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Data dilemmas in forecasting European office market rents

Kennedy, P., Lee, S. and McAllister, P., (2007) Data dilemmas in forecasting European office market rents. Working Papers in Real Estate & Planning. 10/07. Working Paper. University of Reading, Reading. pp27.

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This paper uses data provided by three major real estate advisory firms to investigate the level and pattern of variation in the measurement of historic real estate rental values for the main European office centres. The paper assesses the extent to which the data providing organizations agree on historic market performance in terms of returns, risk and timing and examines the relationship between market maturity and agreement. The analysis suggests that at the aggregate level and for many markets, there is substantial agreement on direction, quantity and timing of market change. However, there is substantial variability in the level of agreement among cities. The paper also assesses whether the different data sets produce different explanatory models and market forecast. It is concluded that, although disagreement on the direction of market change is high for many market, the different data sets often produce similar explanatory models and predict similar relative performance.

Item Type:Report (Working Paper)
Divisions:Henley Business School > Real Estate and Planning
ID Code:20998
Publisher:University of Reading
Publisher Statement:The copyright of each working paper remains with the author. If you wish to quote from or cite any paper please contact the appropriate author; in some cases a more recent version of the paper may have been published elsewhere.


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