Lohmann, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6323-6243, Dijkstra, H. A., Jochum, M., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Ditlevsen, P. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2120-7732 (2024) Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation. Science Advances, 10 (12). eadi4253. ISSN 2375-2548 doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adi4253

Maiocchi, C. C., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Gritsun, A. and Sato, Y. (2024) Heterogeneity of the attractor of the Lorenz '96 model: Lyapunov analysis, unstable periodic orbits, and shadowing properties. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 457. 133970. ISSN 1872-8022 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2023.133970

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Chekroun, M. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4525-5141 (2023) Theoretical tools for understanding the climate crisis from Hasselmann’s programme and beyond. Nature Reviews Physics, 5 (12). pp. 744-765. ISSN 2522-5820 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s42254-023-00650-8

Kobras, M., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Ambaum, M. H.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6824-8083 (2023) Latitudinal storm track shift in a reduced two-level model of the atmosphere. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 458. 133926. ISSN 1872-8022 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2023.133926

Rousseau, D.-D., Bagniewski, W. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2023) A punctuated equilibrium analysis of the climate evolution of cenozoic exhibits a hierarchy of abrupt transitions. Scientific Reports, 13. 11290. ISSN 2045-2322 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-38454-6

Recchia, L. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5907-9468 and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2023) Modelling the effect of aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing on the South and East Asian monsoons with an intermediate-complexity climate model. Earth System Dynamics, 14 (3). pp. 697-722. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-697-2023

Alberti, T., Daviaud, F., Donner, R. V., Dubrulle, B., Faranda, D. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2023) Chameleon attractors in turbulent flows. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 168. 113195. ISSN 1873-2887 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113195

Zagli, N., Pavliotis, G. A., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Alecio, A. (2023) Dimension reduction of noisy interacting systems. Physical Review Research, 5 (1). 013078. ISSN 2643-1564 doi: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevResearch.5.013078

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Galfi, V. M., Riboldi, J. and Messori, G. (2023) Typicality of the 2021 Western North America summer heatwave. Environmental Research Letters, 18 (1). 015004. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acab77

Cannarsa, P., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Martinez, P., Urbani, C. and Vancostenoble, J. (2023) Analysis of a two-layer energy balance model: long time behaviour and greenhouse effect. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 33 (11). 113111. ISSN 1089-7682 doi: https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0136673

Alberti, T., Faranda, D., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Donner, R. V., Dubrulle, B. and Daviaud, F. (2023) Scale dependence of fractal dimension in deterministic and stochastic Lorenz-63 systems. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 33 (2). 023144. ISSN 1089-7682 doi: https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0106053

Santos Gutiérrez, M. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2022) On some aspects of the response to stochastic and deterministic forcings. Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical, 55 (42). 425002. ISSN 1751-8113 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1751-8121/ac90fd

Margazoglou, G., Biferale, L., Cencini, M., Gallavotti, G. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2022) Nonequilibrium ensembles for the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations. Physical Review E, 105 (6). 065110. ISSN 2470-0053 doi: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.105.065110

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Serdukova, L. and Margazoglou, G. (2022) Lévy-noise versus Gaussian-noise-induced transitions in the Ghil-Sellers energy balance model. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 29. pp. 183-205. ISSN 1023-5809 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-183-2022

Ragon, C., Lembo, V., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Verard, C., Kasparian, J. and Brunetti, M. (2022) Robustness of competing climatic states. Journal of Climate, 35 (9). pp. 2769-2784. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0148.1

Maiocchi, C. C., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Gritsun, A. (2022) Decomposing the dynamics of the Lorenz 1963 model using unstable periodic orbits: averages, transitions, and quasi-invariant sets. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 32. 033129. ISSN 1089-7682 doi: https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0067673

Kobras, M., Ambaum, M. H. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6824-8083 and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2022) Eddy saturation in a reduced two-level model of the atmosphere. Geophysical & Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics, 116 (1). pp. 38-55. ISSN 0309-1929 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/03091929.2021.1990912

Lembo, V., Fabiano, F., Galfi, V. M., Graversen, R., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Messori, G. (2022) Meridional energy transport extremes and the general circulation of Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred zonal wavenumbers. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 3 (3). pp. 1037-1062. ISSN 2698-4016 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022

