Article

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Ortega, P., Robson, J. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Menary, M., Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Blaker, A., Germe, A., Hirschi, J. J.-M., Sinha, B., Hermanson, L. and Yeager, S. (2021) Labrador Sea subsurface density as a precursor of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: a multi-model study. Earth System Dynamics, 12 (2). pp. 419-438. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-419-2021

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Dong, B., Sutton, R. T., Shaffrey, L. and Wilcox, L. J. (2020) Attribution of 2012 extreme climate events: does air-sea interaction matter? Climate Dynamics, 55 (5-6). pp. 1225-1245. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05321-3

Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2020) ESD Ideas: global climate response scenarios for IPCC assessments. Earth System Dynamics, 11. pp. 751-754. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-751-2020

Menary, M. B., Robson, J., Allan, R., Booth, B. B. B., Cassou, C., Gastineau, G., Gregory, J., Hodson, D., Jones, C., Mignot, J., Ringer, M., Sutton, R., Wilcox, L. and Zhang, R. (2020) Aerosol-forced AMOC changes in CMIP6 historical simulations. Geophysical Research Letters. e2020GL088166. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088166

Ossó, A., Sutton, R., Shaffrey, L. and Dong, B. (2020) Development, amplification, and decay of Atlantic/European summer weather patterns linked to spring North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Journal of Climate, 33 (14). pp. 5939-5951. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0613.1

Dittus, A. J., Hawkins, E., Wilcox, L. J., Sutton, R., Smith, C. J., Andrews, M. B. and Forster, P. M. (2020) Sensitivity of historical climate simulations to uncertain aerosol forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (13). e2019GL085806. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085806

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Tian, F., Dong, B., Robson, J., Sutton, R. and Wilcox, L. (2020) Processes shaping the spatial pattern and seasonality of the surface air temperature response to anthropogenic forcing. Climate Dynamics, 54 (9-10). pp. 3959-3975. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05211-8

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Frame, D., Harrington, L., Joshi, M., King, A., Rojas, M. and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2020) Observed emergence of the climate change signal: from the familiar to the unknown. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (6). e2019GL086259. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086259

Ossó, A., Shaffrey, L., Dong, B. and Sutton, R. (2019) Impact of air-sea coupling on northern hemisphere summer climate and the monsoon-desert teleconnection. Climate Dynamics, 53 (7-8). pp. 5063-5078. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04846-6

Tian, F., Dong, B., Robson, J., Sutton, R. and Tett, S. (2019) Projected near term changes in the East Asian summer monsoon and its uncertainty. Environmental Research Letters, 14 (8). 084038. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab28a6

Zhang, R., Sutton, R., Danabasoglu, G., Kwon, Y.‐O., Marsh, R., Yeager, S. G., Amrhein, D. E. and Little, C. M. (2019) A review of the role of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in Atlantic multidecadal variability and associated climate impacts. Reviews of Geophysics, 57 (2). pp. 316-375. ISSN 8755-1209 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000644

Sutton, R. (2019) Climate science needs to take risk assessment much more seriously. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100 (9). pp. 1637-1642. ISSN 0003-0007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0280.1

Dong, B., Wilcox, L. J., Highwood, E. J. and Sutton, R. T. (2019) Impacts of recent decadal changes in Asian aerosols on the East Asian summer monsoon: roles of aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions. Climate Dynamics, 53 (5-6). pp. 3235-3256. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04698-0 (Dong, B., Wilcox, L.J., Highwood, E.J. et al. Clim Dyn (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04698-0)

Robson, J., Sutton, R. T., Archibald, A., Cooper, F., Christensen, M., Gray, L. J., Holliday, N. P., Macintosh, C., McMillan, M., Moat, B., Russo, M., Tilling, R., Carslaw, K., Desbruyères, D., Embury, O., Feltham, D. L., Grosvenor, D. P., Josey, S., King, B., Lewis, A., McCarthy, G. D., Merchant, C., New, A. L., O'Reilly, C. H., Osprey, S. M., Read, K., Scaife, A., Shepherd, A., Sinha, B., Smeed, D., Smith, D., Ridout, A., Woollings, T. and Yang, M. (2018) Recent multivariate changes in the North Atlantic climate system, with a focus on 2005-2016. International Journal of Climatology, 38 (12). pp. 5050-5076. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5815

