Is Europe under UNSEEN risk of cyclones of tropical origin?

Ng, K. S., Bianco, E., Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X and Leckebusch, G. C. (2026) Is Europe under UNSEEN risk of cyclones of tropical origin? Geophysical Research Letters, 53 (15). e2025GL121080. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: 10.1029/2025GL121080

Abstract/Summary

The impacts and potential multidecadal variability of cyclones of tropical origin (CTOs) remain poorly understood, particularly when these events make landfall or pass near Europe (named CTO-Es) or cause measurable impacts in Europe (named CTO-EIs). Following the UNprecedented Simulation of Extremes using Ensembles (UNSEEN) approach, we generate CTO event sets from twentieth-century hindcasts. The UNSEEN sets produce similar CTO-Es spatial patterns to ERA-20C but provide 45-69 times more events, enabling robust hazard assessment. Our results indicate that CTO-EIs pose a greater risk to the British Isles than to continental Europe. While CTO-E activity reflects multidecadal variability, the CTO-EI to CTO-E ratio is insensitive to the PDO or AMO, suggesting largely stochastic occurrences under favorable conditions. The return period of historical CTO-EIs such as Hurricane Lili (1996) is estimated at 21.2-32.9 years, with doubled-severity events at 47.8-91.5 years.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/130915
Identification Number/DOI	10.1029/2025GL121080
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	American Geophysical Union
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