Chen, Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2319-6937, Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600 and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2021) Inferring the instability of a dynamical system from the skill of data assimilation exercises. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 28 (4). pp. 633-649. ISSN 1023-5809 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-633-2021

Gelbrecht, M., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Boers, N. and Kurths, J. (2021) Analysis of a bistable climate toy model with physics-based machine learning methods. The European Physical Journal Special Topics, 230. pp. 3121-3131. ISSN 1951-6355 doi: https://doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00175-0

Tomasini, U. M. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2021) Predictors and predictands of linear response in spatially extended systems. European Physical Journal Special Topics, 230. pp. 2813-2832. ISSN 1951-6355 doi: https://doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00158-1

Galfi, V. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8965-0880 and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2021) Fingerprinting heatwaves and cold spells and assessing their response to climate change using large deviation theory. Physical Review Letters, 127 (5). ISSN 0031-9007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.127.058701

Margazoglou, G., Grafke, T., Laio, A. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2021) Dynamical landscape and multistability of a climate model. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 477 (2250). ISSN 1364-5021 doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2021.0019

Zagli, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4509-1615, Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Pavliotis, G. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3468-9227 (2021) Spectroscopy of phase transitions for multiagent systems. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 31 (6). 061103. ISSN 1089-7682 doi: https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0053558

Galfi, V. M., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Ragone, F. and Wouters, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5418-7657 (2021) Applications of large deviation theory in geophysical fluid dynamics and climate science. Rivista del Nuovo Cimento, 44. pp. 291-363. ISSN 1826-9850 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40766-021-00020-z

Santos Gutiérrez, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8617-2804, Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Chekroun, M. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4525-5141 and Ghil, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5177-7133 (2021) Reduced-order models for coupled dynamical systems: data-driven methods and the Koopman operator. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 31 (5). 053116. ISSN 1089-7682 doi: https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0039496

Faranda, D., Alberti, T., Arutkin, M., Lembo, V. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2021) Interrupting vaccination policies can greatly spread SARS-CoV-2 and enhance mortality from COVID-19 disease: the AstraZeneca case for France and Italy. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 31 (4). 041105. ISSN 1089-7682 doi: https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0050887

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Pavliotis, G. A. and Zagli, N. (2020) Response theory and phase transitions for the thermodynamic limit of interacting identical systems. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. ISSN 1364-5021 doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2020.0688

Vissio, G., Lembo, V., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Ghil, M. (2020) Evaluating the performance of climate models based on Wasserstein distance. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (21). e2020GL089385. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089385

Vissio, G. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2020) Mechanics and thermodynamics of a new minimal model of the atmosphere. The European Physical Journal Plus, 135 (10). 807. ISSN 2190-5444 doi: https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00814-w

Ghil, M. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2020) The physics of climate variability and climate change. Reviews of Modern Physics, 92 (3). 035002. ISSN 0034-6861 doi: https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.92.035002

Eyring, V., Bock, L., Lauer, A., Righi, M., Schlund, M., Andela, B., Arnone, E., Bellprat, O., Brötz, B., Caron, L.-P., Carvalhais, N., Cionni, I., Cortesi, N., Crezee, B., Davin, E., Davini, P., Debeire, K., de Mora, L., Deser, C., Docquier, D., Earnshaw, P., Ehbrecht, C., Gier, B. K., Gonzalez-Reviriego, N., Goodman, P., Hagemann, S., Hardiman, S., Hassler, B., Hunter, A., Kadow, C., Kindermann, S., Koirala, S., Koldunov, N. V., Lejeune, Q., Lembo, V., Lovato, T., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Massonnet, F., Müller, B., Pandde, A., Pérez-Zanón, N., Phillips, A., Predoi, V., Russell, J., Sellar, A., Serva, F., Stacke, T., Swaminathan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5853-2673, Torralba, V., Vegas-Regidor, J., von Hardenberg, J., Weigel, K. and Zimmermann, K. (2020) Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 – an extended set of large-scale diagnostics for quasi-operational and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 13 (7). pp. 3383-3438. ISSN 1991-962X doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Bodai, T. (2020) Global stability properties of the climate: melancholia states, invariant measures, and phase transitions. Nonlinearity, 33 (9). R59-R92. ISSN 1361-6544 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6544/ab86cc