Tian, F., Dong, B., Robson, J. and Sutton, R. (2018) Forced decadal changes in the East Asian summer monsoon: the roles of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols. Climate Dynamics, 51 (9-10). pp. 3699-3715. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4105-7

Baker, L. H., Shaffrey, L. C., Sutton, R. T., Weisheimer, A. and Scaife, A. A. (2018) An intercomparison of skill and overconfidence/underconfidence of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in multimodel seasonal forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (15). pp. 7808-7817. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078838

Wilcox, L. J., Yiou, P., Hauser, M., Lott, F. C., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Colfescu, I., Dong, B., Hegerl, G., Shaffrey, L. and Sutton, R. (2018) Multiple perspectives on the attribution of the extreme European summer of 2012 to climate change. Climate Dynamics, 50 (9-10). pp. 3537-3555. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3822-7

Sutton, R. T., McCarthy, G. D., Robson, J., Sinha, B., Archibald, A. T. and Gray, L. J. (2018) Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the U.K. ACSIS program. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99 (2). pp. 415-425. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1

Osso, A., Sutton, R., Shaffrey, L. and Dong, B. (2018) Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115 (1). pp. 59-63. ISSN 0027-8424 doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1713146114

Collins, M., Minobe, S., Barreiro, M., Bordoni, S., Kaspi, Y., Kuwano-Yoshida, A., Keenlyside, N., Manzini, E., O'Reilly, C. H., Sutton, R., Xie, S.-P. and Zolina, O. (2018) Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics. Nature Climate Change, 8. pp. 101-108. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0059-8

Sutton, R. T. (2018) ESD ideas: a simple proposal to improve the contribution of IPCC WGI to the assessment and communication of climate change risks. Earth System Dynamics, 9 (4). pp. 1155-1158. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1155-2018

Ortega, P., Robson, J., Sutton, R. T. and Andrews, M. B. (2017) Mechanisms of decadal variability in the Labrador Sea and the wider North Atlantic in a high-resolution climate model. Climate Dynamics, 49 (7-8). pp. 2625-2647. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3467-y

Dong, B., Sutton, R. T., Shaffrey, L. and Klingaman, N. P. (2017) Attribution of forced decadal climate change in coupled and uncoupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments. Journal of Climate, 30 (16). pp. 6203-6223. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0578.1

Dong, B., Sutton, R. T. and Shaffrey, L. (2017) Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Climate Dynamics, 48 (5). pp. 1537-1554. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3158-8

Shaffrey, L. C., Hodson, D., Robson, J., Stevens, D. P., Hawkins, E., Polo, I., Stevens, I., Sutton, R. T., Lister, G., Iwi, A., Smith, D. and Stephens, A. (2017) Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation. Climate Dynamics, 48 (1). pp. 297-311. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3075-x

Dong, B., Sutton, R., Shaffrey, L. and Wilcox, L. (2016) The 2015 European heat wave. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97. S57-S62. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0140.1

Dong, B., Sutton, R. T., Chen, W., Liu, X., Lu, R. and Sun, Y. (2016) Abrupt summer warming and changes in temperature extremes over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s: drivers and physical processes. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 33 (9). pp. 1005-1023. ISSN 1861-9533 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-016-5247-3

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. (2016) Connecting climate model projections of global temperature change with the real world. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97 (6). pp. 963-980. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00154.1

Zhang, R., Sutton, R., Danabasoglu, G., Delworth, T. L., Kim, W. M., Robson, J. and Yeager, S. G. (2016) Comment on “The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation”. Science, 352 (6293). p. 1527. ISSN 1095-9203 doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf1660

Dong, B., Sutton, R. T., Highwood, E. J. and Wilcox, L. J. (2016) Preferred response of the East Asian summer monsoon to local and non-local anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions. Climate Dynamics, 46 (5). pp. 1733-1751. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2671-5

Robson, J., Ortega, P. and Sutton, R. (2016) A reversal of climatic trends in the North Atlantic since 2005. Nature Geoscience, 9 (7). pp. 513-517. ISSN 1752-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2727

