge of inferring robust, long-term TC frequency changes from historical reanalyses.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/128267
Identification Number/DOI	10.1029/2026GL122083
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	American Geophysical Union
Download/View statistics	View download statistics for this item