Bodai, T., Drótos, G., Herein, M., Lunkeit, F. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2020) The forced response of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation-Indian monsoon teleconnection in ensembles of Earth System Models. Journal of Climate, 33. pp. 2163-2182. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0341.1

Ruti, P., Tarasova, O., Keller, J., Carmichael, G., Hov, Ø., Jones, S., Terblanche, D., Anderson-Lefale, C., Barros, A., Bauer, P., Bouchet, V., Brasseur, G., Brunet, G., DeCola, P., Dike, V., Kane, M. D., Gan, C., Gurney, K., Hamburg, S., Hazeleger, W., Jean, M., Johnston, D., Lewis, A., Li, P., Liang, X., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Lynch, A., Manaenkova, E., Jae-Cheol, N., Ohtake, S., Pinardi, N., Polcher, J., Ritchie, E., Sakya, A. E., Saulo, C., Singhee, A., Sopaheluwakan, A., Steiner, A., Thorpe, A. and Yamaji, M. (2020) Advancing research for seamless Earth system prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101 (1). E23-E35. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-17-0302.1

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Gritsun, A. (2020) A new mathematical framework for atmospheric blocking events. Climate Dynamics, 54 (1-2). pp. 575-598. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05018-2

Lembo, V., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Ragone, F. (2020) Beyond forcing scenarios: predicting climate change through response operators in a coupled general circulation model. Scientific Reports, 10 (1). 8668. ISSN 2045-2322 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2

Bódai, T., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Lunkeit, F. (2020) Can we use linear response theory to assess geoengineering strategies? Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 30 (2). 023124. ISSN 1089-7682 doi: https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5122255

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2020) Introduction to the special issue on the statistical mechanics of climate. Journal of Statistical Physics, 179 (5-6). Springer. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-020-02605-0

Santos Gutierrez, M. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2020) Response and sensitivity using markov chains. Journal of Statistical Physics, 179 (5-6). pp. 1572-1593. ISSN 0022-4715 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-020-02504-4

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2019) Stochastic resonance for nonequilibrium systems. Physical Review E, 100 (6). 062124. ISSN 2470-0045 doi: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.100.062124

Hu, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4305-3658, Bodai, T. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2019) Effects of stochastic parametrization on extreme value statistics. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 29 (8). 083102. ISSN 1089-7682 doi: https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5095756

Lembo, V., Messori, G., Graversen, R. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2019) Spectral decomposition and extremes of atmospheric meridional energy transport in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Geophysical Research Letters. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082105

Carlu, M., Ginelli, F., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Politi, A. (2019) Lyapunov analysis of multiscale dynamics: the slow bundle of the two-scale Lorenz 96 model. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 26 (2). pp. 73-89. doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-73-2019

Gómez-Leal, I., Kaltenegger, L., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Lunkeit, F. (2019) Climate sensitivity to ozone and its relevance on the habitability of Earth-like planets. Icarus, 321. pp. 608-618. ISSN 0019-1035 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2018.11.019

Lembo, V., Lunkeit, F. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2019) TheDiaTo (v1.0) – a new diagnostic tool for water, energy and entropy budgets in climate models. Geoscientific Model Development, 12 (8). pp. 3805-3834. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3805-2019

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Bódai, T. (2019) Transitions across Melancholia States in a climate model: reconciling the deterministic and stochastic points of view. Physical Review Letters, 122 (15). 158701. ISSN 1079-7114 doi: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.122.158701

Boschi, R. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2019) Water pathways for the Hindu-Kush-Himalaya and analysis of three flood events. Atmosphere, 10 (9). 489. ISSN 2073-4433 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10090489

Galfi, V. M., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Wouters, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5418-7657 (2019) A large deviation theory-based analysis of heat waves and cold spells in a simplified model of the general circulation of the atmosphere. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment. 033404. ISSN 1742-5468 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468/ab02e8

Gomez-Leal, I., Kaltenegger, L., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Lunkeit, F. (2018) Climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide and moist greenhouse threshold of earth-like planets under an increasing solar forcing. The Astrophysical Journal, 869 (2). 129. ISSN 0004-637X doi: https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/aaea5f

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2018) Revising and extending the linear response theory for statistical mechanical systems: evaluating observables as predictors and predictands. Journal of Statistical Physics, 173 (6). pp. 1698-1721. ISSN 0022-4715 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-018-2151-5