Wilcox, L., Dong, B., Sutton, R. and Highwood, E. (2015) The 2014 hot, dry summer in Northeast Asia. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96 (12). S105-S110. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00123.1

Petrie, R. E., Shaffrey, L. C. and Sutton, R. T. (2015) Atmospheric impact of Arctic Sea ice loss in a coupled ocean–atmosphere simulation. Journal of Climate, 28 (24). pp. 9606-9622. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0316.1

Sutton, R., Suckling, E. and Hawkins, E. (2015) What does global mean temperature tell us about local climate? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 373. 20140426. ISSN 1364-503X doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0426

Menary, M. B., Hodson, D. L. R., Robson, J. I., Sutton, R. T. and Wood, R. A. (2015) A mechanism of internal decadal atlantic ocean variability in a high-resolution coupled climate model. Journal of Climate, 28 (19). pp. 7764-7785. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0106.1

Menary, M. B., Hodson, D. L. R., Robson, J. I., Sutton, R. T., Wood, R. A. and Hunt, J. A. (2015) Exploring the impact of CMIP5 model biases on the simulation of North Atlantic decadal variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (14). pp. 5926-5934. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064360

Dong, B. and Sutton, R. (2015) Dominant role of greenhouse-gas forcing in the recovery of Sahel rainfall. Nature Climate Change, 5 (8). pp. 757-760. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2664

Petrie, R. E., Shaffrey, L. C. and Sutton, R. T. (2015) Atmospheric response in summer linked to recent Arctic sea ice loss. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (691). pp. 2070-2076. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2502 (Part B)

Smith, R. S., Sutton, R. and Gregory, J. M. (2014) The impact of salinity perturbations on the future uptake of heat by the Atlantic Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (24). pp. 9072-9079. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062169

Hermanson, L., Dunstone, N., Haines, K., Robson, J., Smith, D. and Sutton, R. (2014) A novel transport assimilation method for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26°N. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140 (685). pp. 2563-2572. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2321

Hodson, D. L. R., Robson, J. I. and Sutton, R. T. (2014) An anatomy of the cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean in the 1960s and 1970s. Journal of Climate, 27 (21). pp. 8229-8243. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00301.1

Polo, I., Robson, J., Sutton, R. and Balmaseda, M. A. (2014) The importance of wind and buoyancy forcing for the boundary density variations and the geostrophic component of the AMOC at 26°N. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 44 (9). pp. 2387-2408. ISSN 0022-3670 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-13-0264.1

Dong, B., Sutton, R. and Shaffrey, L. (2014) The 2013 hot, dry summer in Western Europe. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95 (9). S61-S66. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1

Dong, B., Sutton, R. T., Highwood, E. and Wilcox, L. (2014) The impacts of European and Asian anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions on Sahel rainfall. Journal of Climate, 27 (18). pp. 7000-7017. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00769.1

Hawkins, E., Anderson, B., Diffenbaugh, N., Mahlstein, I., Betts, R., Hegerl, G., Joshi, M., Knutti, R., McNeall, D., Solomon, S., Sutton, R., Syktus, J. and Vecchi, G. (2014) Uncertainties in the timing of unprecedented climates. Nature, 511 (7507). E3-E5. ISSN 0028-0836 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13523

Hawkins, E., Dong, B., Robson, J., Sutton, R. and Smith, D. (2014) The interpretation and use of biases in decadal climate predictions. Journal of Climate, 27 (8). pp. 2931-2947. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00473.1

Robson, J., Sutton, R. and Smith, D. (2014) Decadal predictions of the cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic in the 1960s and the role of ocean circulation. Climate Dynamics, 42 (9-10). pp. 2353-2365. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2115-7

Meehl, G. A., Goddard, L., Boer, G., Burgman, R., Branstator, G., Cassou, C., Corti, S., Danabasoglu, G., Doblas-Reyes, F., Hawkins, E., Karspeck, A., Kimoto, M., Kumar, A., Matei, D., Mignot, J., Msadek, R., Pohlmann, H., Rienecker, M., Rosati, T., Schneider, E., Smith, D., Sutton, R., Teng, H., Van Oldenborgh, G. J., Vecchi, G. and Yeager, S. (2014) Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95 (2). pp. 243-267. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1

