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Information and efficiency: goal arrival in soccer betting

Croxson, K. and James Reade, J. ORCID: (2013) Information and efficiency: goal arrival in soccer betting. The Economic Journal, 124 (575). pp. 62-91. ISSN 0013-0133

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To link to this item DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12033


An efficient market incorporates news into prices immediately and fully. Tests for efficiency in financial markets have been undermined by information leakage. We test for efficiency in sports betting markets – real-world markets where news breaks remarkably cleanly. Applying a novel identification to high-frequency data, we investigate the reaction of prices to goals scored on the ‘cusp’ of half-time. This strategy allows us to separate the market's response to major news (a goal), from its reaction to the continual flow of minor game-time news. On our evidence, prices update swiftly and fully.

Item Type:Article
Divisions:Arts, Humanities and Social Science > School of Politics, Economics and International Relations > Economics
ID Code:34884

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