Biferale, L., Cencini, M., De Pietro, M., Gallavotti, G. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2018) Equivalence of nonequilibrium ensembles in turbulence models. Physical Review E, 98 (1). 012202. ISSN 2470-0053 doi: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.98.012202

Tantet, A., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Lunkeit, F. and Dijkstra, H. A. (2018) Crisis of the chaotic attractor of a climate model: a transfer operator approach. Nonlinearity, 31 (5). 2221. ISSN 1361-6544 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6544/aaaf42

Tantet, A., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Dijkstra, H. A. (2018) Resonances in a chaotic attractor crisis of the Lorenz Flow. Journal of Statistical Physics, 170 (3). pp. 584-616. ISSN 0022-4715 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-017-1938-0

Vissio, G. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2018) A proof of concept for scale-adaptive parameterizations: the case of the Lorenz ’96 model. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (710). pp. 63-75. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3184

Vissio, G. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2018) Evaluating a stochastic parametrization for a fast--slow system using the Wasserstein distance. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 25 (2). pp. 413-427. ISSN 1023-5809 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-413-2018

De Cruz, L., Schubert, S., Demaeyer, J., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Vannitsem, S. (2018) Exploring the Lyapunov instability properties of high-dimensional atmospheric and climate models. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 25 (2). pp. 387-412. ISSN 1607-7946 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-387-2018

Zahid, M., Blender, R., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Bramati, M. C. (2017) Return levels of temperature extremes in southern Pakistan. Earth System Dynamics, 8 (4). pp. 1263-1278. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1263-2017

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Wouters, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5418-7657 (2017) Response formulae for n-point correlations in statistical mechanical systems and application to a problem of coarse graining. Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical, 50 (35). 355003. ISSN 1751-8113 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1751-8121/aa812c

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Bodai, T. (2017) Edge states in the climate system: exploring global instabilities and critical transitions. Nonlinearity, 30 (7). R32-R66. ISSN 1361-6544 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6544/aa6b11

Gritsun, A. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2017) Fluctuations, response, and resonances in a simple atmospheric model. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 349. pp. 62-76. ISSN 0167-2789 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2017.02.015

Hasson, S., Böhner, J. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2017) Prevailing climatic trends and runoff response from Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya, upper Indus Basin. Earth System Dynamics, 8 (2). pp. 337-355. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-337-2017

Berner, J., Achatz, U., Batte, L., Bengtsson, L., De La Camara, A., Christensen, H. M., Colangeli, M., Coleman, D. R. B., Crommelin, D., Dolaptchiev, S. I., Franzke, C. L. E., Friederichs, P., Imkeller, P., Jarvinen, H., Juricke, S., Kitsios, V., Lott, F., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Mahajan, S., Palmer, T. N., Penland, C., Sakradzija, M., Von Storch, J.-S., Weisheimer, A., Weniger, M., Williams, P. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9713-9820 and Yano, J.-I. (2017) Stochastic parameterization: towards a new view of weather and climate models. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98 (3). pp. 565-588. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00268.1

Baladi, V., Kuna, T. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2017) Linear and fractional response for the SRB measure of smooth hyperbolic attractors and discontinuous observables. Nonlinearity, 30 (3). 1204. ISSN 1361-6544 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6544/aa5b13

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Ragone, F. and Lunkeit, F. (2017) Predicting climate change using response theory: global averages and spatial patterns. Journal of Statistical Physics, 166 (3-4). pp. 1036-1064. ISSN 0022-4715 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-016-1506-z

Galfi, V. M., Bodai, T. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2017) Convergence of extreme value statistics in a two-layer quasi-geostrophic atmospheric model. Complexity, 2017. 5340858. ISSN 1076-2787 doi: https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/5340858

von der Heydt, A. S., Dijkstra, H. A., van de Wal, R. S. W., Caballero, R., Crucifix, M., Foster, G. L., Huber, M., Köhler, P., Rohling, E., Valdes, P. J., Ashwin, P., Bathiany, S., Berends, T., van Bree, L. G. J., Ditlevsen, P., Ghil, M., Haywood, A. M., Katzav, J., Lohmann, G., Lohmann, J., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Marzocchi, A., Pälike, H., Baroni, I. R., Simon, D., Sluijs, A., Stap, L. B., Tantet, A., Viebahn, J. and Ziegler, M. (2016) Lessons on climate sensitivity from past climate changes. Current Climate Change Reports, 2 (4). pp. 148-158. ISSN 2198-6061 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0049-3

