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Regional projections of extreme apparent temperature days in Africa and the related potential risk to human health

Garland, R. M., Matooane, M., Engelbrecht, F. A., Bopape, M.-J. M., Landman, W. A., Naidoo, M., van de Merwe, J. and Wright, C. Y. (2015) Regional projections of extreme apparent temperature days in Africa and the related potential risk to human health. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 12 (10). pp. 12577-12604. ISSN 1660-4601

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To link to this item DOI: 10.3390/ijerph121012577


Regional climate modelling was used to produce high resolution climate projections for Africa, under a “business as usual scenario”, that were translated into potential health impacts utilizing a heat index that relates apparent temperature to health impacts. The continent is projected to see increases in the number of days when health may be adversely affected by increasing maximum apparent temperatures (AT) due to climate change. Additionally, climate projections indicate that the increases in AT results in a moving of days from the less severe to the more severe Symptom Bands. The analysis of the rate of increasing temperatures assisted in identifying areas, such as the East African highlands, where health may be at increasing risk due to both large increases in the absolute number of hot days, and due to the high rate of increase. The projections described here can be used by health stakeholders in Africa to assist in the development of appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the potential health impacts from climate change.

Item Type:Article
Divisions:Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:51046
Publisher:MDPI Publishing


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