Robson, J., Hodson, D., Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. (2014) Atlantic overturning in decline? Nature Geoscience, 7 (1). pp. 2-3. ISSN 1752-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2050

Gray, L. J., Scaife, A. A., Mitchell, D. M., Osprey, S., Ineson, S., Hardiman, S., Butchart, N., Knight, J., Sutton, R. and Kodera, K. (2013) A lagged response to the 11 year solar cycle in observed winter Atlantic/European weather patterns. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118 (24). 13,405-13,420. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020062

Dong, B., Sutton, R. T., Woollings, T. and Hodges, K. (2013) Variability of the North Atlantic summer storm track: mechanisms and impacts on European climate. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (3). 034037. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034037

Robson, J., Sutton, R. and Smith, D. (2013) Predictable climate impacts of the decadal changes in the ocean in the 1990s. Journal of Climate, 26 (17). pp. 6329-6339. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00827.1

Dong, B., Sutton, R. and Woollings, T. (2013) The extreme European summer 2012. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 94 (9). s28-s32. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00085.1

Goddard, L., Kumar, A., Solomon, A., Smith, D., Boer, G., Gonzalez, P., Kharin, V., Merryfield, W., Deser, C., Mason, S. J., Kirtman, B. P., Msadek, R., Sutton, R., Hawkins, E., Fricker, T., Hegerl, G., Ferro, C. A. T., Stephenson, D. B., Meehl, G. A., Stockdale, T., Burgman, R., Greene, A. M., Kushnir, Y., Newman, M., Carton, J., Fukumori, I. and Delworth, T. (2013) A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments. Climate Dynamics, 40 (1-2). pp. 245-272. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2

Polo, I., Dong, B. W. and Sutton, R. T. (2013) Changes in tropical Atlantic interannual variability from a substantial weakening of the meridional overturning circulation. Climate Dynamics, 41 (9-10). pp. 2765-2784. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1716-x

Zhang, R., Delworth, T. L., Sutton, R., Hodson, D. L. R., Dixon, K. W., Held, I. M., Kushnir, Y., Marshall, J., Ming, Y., Msadek, R., Robson, J., Rosati, A. J., Ting, M. and Vecchi, G. A. (2013) Have aerosols caused the observed Atlantic multidecadal variability? Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 70 (4). pp. 1135-1144. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0331.1

Hodson, D. L. R. and Sutton, R. T. (2012) The impact of resolution on the adjustment and decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a coupled climate model. Climate Dynamics, 39 (12). pp. 3057-3073. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1309-0

Mauritzen, C., Melsom, A. and Sutton, R. T. (2012) Importance of density-compensated temperature change for deep North Atlantic Ocean heat uptake. Nature Geoscience, 5 (12). pp. 905-910. ISSN 1752-0908 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1639

Srokosz, M., Baringer, M., Bryden, H., Cunningham, S., Delworth, T., Lozier, S., Marotzke, J. and Sutton, R. (2012) Past, present and future change in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93 (11). pp. 1663-1676. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00151.1

Robson, J.I., Sutton, R.T. and Smith, D.M. (2012) Initialized decadal predictions of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid 1990s. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (L19713). ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053370

Sutton, R. and Dong, B. (2012) Atlantic Ocean influence on a shift in European climate in the 1990s. Nature Geoscience, 5. pp. 788-792. ISSN 1752-0908 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1595

Chalmers, N., Highwood, E. J., Hawkins, E., Sutton, R. T. and Wilcox, L. J. (2012) Aerosol contribution to the rapid warming of near-term climate under RCP 2.6. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (18). L18709. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052848

Robson, J., Sutton, R., Lohmann, K., Smith, D. and Palmer, M. D. (2012) Causes of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic ocean in the mid-1990s. Journal of Climate, 25 (12). pp. 4116-4134. ISSN 0894-8755 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00443.1

Keeley, S., Sutton, R. and Shaffrey, L. (2012) The impact of North Atlantic sea surface temperature errors on the simulation of North Atlantic European region climate. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 138 (668). pp. 1774-1783. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1912

