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Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Demory, M.-E., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Strachan, J., Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460, Mizielinski, M. S., Roberts, M. J., Matsueda, M., Wehner, M. F. and Jung, T. (2017) The resolution sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere blocking in four 25-km atmospheric global circulation models. Journal of Climate, 30 (1). pp. 337-358. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0100.1

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Wilcox, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 (2016) The 2015 European heat wave. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97. S57-S62. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0140.1

Bloomfield, H. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5616-1503, Brayshaw, D. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Coker, P. J. and Thornton, H. E. (2016) Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (12). 124025. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124025

Tous, M., Zappa, G., Romero, R., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 (2016) Projected changes in medicanes in the HadGEM3 N512 high-resolution global climate model. Climate Dynamics, 47 (5). pp. 1913-1924. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2941-2

Hawcroft, M. K., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X and Dacre, H. F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4328-9126 (2016) Can climate models represent the precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones? Climate Dynamics, 47 (3-4). pp. 679-695. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2863-z

Pinto, J. G., Ulbrich, S., Economou, T., Stephenson, D. B., Karremann, M. K. and Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2016) Robustness of serial clustering of extratropical cyclones to the choice of tracking method. Tellus A, 68. 32204. ISSN 1600-0870 doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v68.32204

Kennedy, D., Parker, T., Woollings, T., Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181 and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2016) The response of high-impact blocking weather systems to climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (13). pp. 7250-7258. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1002/2016GL069725

Petrie, R. E., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2015) Atmospheric impact of Arctic Sea ice loss in a coupled ocean–atmosphere simulation. Journal of Climate, 28 (24). pp. 9606-9622. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0316.1

Kuhlbrodt, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2328-6729, Gregory, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644 and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2015) A process-based analysis of ocean heat uptake in an AOGCM with an eddy-permitting ocean component. Climate Dynamics, 45 (11). pp. 3205-3226. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2534-0

Harvey, B. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Woollings, T. J. (2015) Deconstructing the climate change response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks. Climate Dynamics, 45 (9). pp. 2847-2860. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2510-8

Zappa, G., Hawcroft, M. K., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Brayshaw, D. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362 (2015) Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models. Climate Dynamics, 45 (7-8). pp. 1727-1738. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2426-8

Economou, T., Stephenson, D. B., Pinto, J. G., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Zappa, G. (2015) Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones in a multi-model ensemble of historical and future simulations. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (693). pp. 3076-3087. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2591

Petrie, R. E., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2015) Atmospheric response in summer linked to recent Arctic sea ice loss. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (691). pp. 2070-2076. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2502 (Part B)

Rhodes, R. I., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X (2015) Can reanalyses represent extreme precipitation over England and Wales? Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (689). pp. 1114-1120. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2418

Roberts, J. F., Champion, A. J., Dawkins, L. C., Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Stephenson, D. B., Stringer, M. A., Thornton, H. E. and Youngman, B. D. (2014) The XWS open access catalogue of extreme European windstorms from 1979 to 2012. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 14. pp. 2487-2501. ISSN 1561-8633 doi: 10.5194/nhess-14-2487-2014

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2014) The 2013 hot, dry summer in Western Europe. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95 (9). S61-S66. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: 10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1

Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Woollings, T. (2014) Equator-to-pole temperature differences and the extra-tropical storm track responses of the CMIP5 climate models. Climate Dynamics, 43 (5-6). pp. 1171-1182. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1883-9

Zappa, G., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2014) Can polar lows be objectively identified and tracked in the ECMWF operational analysis and the ERA-Interim reanalysis? Monthly Weather Review, 142 (8). pp. 2596-2608. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00064.1

Pearson, K. J., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 and Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2014) Can a climate model reproduce extreme regional precipitation events over England and Wales? Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (689). pp. 1466-1472. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2428

Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Demory, M.-E., Mizielinski, M. S., Roberts, M. J., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Strachan, J. and Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 (2014) The sensitivity of the tropical circulation and Maritime Continent precipitation to climate model resolution. Climate Dynamics, 42 (9-10). pp. 2455-2468. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1997-0

Zappa, G., Masato, G., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Woollings, T. and Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2014) Linking Northern Hemisphere blocking and storm track biases in the CMIP5 climate models. Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (1). pp. 135-139. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1002/2013GL058480

Ho, C. K., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Bröcker, J., Hermanson, L., Murphy, J. M., Smith, D. M. and Eade, R. (2013) Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: the role of ensemble dispersion. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (21). pp. 5770-5775. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1002/2013GL057630

Zappa, G., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Sansom, P. G. and Stephenson, D. B. (2013) A multimodel assessment of future projections of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models. Journal of Climate, 26 (16). pp. 5846-5862. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00573.1

Zappa, G., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2013) The ability of CMIP5 models to simulate North Atlantic extratropical cyclones. Journal of Climate, 26 (15). pp. 5379-5396. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00501.1

Ho, C. K., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Underwood, F. M. (2013) Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions. Climate Dynamics, 41 (3-4). pp. 917-935. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1531-9

Lloyd-Hughes, B., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 and Arnell, N. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2691-4436 (2013) An evaluation of the spatiotemporal structure of large-scale European drought within the HiGEM climate model. International Journal of Climatology, 33 (8). pp. 2024-2035. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: 10.1002/joc.3570

Sansom, P. G., Stephenson, D. B., Ferro, C. A. T., Zappa, G. and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2013) Simple uncertainty frameworks for selecting weighting schemes and interpreting multimodel ensemble climate change experiments. Journal of Climate, 26 (12). pp. 4017-4037. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00462.1

