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Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones

Hawcroft, M., Walsh, E., Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X and Zappa, G. (2018) Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones. Environmental Research Letters, 13. 124006. ISSN 1748-9326

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To link to this item DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaed59

Abstract/Summary

For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in the mid-latitude storm tracks are key to understanding the impacts of climate warming, but projections of their future location in current climate models are affected by large uncertainty. Here, we show that in spite of this uncertainty in the atmospheric circulation response to warming, by analysing the behaviour of the storms (or extratropical cyclones) themselves, projections of change in the number of the most intensely precipitating extratropical cyclones are substantial and consistent across models. In particular, we show large increases in the frequency of extreme extratropical cyclones (those above the present day 99th percentile of precipitation intensity) by the end of the century. In both Europe and North America, these intensely precipitating extratropical cyclones are projected to more than triple in number by the end of the century unless greenhouse gas emissions are mitigated. Such changes in extratropical cyclone behaviour may have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating extratropical cyclones are responsible for many large-scale flooding events, and associated severe economic losses, in these regions.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:80381
Publisher:Institute of Physics

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