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. (2012) Time of emergence of climate signals. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (1). L01702. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050087

Iwi, A. M., Hermanson, L., Haines, K. and Sutton, R. T. (2012) Mechanisms linking volcanic aerosols to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Journal of Climate, 25 (8). pp. 3039-3051. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4067.1

Hawkins, E., Robson, J., Sutton, R., Smith, D. and Keenlyside, N. (2011) Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures with a perfect model approach. Climate Dynamics, 37 (11-12). pp. 2495-2509. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1023-3

Joshi, M., Hawkins, E., Sutton, R., Lowe, J. and Frame, D. (2011) Projections of when temperature change will exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Nature Climate Change, 1 (8). pp. 407-412. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1261

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. T. (2011) The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change. Climate Dynamics, 37 (1-2). pp. 407-418. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. (2011) Estimating climatically relevant singular vectors for decadal predictions of the Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Climate, 24 (1). pp. 109-123. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3579.1

Dong, B., Sutton, R. T. and Woollings, T. (2011) Changes of interannual NAO variability in response to greenhouse gases forcing. Climate Dynamics, 37 (7-8). pp. 1621-1641. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0936-6

Ortega, P., Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. (2011) Processes governing the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a coupled GCM. Climate Dynamics, 37 (9-10). pp. 1771-1782. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1025-1

Hodson, D. L. R., Sutton, R. T., Cassou, C., Keenlyside, N., Okumura, Y. and Zhou, T. (2010) Climate impacts of recent multidecadal changes in Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature: A multimodel comparison. Climate Dynamics, 34 (7-8). pp. 1041-1058. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0571-2

Hermanson, L. and Sutton, R. T. (2010) Case studies in interannual to decadal climate predictability. Climate Dynamics, 35 (7-8). pp. 1169-1189. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0672-y

Keeley, S. P. E., Sutton, R. T. and Shaffrey, L. C. (2009) Does the North Atlantic Oscillation show unusual persistence on intraseasonal timescales? Geophysical Research Letters, 36. L22706. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040367

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. T. (2009) The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90 (8). pp. 1095-1107. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1

Wilby, R.L., Troni, J., Biot, Y., Tedd, L., Hewitson, B.C., Smith, D.M. and Sutton, R. (2009) A review of climate risk information for adaptation and development planning. International Journal of Climatology, 29 (9). pp. 1193-1215. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1839

Hermanson, L. and Sutton, R. T. (2009) Climate predictability in the second year. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. Part A, 367 (1890). pp. 913-916. ISSN 1364-503X doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0181

Haines, K., Hermanson, K. L., Liu, C. L., Putt, D., Sutton, R. T., Iwi, A. and Smith, D. (2009) Decadal climate prediction (project GCEP). Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 367 (1890). pp. 925-937. ISSN 1364-503X doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0178

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. T. (2009) Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling. Journal of Climate, 22 (14). pp. 3960-3978. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2720.1

Dong, B., Gregory, J. M. and Sutton, R. T. (2009) Understanding land-sea warming contrast in response to increasing greenhouse gases. Part I: Transient adjustment. Journal of Climate, 22 (11). pp. 3079-3097. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2652.1

Stott, P.A., Sutton, R.T. and Smith, D.M. (2008) Detection and attribution of Atlantic salinity changes. Geophysical Research Letters, 35 (21). L21702. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035874

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. (2008) Potential predictability of rapid changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Geophysical Research Letters, 35 (11). L11603. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034059

Hodson, D.L.R. and Sutton, R.T. (2008) Exploring Multi-model atmospheric GCM Ensembles with ANOVA. Climate Dynamcs, 31 (7-8). pp. 973-986. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0372-z

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R. (2007) Variability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation described by three-dimensional empirical orthogonal functions. Climate Dynamics, 29 (7-8). pp. 745-762. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0263-8

Dong, B. and Sutton, R. (2007) Enhancement of ENSO variability by a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation in a coupled GCM. Journal of Climate, 20 (19). pp. 4290-4239. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4284.1