Marathayil, D., Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Levine, R. C. (2013) Systematic winter sea-surface temperature biases in the northern Arabian Sea in HiGEM and the CMIP3 models. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (1). 014028. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014028

Guo, L., Highwood, E., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2013) The effect of regional changes in anthropogenic aerosols on rainfall of the East Asian summer monsoon. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13. pp. 1521-1534. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: 10.5194/acp-13-1521-2013

Woollings, T., Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Zahn, M. and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2012) On the role of the ocean in projected atmospheric stability changes in the Atlantic polar low region. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (24). L24802. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2012GL054016

Hawcroft, M., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X and Dacre, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4328-9126 (2012) How much Northern Hemisphere precipitation is associated with extratropical cyclones? Geophysical Research Letters, 39. ISSN 0094-8276

Harvey, B. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Woollings, T. J., Zappa, G. and Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2012) How large are projected 21st century storm track changes? Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (18). L18707. ISSN 1944–8007 doi: 10.1029/2012GL052873

Keeley, S., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2012) The impact of North Atlantic sea surface temperature errors on the simulation of North Atlantic European region climate. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 138 (668). pp. 1774-1783. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.1912

Balan Sarojini, B., Gregory, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644, Tailleux, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8998-9107, Bigg, G.R., Blaker, A.T., Cameron, D., Edwards, N.R., Megann, A.P., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Sinha, B. (2011) High frequency variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Ocean Science Discussion, 8. pp. 219-246. ISSN 1812-0784 doi: 10.5194/osd-8-219-2011

Balan Sarojini, B., Gregory, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644, Tailleux, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8998-9107, Bigg, G.R., Blaker, A.T., Cameron, D.R., Edwards, N.R., Megann, A.P., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Sinha, B. (2011) High frequency variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Ocean Science, 7 (4). pp. 471-486. ISSN 1812-0784 doi: 10.5194/os-7-471-2011

Toniazzo, T., Abel, S. J., Wood, R., Mechoso, C. R., Allen, G. and Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2011) Large-scale and synoptic meteorology in the south-east Pacific during the observations campaign VOCALS-REx in austral Spring 2008. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11 (10). pp. 4977-5009. ISSN 1680-7324 doi: 10.5194/acp-11-4977-2011

Catto, J. L., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2011) Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones in a warming climate in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model. Journal of Climate, 24 (20). pp. 5336-5352. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI4181.1

Toniazzo, T., Mechoso, C. R., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Slingo, J. M. (2010) Upper-ocean heat budget and ocean eddy transport in the south-east Pacific in a high-resolution coupled model. Climate Dynamics, 35 (7-8). pp. 1309-1329. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-009-0703-8

Catto, J. L., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2010) Can climate models capture the structure of extratropical cyclones? Journal of Climate, 23 (7). pp. 1621-1635. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3318.1

Keeley, S. P. E., Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2009) Does the North Atlantic Oscillation show unusual persistence on intraseasonal timescales? Geophysical Research Letters, 36. L22706. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2009GL040367

Roberts, M. J., Clayton, A., Demory, M.-E., Donners, J., Vidale, P.L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460, Norton, W., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Stevens, D. P., Stevens, I., Wood, R. A. and Slingo, J. (2009) Impact of resolution on the tropical pacific circulation in a matrix of coupled models. Journal of Climate, 22 (10). pp. 2541-2556. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2537.1

Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Stevens, I., Norton, W., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460, Harle, J. D., Jrrar, A., Stevens, D. P., Woodage, M. J., Demory, M.-E., Donners, J., Clark, D. B., Clayton, A., Cole, J. W., Wilson, S. S., Connolley, W. M., Davies, T. M., Iwi, A. M., Johns, T. C., King, J. C., New, A. L., Slingo, J. M., Slingo, A., Steenman-Clark, L. and Martin, G. M. (2009) U.K. HiGEM: The New U.K. High-Resolution Global Environment Model—Model Description and Basic Evaluation. Journal of Climate, 22 (8). pp. 1861-1896. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2508.1

Challinor, A., Osborne, T. M., Morse, A., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Wheeler, T. R., Weller, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4553-7082 and Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 (2009) Methods and resources for climate impacts research: achieving synergy. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90 (6). pp. 836-848. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: 10.1175/2008BAMS2403.1

Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2006) Bjerknes compensation and the decadal variability of the energy transports in a coupled climate model. Journal Of Climate, 19 (7). pp. 1167-1181. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI3652.1

Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2004) The interannual variability of energy transports within and over the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled climate model. Journal Of Climate, 17 (7). pp. 1433-1448. ISSN 1520-0442

Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Hoskins, B. J. and Lu, R. (2002) The relationship between the North American summer monsoon, the Rocky Mountains and the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone in HadAM3. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 128 (586). pp. 2607-2622. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1256/qj.01.145

Book or Report Section

Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Dixon, R. (2017) Extra-tropical cyclones. In: Foote, M., Hillier, J., Mitchell-Wallace, K. and Jones, M. (eds.) Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Modelling: A Practitioners Guide. Wiley, Hoboken, USA, pp. 202-208, Chapter 3.3. ISBN 9781118906040 doi: 10.1002/9781118906057

De Tero, G., Toniazzo, T. and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2011) Ethiopian rainfall in climate models. In: Williams , C. J. R. and Kniveton , D. R. (eds.) African climate and climate change: physical, social and political perspective. Advances in Global Change Research (43). Springer, pp. 51-70. ISBN 9789048138418