Navigating a demographically bifurcated multipolar world: labor, capital, and the multinational firm

Beugelsdijk, S. and Narula, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4266-2681 (2026) Navigating a demographically bifurcated multipolar world: labor, capital, and the multinational firm. Journal of International Business Policy. ISSN 2522-0705 (In Press)

Abstract/Summary

While demographic change is an acknowledged influence on location advantages, we highlight the lesser-studied phenomenon of demographic bifurcation—the simultaneous co-existence of rapidly aging, shrinking populations in some countries, and expanding working-age populations in others. How does demographic bifurcation affect the location choices of multinational firms, and the movement of capital and labor in a world characterized by geo-economic fragmentation that discourages cross-border migration? How will multinational firms respond, given their expertise in geo-arbitrage? We discuss emerging core-periphery models in a world consisting of geo-economic spheres of influence, how multinational firms might exploit new arbitrage opportunities, and how policymakers must find ways to avoid bifurcation becoming a liability. For demographic change not to become a liability, policymakers must coordinate within these interconnected domains, as new interdependencies emerge. We call for an interdisciplinary research agenda that integrates demography into the core of international business strategy and global value chain theory.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/129960
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Henley Business School > International Business and Strategy
Publisher	Palgrave Macmillan
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