Identifying the diabatic processes driving the evolution of a sting jet: the case of Storm Ciarán

Volonté, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X, Joos, H., Lee, M. H. F., Forbes, R. and Bouffet-Klein, R. (2026) Identifying the diabatic processes driving the evolution of a sting jet: the case of Storm Ciarán. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 7 (3). pp. 1241-1264. ISSN 2698-4016 doi: 10.5194/wcd-7-1241-2026

Abstract/Summary

Sting jets (SJs) are airstreams that can lead to exceptionally strong and damaging winds in intense extratropical cyclones. Whilst there is extensive evidence that SJ descent can be associated with the release of symmetric instability (SI), the individual diabatic processes driving the onset of this instability have not yet been identified and characterised. In our study we tackle this question by analysing a near-operational numerical weather prediction model simulation of Storm Ciarán (1 November 2023), that featured a SJ associated with damaging winds and characterised by the development of SI (indicated by negative potential vorticity, PV) during its evolution. Diabatic tendencies are included in the output of this simulation and are used in our study, including by being traced on Lagrangian trajectories, to illustrate the contributions of the individual diabatic processes to the onset of SI during the evolution of the SJ. The SJ in our simulation is consistent in terms of magnitude, timing and structure with operational forecasts, observations and literature. This SJ develops in an environment characterised by multiple bands of negative PV in the cloud head. It becomes part of one of such filaments as it ascends near the bent-back warm front before descending off the tip of the cloud head. The decrease in PV along the SJ captured by diabatic tendencies is mainly associated with four moist processes: condensation of water vapour, evaporation of cloud water, melting of ice and snow and sublimation of snow. The first three show large variability across trajectories and, particularly for condensation, positive and negative extremes near the trajectories. The limited decrease in PV caused by the sublimation of snow is instead robust and consistent across trajectories. The reduction in buoyancy caused by the cooling from snow sublimation and melting favours the start of SJ descent, rather than the continuation of as cent. Conditions allowing the formation of SJ-like airstreams from negative PV filaments persist as the storm develops and are associated with condensation and melting. Sublimation of snow is only present when conditions are most favourable and lead to the formation of the main SJ. The decrease in PV observed on the SJ trajectories at this time is only partially captured by diabatic tendencies. This substantial discrepancy exposes the limitations of the methodology and can be ascribed to the use of offline trajectories computed from hourly instantaneous model data in an environment characterised by fast-changing and non linear processes and by fully three-dimensional and small-scale patterns. This is particularly true in the narrow region near the bent-back warm front and the tip of the cloud head, in which the SJ travels as SI develops along it. In summary, in this study we analyse diabatic tendencies in a model simulation of Storm Ciarán, acknowledging their limitations, to reveal the role of different moist processes in causing the onset of instability on a SJ and therefore driving its intensification. The complex interplay between these processes highlights the unique properties of the narrow region in the cloud head in which the SJ develops before descending towards the surface and bringing damaging winds.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/131035
Identification Number/DOI	10.5194/wcd-7-1241-2026
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	European Geosciences Union
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