Wouters, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5418-7657, Dolaptchiev, S. I., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Achatz, U. (2016) Parameterization of stochastic multiscale triads. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 23 (6). pp. 435-445. ISSN 1023-5809 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-435-2016

ul Hasson, S., Pascale, S., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Boehner, J. (2016) Seasonal cycle of precipitation over major river basins in South and Southeast Asia: a review of the CMIP5 climate models data for present climate and future climate projections. Atmospheric Research, 180. 42 - 63. ISSN 0169-8059 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.05.008

Schubert, S. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2016) Dynamical analysis of blocking events: spatial and temporal fluctuations of covariant Lyapunov vectors. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (698). pp. 2143-2158. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2808

Vannitsem, S. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2016) Statistical and dynamical properties of covariant lyapunov vectors in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model—multiscale effects, geometric degeneracy, and error dynamics. Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical, 49 (22). 224001. ISSN 1751-8113 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1751-8113/49/22/224001

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Faranda, D., Freitas, A. C. G. M. M., Freitas, J. M. M. d., Holland, M., Kuna, T., Nicol, M., Todd, M. and Vaienti, S., eds. (2016) Extremes and recurrence in dynamical systems. Pure and applied mathematics: a Wiley series of texts, monographs, and tracts. Wiley, Chichester, pp312. ISBN 9781118632192 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118632321

Ragone, F., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Lunkeit, F. (2016) A new framework for climate sensitivity and prediction: a modelling perspective. Climate Dynamics, 46 (5). pp. 1459-1471. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2657-3

Pascale, S., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Feng, X., Porporato, A. and ul Hasson, S. (2016) Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Climate Dynamics, 46 (3). pp. 1331-1350. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2648-4

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2016) Response operators for Markov processes in a finite state space: radius of convergence and link to the response theory for Axiom A systems. Journal of Statistical Physics, 162 (2). pp. 312-333. ISSN 0022-4715 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-015-1409-4

Schubert, S. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2015) Covariant Lyapunov vectors of a quasi-geostrophic baroclinic model: analysis of instabilities and feedbacks. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (693). pp. 3040-3055. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2588

Pascale, S., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Feng, X., Porporato, A. and Hasson, S. u. (2015) Analysis of rainfall seasonality from observations and climate models. Climate Dynamics, 44 (11). pp. 3281-3301. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2278-2

Linsenmeier, M., Pascale, S. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2015) Climate of Earth-like planets with high obliquity and eccentric orbits: implications for habitability conditions. Planetary and Space Science, 105. 43 - 59. ISSN 0032-0633 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pss.2014.11.003

Franzke, C. L. E., O'Kane, T. J., Berner, J., Williams, P. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9713-9820 and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2015) Stochastic climate theory and modeling. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 6 (1). pp. 63-78. ISSN 1757-7799 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.318

Knietzsch, M.-A., Schröder, A., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Lunkeit, F. (2015) The impact of oceanic heat transport on the atmospheric circulation. Earth System Dynamics, 6 (2). pp. 591-615. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-591-2015

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Blender, R., Herbert, C., Ragone, F., Pascale, S. and Wouters, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5418-7657 (2014) Mathematical and physical ideas for climate science. Reviews of Geophysics, 52 (4). pp. 809-859. ISSN 8755-1209 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2013RG000446

Hasson, S., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Khan, M. R., Petitta, M., Bolch, T. and Gioli, G. (2014) Early 21st century snow cover state over the western river basins of the Indus River system. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18 (10). pp. 4077-4100. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4077-2014

Gallavotti, G. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2014) Equivalence of non-equilibrium ensembles and representation of friction in turbulent flows: the Lorenz 96 model. Journal of Statistical Physics, 156 (6). pp. 1027-1065. ISSN 0022-4715 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-014-1051-6

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Pascale, S. (2014) Entropy production and coarse graining of the climate fields in a general circulation model. Climate Dynamics, 43 (3-4). pp. 981-1000. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2052-5