Timmermann, A., Okumura, Y., An, S. -I., Clement, A., Dong, B. -W., Guilyardi, E., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J., Krebs, U., Renold, M., Stocker, T. F., Stouffer, R. J., Sutton, R., Xie, S. -P. and Yin, J. (2007) The influence of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on ENSO. Journal of Climate, 20 (19). pp. 4899-4919. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4283.1

Spencer, H., Sutton, R. and Slingo, J.M. (2007) El Nino in a Coupled Climate Model: Sensitivity to changes in mean state induced by heat flux and wind stress corrections. Journal of Climate, 20 (10). pp. 2273-2298. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4111.1

Williams, P. D., Guilyardi, E., Sutton, R. T., Gregory, J. M. and Madec, G. (2007) A new feedback on climate change from the hydrological cycle. Geophysical Research Letters, 34 (8). L08706. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029275

Sutton, R., Dong, B. and Gregory, J. (2007) Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations. Geophysical Research Letters, 34. L02701. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028164

Sutton, R. and Hodson, D. (2007) Climate response to basin-scale warming and cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Climate, 20 (5). pp. 891-907. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4038.1

George, S. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0396-0299 and Sutton, R. T. (2007) Predictability and skill of boreal winter forecasts made with the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasting System II. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 132 (619). pp. 2031-2053. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.180

Williams, P. D., Guilyardi, E., Sutton, R. T., Gregory, J. M. and Madec, G. (2006) On the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean to changes in the global freshwater cycle. Climate Dynamics, 27 (6). pp. 593-611. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0151-7

Shaffrey, L. and Sutton, R. (2006) Bjerknes compensation and the decadal variability of the energy transports in a coupled climate model. Journal Of Climate, 19 (7). pp. 1167-1181. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3652.1

Hurrell, J. W., Visbeck, M., Busalacchi, A., Clarke, R. A., Delworth, T. L., Dickson, R. R., Johns, W. E., Koltermann, K. P., Kushnir, Y., Marshall, D., Mauritzen, C., McCartney, M. S., Piola, A., Reason, C., Reverdin, G., Schott, F., Sutton, R., Wainer, I. and Wright, D. (2006) Atlantic climate variability and predictability: A CLIVAR perspective. Journal Of Climate, 19 (20). pp. 5100-5121. ISSN 1520-0442

Sutton, R. (2006) CLIVAR Workshop on Atlantic Climate Predictability - Preface to the special issue of the Journal of Climate. Journal Of Climate, 19 (23). p. 5947. ISSN 1520-0442

Snaith, H. and Sutton, R. (2006) Coupled ocean-atmosphere processes and European climate (COAPEC): Improved understanding of the coupled climate system - Preface. Journal Of Climate, 19 (7). p. 1065. ISSN 1520-0442

Collins, M., Botzet, A., Carril, A. F., Drange, H., Jouzeau, A., Latif, M., Masina, S., Otteraa, O. H., Pohlmann, H., Sorteberg, A., Sutton, R. and Terray, L. (2006) Interannual to decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic: A multimodel-ensemble study. Journal Of Climate, 19 (7). pp. 1195-1203. ISSN 1520-0442

Dong, B. W., Sutton, R. T. and Scaife, A. A. (2006) Multidecadal modulation of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variance by Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters, 33 (8). doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025766

Copsey, D., Sutton, R. and Knight, J. R. (2006) Recent trends in sea level pressure in the Indian Ocean region. Geophysical Research Letters, 33 (19). ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027175

Black, E. and Sutton, R. T. (2006) The influence of oceanic conditions on the hot Europen summer of 2003. Climate Dynamics, 28. pp. 53-66.

Pezzulli, S., Frederic, P., Majithia, S., Sabbagh, S., Black, E., Sutton, R. and Stephenson, D. (2006) The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 22 (2). pp. 113-125. ISSN 1524-1904

Sutton, R. T. and Hodson, D. L. R. (2005) Atlantic Ocean forcing of North American and European summer climate. Science, 309 (5731). pp. 115-118.

Spencer, H., Sutton, R. T., Slingo, J. M., Roberts, M. and Black, E. (2005) Indian Ocean climate and dipole variability in Hadley Centre coupled GCMs. Journal Of Climate, 18 (13). pp. 2286-2307. ISSN 1520-0442

Sutton, R. (2005) Informing adaptation: New challenges for the climate modelling community. Weather, 60. p. 186.

