Accessibility navigation

Identifying GM crops for future cultivation in the EU through a Delphi forecasting exercise

McFarlane, I. D., Jones, P. J., Park, J. R. and Tranter, R. B. (2018) Identifying GM crops for future cultivation in the EU through a Delphi forecasting exercise. AgBioForum, 21 (1). pp. 35-43. ISSN 1522-936X

Text - Accepted Version
· Please see our End User Agreement before downloading.


It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing.

Official URL:


This paper reports on a Delphi forecasting exercise carried out to identify crop traits that could feasibly be introduced to the advantage of arable farmers, and for the general benefit of the public, in EU member states. An expert stakeholder panel was recruited and asked for opinions on scenarios concerning the availability of GM events, and also scenarios that envisage novel crops developed using advanced technology not classified as GM. In a second round of consultation, panel members commented anonymously on opinions elicited in the first phase. Results indicate that crops with input traits most likely to become available in the EU before 2025 are HTIR maize, HT sugarbeet and HT soybean; these are already widely adopted outside Europe. The crops with output traits most likely to become available and offering benefits to consumers are winter-sown varieties of rape with reduced saturated fats, spring varieties of which are already available outside EU (notably Canadian Canola).

Item Type:Article
Divisions:Life Sciences > School of Agriculture, Policy and Development > Department of Agri-Food Economics & Marketing
ID Code:77267


Downloads per month over past year

University Staff: Request a correction | Centaur Editors: Update this record

Page navigation