Faranda, D., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Manneville, P. and Wouters, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5418-7657 (2014) On using extreme values to detect global stability thresholds in multi-stable systems: the case of transitional plane Couette flow. Chaos Solitons & Fractals, 64. 26 - 35. ISSN 0960-0779 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2014.01.008

Bodai, T., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Lunkeit, F. and Boschi, R. (2014) Global instability in the Ghil--Sellers model. Climate Dynamics, 44 (11-12). pp. 3361-3381. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2206-5

Hasson, S., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Pascale, S. and Böhner, J. (2014) Seasonality of the hydrological cycle in major South and Southeast Asian river basins as simulated by PCMDI/CMIP3 experiments. Earth System Dynamics, 5 (1). pp. 67-87. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-67-2014

Colangeli, M. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2014) Elements of a unified framework for response formulae. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment, 2014 (1). P01002. ISSN 1742-5468 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468/2014/01/P01002

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Faranda, D., Wouters, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5418-7657 and Kuna, T. (2014) Towards a general theory of extremes for observables of chaotic dynamical systems. Journal of Statistical Physics, 154 (3). pp. 723-750. ISSN 0022-4715 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-013-0914-6

Boschi, R., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Pascale, S. (2013) Bistability of the climate around the habitable zone: a thermodynamic investigation. Icarus, 226 (2). pp. 1724-1742. ISSN 0019-1035 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2013.03.017

Faranda, D., Freitas, J. M., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Turchetti, G. and Vaienti, S. (2013) Extreme value statistics for dynamical systems with noise. Nonlinearity, 26 (9). pp. 2597-2622. ISSN 1361-6544 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/0951-7715/26/9/2597

Pascale, S., Ragone, F., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Wang, Y. and Boschi, R. (2013) Nonequilibrium thermodynamics of circulation regimes in optically thin, dry atmospheres. Planetary and Space Science, 84. 48 - 65. ISSN 0032-0633 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pss.2013.04.014

Blender, R., Wouters, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5418-7657 and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2013) Avalanches, breathers, and flow reversal in a continuous Lorenz-96 model. Physical Review E, 88 (1). 013201. ISSN 1550-2376 doi: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.88.013201

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Pascale, S., Boschi, R., Kirk, E. and Iro, N. (2013) Habitability and multistablility in earth-like plantets. Astronomische Nachrichten, 334 (6). pp. 576-588. ISSN 1521-3994 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/asna.201311903

Wouters, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5418-7657 and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2013) Multi-level dynamical systems: connecting the Ruelle response theory and the Mori-Zwanzig approach. Journal of Statistical Physics, 151 (5). pp. 850-860. ISSN 0022-4715 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-013-0726-8

Blender, R. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2013) Nambu representation of an extended Lorenz model with viscous heating. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 243 (1). 86 - 91. ISSN 0167-2789

Hasson, S., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Pascale, S. (2013) Hydrological cycle over South and Southeast Asian river basins as simulated by PCMDI/CMIP3 experiments. Earth System Dynamics, 4 (2). pp. 199-217. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-199-2013

Faranda, D., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Turchetti, G. and Vaienti, S. (2012) Generalized extreme value distribution parameters as dynamical indicators of stability. International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, 22 (11). 1250276. ISSN 1793-6551 doi: https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218127412502768

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Colangeli, M. (2012) Beyond the linear fluctuation-dissipation theorem: the role of causality. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment, 2012 (05). P05013. ISSN 1742-5468

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Kuna, T., Wouters, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5418-7657 and Faranda, D. (2012) Relevance of sampling schemes in light of Ruelle's linear response theory. Nonlinearity, 25 (5). p. 1311. ISSN 1361-6544 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/0951-7715/25/5/1311

Wouters, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5418-7657 and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2012) Disentangling multi-level systems: averaging, correlations and memory. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment, 2012 (3). P03003. ISSN 1742-5468 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468/2012/03/P03003

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Faranda, D. and Willeit, M. (2012) Bistable systems with stochastic noise: virtues and limits of effective one-dimensional Langevin equations. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19 (1). pp. 9-22. ISSN 1607-7946 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-19-9-2012

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Faranda, D., Turchetti, G. and Vaienti, S. (2012) Extreme value distribution for singular measures. Chaos, 22 (2). 023135. ISSN 1089-7682 doi: https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4718935