Dong, B. W. and Sutton, R. T. (2005) Mechanism of interdecadal thermohaline circulation variability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. Journal Of Climate, 18 (8). pp. 1117-1135. ISSN 1520-0442

Sutton, R. T., Mathieu, P. P., Collins, M. and Dong, B. (2005) Response to comment by Geert van Oldenburgh on "Predictability of winter climate over the North Atlantic European region during ENSO events". Journal Of Climate, 18 (14). pp. 2773-2774. ISSN 1520-0442

Shaffrey, L. and Sutton, R. (2004) The interannual variability of energy transports within and over the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled climate model. Journal Of Climate, 17 (7). pp. 1433-1448. ISSN 1520-0442

Rodwell, M. J., Drevillon, M., Frankignoul, C., Hurrell, J. W., Pohlmann, H., Stendel, M. and Sutton, R. T. (2004) North Atlantic forcing of climate and its uncertainty from a multi-model experiment. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 130 (601). pp. 2013-2032. ISSN 1477-870X

Mathieu, P. P., Sutton, R. T., Dong, B. and Collins, M. (2004) Predictability of winter climate over the North Atlantic European region during ENSO events. Journal Of Climate, 17 (10). pp. 1953-1974. ISSN 1520-0442

Frankignoul, C., Kestenare, E., Botzet, M., Carril, A. F., Drange, H., Pardaens, A., Terray, L. and Sutton, R. (2004) An intercomparison between the surface heat flux feedback in five coupled models, COADS and the NCEP reanalysis. Climate Dynamics, 22 (4). pp. 373-388.

Sutton, R.T. and Hodson, D.L.R. (2003) Influence of the ocean on North Atlantic climate variability 1871-1999. Journal Of Climate, 16. pp. 3296-3313. ISSN 1520-0442

Dong, B.W. and Sutton, R.T. (2003) Variability of Atlantic Ocean heat transport and its effects on the atmosphere. Annales Geophysicae, 46. pp. 87-97.

Book or Report Section

Arnell, N., Qingchen, C., Ying, X., Junfeng, L., Tong, J., Guangsheng, Z., Kexiu, L., Brown, S., Challinor, A., Hawkins, E., Koehler, A.-K., Nicholls, R., Sutton, R., Rensheng, C., Xiaomin, L. and Wentao, W. (2018) Direct risks of climate change. In: UK-China Co-operation on Climate Change Risk Assessment: Developing Indicators of Climate Risk. Committee on Climate Change, London, pp. 58-97.

Kirtman, B., Power, S. B., Adedoyin, J. A., Boer, G. J., Camilloni, I., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Fiore, A. M., Kimoto, M., Meehl, G. A., Prather, M., Sarr, A., Schar, C., Sutton, R., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Vecchi, G. and Wang, H. J. (2014) Near-term climate change: projections and predictability. In: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M. M.B., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V. and Midgley, P. M. (eds.) Climate change 2013 : the physical science basis : contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN 9781107661820 doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.023

Dong, B., Dufresne, J.-L., Gualdi, S., Friedlingstein, P., Keenlyside, N., Maheras, P., Salas, D., Sutton, R. T. and Terray, L. (2009) Understanding the processes governing climate variability and change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events. In: Summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project. Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK, pp. 79-93.

Report

Wolf, E., Arnell, N., Friedlingstein, P., Gregory, J., Haigh, J., Haines, A., Hawkins, E., Hegerl, G., Hoskins, B., Mace, G., Prentice, I. C., Shine, K., Smith, P., Sutton, R. and Turley, C., (2017) Climate updates: what have we learnt since the IPCC 5th Assessment Report? Report. The Royal Society, London, UK. pp36. ISBN 9781782523062

Conference or Workshop Item

Sutton, R.T., Hodson, D.L.R. and Mathieu, P.P. (2003) The role of the Atlantic Ocean in climate forecasting. Proceedings of the ECMWF workshop on the role of the upper ocean in medium and extended range forecasting. In: ECMWF.