Constraints on climate change stabilization based on observations of Earth's energy imbalance

Douville, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6074-6467 and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2026) Constraints on climate change stabilization based on observations of Earth's energy imbalance. Geophysical Research Letters, 53 (10). ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2025GL121056

Abstract/Summary

The Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) at the top of the atmosphere is a key indicator of climate change that determines the Earth's heating rate. Here, we use a global reconstruction of surface temperature and EEI measurements to constrain global projections of the Earth heating rate until the end of the century. Our robust statistical method is shown to withstand changes in the prior distribution or the length of the EEI record, and to perform well when evaluated against independent pseudo-observations. Results show that the reversal of the Earth heating rate is very unlikely to occur before the early 2040s, even under a low emission scenario. This is more than 10 years later than expected from the raw projections, with significant implications for both mitigation and adaptation policies. Future research is however needed to better attribute the observed EEI changes and to explore the patterns of recent versus future EEI changes. Plain Language Summary The Earth is currently gaining more energy from the Sun than it is losing back to space. This imbalance-called the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) In this study, we combine global surface temperature data with measurements of this heat imbalance at the top of the atmosphere to estimate how fast the planet will keep warming through the rest of the century. For this purpose, we use a robust statistical method and test it in different ways to make sure the results are reliable. Our findings suggest that the Earth will keep gaining heat for at least the next couple of decades. Even in a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions are kept low, it's very unlikely that this warming trend will start to reverse before the early 2040s. This is more than 10 years later than earlier estimates suggested, which matters for planning how to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts. The study also notes that more research is needed to better understand why the Earth's heat imbalance is increasing faster than expected.ed

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/129999
Identification Number/DOI	10.1029/2025GL121056
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO) Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	American Geophysical Union
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