ENSO influence on Bay of Bengal cyclogenesis confined to low latitudes

Roose, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6444-4837, Ajayamohan, R. S., Ray, P., Mohan, P. R. and Mohanakumar, K. (2022) ENSO influence on Bay of Bengal cyclogenesis confined to low latitudes. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 5. 31. ISSN 2397-3722 doi: 10.1038/s41612-022-00252-8

Abstract/Summary

The low-latitudinal cyclones (LLCs, originating between 5°N--10°N) constituteþinspace≈40% of tropical cyclones (TCs) formed in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). We investigate the interannual variability of post-monsoonal (October to December) BoB LLCs and their teleconnection with El Ni\~o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It is found that the years with the fewer number of BoB LLCs are associated with anomalous equatorial easterlies that are largely connected with the El Ni\~o and positive IOD. Likewise, equatorial westerly phases, often associated with the La Ni\~a and negative IOD years, favour the LLC formation by providing the initial spin-up required for cyclogenesis. This teleconnection between ENSO/IOD and BoB TC frequency is confined in the low-latitudinal region with little influence for cyclogenesis north of 10°N during ENSO and IOD except during negative IOD. These results may help extend the lead time and improve the seasonal prediction of BoB TCs.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/130681
Identification Number/DOI	10.1038/s41612-022-00252-8
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	No Reading authors. Back catalogue items Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Nature
Download/View statistics	View download statistics for this item