Characterising European low renewable availability events in present and future climate model data

Brayshaw, D. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362, Poovadiyil, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2854-503X, Fischer, L. W. and Kirk‐Davidoff, D. B. (2026) Characterising European low renewable availability events in present and future climate model data. Meteorological Applications, 33 (3). e70192. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: 10.1002/met.70192

Abstract/Summary

Multi‐day periods featuring low wind and solar generation (‘Dunkelflaute’, DF) are an increasing concern for European electricity systems. Understanding DF and how they may change is critical for assessing the risk of electricity supply shortfalls in power systems containing high levels of variable renewable generation. This study assesses the suitability of data from two versions of the EU's flagship Copernicus climate service (C3S‐Energy and ECEM) for characterising DF events in the present‐day, and uses these datasets to develop plausible scenarios of change under 2°C global warming. After controlling for issues of dataset quality, a broadly consistent picture of DF behaviour over the historic period (1980–2010) emerges. As expected, DF predominantly occurs in winter and responds coherently to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as the dominant large‐scale mode of regional atmospheric variability. The continental‐scale patterns of behaviour seen in the observationally based components of the datasets are well‐replicated in the corresponding climate model‐based data, but individual simulations can differ substantially at the scale of individual countries (these differences are found both within and between each dataset). The multi‐model mean response to a 2°C global warming scenario in both ECEM and C3S‐Energy suggests an increase in DF events ~5%–25% over much of the European domain (particularly the north and west). However, individual model responses exhibit very different patterns with one model suggesting a widespread ~5%–25% decrease in DF (i.e., a change of similar magnitude but opposing direction). Five distinct storylines of a 2°C global warming scenario are therefore proposed, providing a compromise between representing diversity of the individual responses while retaining a tractable set of outcomes. The ability to robustly project future DF behaviour (and future renewable energy climate more broadly) is severely limited by the small sample of climate projections typically available. Future analysis should therefore seek to consider a more extensive and comprehensive ensemble of climate simulations to develop greater confidence and understanding.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/130627
Identification Number/DOI	10.1002/met.70192
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Interdisciplinary centres and themes > Energy Research Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Royal Meteorological Society
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