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The return of wooded landscapes in Wales: an exploration of possible post-Brexit futures

Manzoor, S. A., Griffiths, G., Rose, D. and Lukac, M. ORCID: (2021) The return of wooded landscapes in Wales: an exploration of possible post-Brexit futures. Land, 10 (1). 59. ISSN 2073-445X

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To link to this item DOI: 10.3390/land10010059


Changes in agricultural policy may have a rapid impact even on landscapes which have taken millennia to form. Here we explore the potential impact of the UK leaving the EU as a catalyst for profound changes in the pastoral landscapes of Wales. Impending change of the trading regime governing agricultural produce, concurrent with public pressure to use agricultural subsidies for environmental goals, may lead to unforeseen consequences for the Welsh natural environment. We employ a combination of change demand modelling and a ‘story and simulation approach’ to project the effect of five hypothetical plausible scenarios on land use and land use change in Wales by 2030. We show that the most extreme trade scenario would result in a significant expansion of broadleaf woodland across much of Wales. By contrast, the ‘green futures’ scenario introduced to supersede the Common Agricultural Policy, results in significant expansion of woodland but not at the level seen with the more extreme trade scenarios.

Item Type:Article
Divisions:Life Sciences > School of Agriculture, Policy and Development > Economic and Social Sciences Division > Food Economics and Marketing (FEM)
Life Sciences > School of Agriculture, Policy and Development > Biodiversity, Crops and Agroecosystems Division > Centre for Agri-environmental Research (CAER)
ID Code:95413


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