Accessibility navigation

How important are post-tropical cyclones for European windstorm risk?

Sainsbury, E. M., Schiemann, R. K. H. ORCID:, Hodges, K. I., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID:, Baker, A. J. ORCID: and Bhatia, K. T. (2020) How important are post-tropical cyclones for European windstorm risk? Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (18). e2020GL089853. ISSN 0094-8276

Text (Open Access) - Published Version
· Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.
· Please see our End User Agreement before downloading.

[img] Text - Accepted Version
· Restricted to Repository staff only


It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing.

To link to this item DOI: 10.1029/2020GL089853


Post-tropical cyclones (PTCs) extend many hazards associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) to the mid-latitudes. Despite recent high-impact cases affecting Europe such as Ophelia, little research has been done to characterize the risk of PTCs. Here we compare the climatologies and intensity distributions of mid-latitude cyclones (MLCs) and PTCs in the North Atlantic and Europe by tracking cyclones in the ERA5 reanalysis. Considering hurricane-season cyclones impacting Northern Europe, PTCs show a significantly higher mean maximum intensity than MLCs, but make only a small contribution to total windstorm risk. Our results show that a disproportionately large fraction of high-intensity cyclones impacting Europe during hurricane season are PTCs. The fraction of PTCs impacting N Europe with storm-force (>25ms-1) winds is approximately ten times higher than for MLCs. Less than 1% of cyclones impacting Northern Europe are identified to be PTCs. This rises to 8.8% when considering cyclones which impact with storm-force winds.

Item Type:Article
Divisions:Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS
Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:92869
Publisher:American Geophysical Union


Downloads per month over past year

University Staff: Request a correction | Centaur Editors: Update this record

Page navigation