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2012) Stochastic perturbations to dynamical systems: a response theory approach. Journal of Statistical Physics, 146 (4). pp. 774-786. ISSN 1572-9613 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-012-0422-0,

Pascale, S., Gregory, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644, Ambaum, M. H. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6824-8083, Tailleux, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8998-9107 and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2012) Vertical and horizontal processes in the global atmosphere and the maximum entropy production conjecture. Earth System Dynamics, 3. pp. 19-32. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-19-2012

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Fraedrich, K. and Ragone, F. (2011) New results on the thermodynamical properties of the climate system. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 68 (10). pp. 2438-2458. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JAS3713.1

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Ragone, F. (2011) Energetics of climate models: net energy balance and meridional enthalpy transport. Reviews of Geophysics, 49 (RG1001). ISSN 8755-1209 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2009RG000323

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Sarno, S. (2011) A statistical mechanical approach for the computation of the climatic response to general forcings. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18 (1). pp. 7-28. ISSN 1023-5809 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-18-7-2011

Zappa, G., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Navarra, A. (2011) Baroclinic stationary waves in aquaplanet models. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 68 (5). pp. 1023-1040. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JAS3573.1

Faranda, D., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Turchetti, G. and Vaienti, S. (2011) Numerical convergence of the Block-Maxima approach to the generalized extreme value distribution. Journal of Statistical Physics, 145 (5). pp. 1156-1180. ISSN 0022-4715 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-011-0234-7

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Fraedrich, K. and Lunkeit, F. (2010) Thermodynamics of climate change: generalized sensitivities. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10 (20). pp. 9729-9737. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-9729-2010

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Fraedrich, K. and Lunkeiot, F. (2010) Thermodynamic analysis of snowball Earth hysteresis experiment: Efficiency, entropy production and irreversibility. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 136 (646). pp. 2-11. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.543

Baum, A., Scully, P. J., Perrie, W., Liu, D. and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2010) Mechanisms of femtosecond laser-induced refractive index modification of poly(methyl methacrylate). Journal of the Optical Society of America B-Optical Physics, 27 (1). pp. 107-111. ISSN 0030-3941 doi: https://doi.org/10.1364/JOSAB.27.000107

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2009) Symmetry-break in Voronoi tessellations. Symmetry, 1 (1). pp. 21-54. ISSN 2073-8994 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/sym1010021

Vitolo, R., Ruti, P. M., Dell'Aquila, A., Felici, M., Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Speranza, A. (2009) Accessing extremes of mid-latitudinal wave activity: methodology and application. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 61 (1). pp. 35-49. ISSN 0280-6495

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2009) Evidence of dispersion relations for the nonlinear response of the Lorenz 63 system. Journal of Statistical Physics, 134 (2). pp. 381-400. ISSN 0022-4715 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-008-9675-z

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 and Fraedrich, K. (2009) Symmetry breaking, mixing, instability, and low frequency variability in a minimal Lorenz-like system. Physical Review E, 80 (2). 026313. ISSN 1539-3755 doi: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.80.026313

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2009) Thermodynamic efficiency and entropy production in the climate system. Physical Review E, 80 (2). 021118-021118. ISSN 1539-3755 doi: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.80.021118

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2009) Three-dimensional random Voronoi tessellations: From cubic crystal lattices to Poisson point processes. Journal of Statistical Physics, 134 (1). pp. 185-206. ISSN 0022-4715 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-008-9668-y

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2008) From symmetry breaking to Poisson Point Process in 2D Voronoi Tessellations: the generic nature of hexagons. Journal of Statistical Physics, 130. pp. 1047-1062. ISSN 0022-4715

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Danihlik, R., Kriegerova, I. and Speranza, A. (2008) Hydrological cycle in the Danube basin in present-day and XXII century simulations by IPCCAR4 global climate models. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113. D09107-D09107. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009167

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2008) Response theory for equilibrium and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics: causality and generalized Kramers-Kronig relations. Journal of Statistical Physics, 131 (3). pp. 543-558. ISSN 0022-4715 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-008-9498-y

Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471, Saarinen, J. J., Peiponen, K.-E. and Vartiainen, E. M. (2005) Kramers-Kronig relations in optical materials research. Springer Series in Optical Sciences, 110. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, pp162. ISBN 9783540273165