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Ommer, J., Neumann, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3244-2578, Kalas, M., Blackburn, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1959-5465 and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2024) Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 24 (8). pp. 2633-2646. ISSN 1684-9981 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024

Pillosu, F. M., Bucherie, A., Kruczkiewicz, A., Haiden, T., Baugh, C., Hultquist, C., Vergara, H., Pappenberger, F., Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Prudhomme, C. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, (2024) Can global rainfall forecasts identify areas at flash flood risk? Proof of concept for Ecuador. Technical Report. ECMWF doi: https://doi.org/10.21957/8e2dd559f0

Ommer, J., Neumann, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3244-2578, Vranić, S., Kalas, M., Leo, L. S., Di Sabatino, S. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2024) The impact of spatial resolutions on nature-based solution suitability mapping for Europe. Applied Sciences, 14 (11). 4608. ISSN 2076-3417 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/app14114608

Gebrechorkos, S. H., Leyland, J., Dadson, S. J., Cohen, S., Slater, L., Wortmann, M., Ashworth, P. J., Bennett, G. L., Boothroyd, R., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Delorme, P., Griffith, H., Hardy, R., Hawker, L., McLelland, S., Neal, J., Nicholas, A., Tatem, A. J., Vahidi, E., Liu, Y., Sheffield, J., Parsons, D. R. and Darby, S. E. (2024) Global scale evaluation of precipitation datasets for hydrological modelling. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-251 (In Press)

Krupska, K. U., Speight, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8700-157X, Robinson, J. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1045-4412, Gilbert, A. J. and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2024) Forecasting bathing water quality in the UK: a critical review. WIREs Water. ISSN 2049-1948 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1718

Lewis, C., Smyth, T., Neumann, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3244-2578 and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2024) Proposal for a new meteotsunami intensity index. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 24 (1). pp. 121-131. ISSN 1684-9981 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024

Richardson, D. S., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Methven, J. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 and Pappenberger, F. (2024) Jumpiness in ensemble forecasts of Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Weather and Forecasting, 39 (1). pp. 203-215. ISSN 1520-0434 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-23-0113.1

Ommer, J., Blackburn, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1959-5465, Kalas, M., Neumann, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3244-2578 and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2024) Risk social contracts: exploring responsibilities through the lens of citizens affected by flooding in Germany in 2021. Progress in Disaster Science, 21. 100315. ISSN 2590-0617 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100315

Shyrokaya, A., Messori, G., Pechlivanidis, I., Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Di Baldassarre, G. (2024) Significant relationships between drought indicators and impacts for the 2018–2019 drought in Germany. Environmental Research Letters, 19 (1). 014037. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d9

Titley, H. A., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Stephens, E. M., Pappenberger, F. and Zsoter, E. (2024) Using ensembles to analyse predictability links in the tropical cyclone flood forecast chain. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 25 (1). pp. 191-206. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-23-0022.1

Hossain, S., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Ficchi, A., Gupta, H., Speight, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8700-157X, Hassan, A. and Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 (2023) A decision-led evaluation approach for flood forecasting system developments: an application to the Global Flood Awareness System in Bangladesh. Journal of Flood Risk Management. e12959. ISSN 1753-318X doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12959

Speight, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8700-157X, Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Hawker, L., Baugh, C., Neal, J., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Grey, S., Titley, H., Marsden, K., Sumner, T., Ficchi, A., Prudhomme, C., Archer, L., Bazo, J., Dambo, J., Dolan, S., Huhn, A. L., Moschini, F., Savage, J., Smith, A., Towner, J. and Wanzala, M. (2023) Recommendations to improve the interpretation of global flood forecasts to support international humanitarian operations for tropical cyclones. Journal of Flood Risk Management. e12952. ISSN 1753-318X doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12952

Gebrechorkos, S., Leyland, J., Slater, L., Wortmann, M., Ashworth, P. J., Bennett, G. L., Boothroyd, R., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Delorme, P., Griffith, H., Hardy, R., Hawker, L., McLelland, S., Neal, J., Nicholas, A., Tatem, A. J., Vahidi, E., Parsons, D. R. and Darby, S. E. (2023) A high-resolution daily global dataset of statistically downscaled CMIP6 models for climate impact analyses. Scientific Data, 10. 611. ISSN 2052-4463 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02528-x

Badjana, H. M., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Verhoef, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9498-6696, Julich, S., Camargos, C., Collins, S., Macdonald, D. M. J., McGuire, P. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6592-4966 and Clark, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0412-8824 (2023) Can hydrological models assess the impact of natural flood management in groundwater-dominated catchments? Journal of Flood Risk Management, 16 (3). e12912. ISSN 1753-318X doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12912

Mehring, P., Geoghegan, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1401-8626, Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Clark, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0412-8824 (2023) The F word: the experiential construction of flooding in England. Emotion, Space and Society, 48. 100966. ISSN 1755-4586 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.emospa.2023.100966

Savelli, E., Mazzoleni, M., Di Baldassarre, G., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Rusca, M. (2023) Urban water crises driven by elites’ unsustainable consumption. Nature Sustainability, 6 (8). pp. 929-940. ISSN 2398-9629 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01100-0

Lewis, C., Smyth, T., Williams, D., Neumann, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3244-2578 and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2023) Meteotsunami in the United Kingdom: the hidden hazard. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 23 (7). pp. 2531-2546. ISSN 1684-9981 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2531-2023

Jafarzadegan, K., Moradkhani, H., Pappenberger, F., Moftakhari, H., Bates, P., Abbaszadeh, P., Marsooli, R., Ferreira, C., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Ogden, F. and Duan, Q. (2023) Recent advances and new frontiers in riverine and coastal flood modeling. Reviews of Geophysics, 61 (2). e2022RG000788. ISSN 8755-1209 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022RG000788

Matthews, G., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Hansford, E., Mazzetti, C. and Prudhomme, C. (2023) Co-design and co-production of flood forecast products: summary of a hybrid workshop. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 104 (5). E1058-E1066. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0061.1

Brimicombe, C., Lo, C. H. B., Pappenberger, F., Di Napoli, C., Maciel, P., Quintino, T., Cornforth, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556 and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2023) Wet Bulb Globe Temperature: indicating extreme heat risk on a global grid. GeoHealth, 7 (2). e2022GH000701. ISSN 2471-1403 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GH000701

Mason, D. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338 and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2023) Towards improved urban flood detection using Sentinel-1: dependence of the ratio of post- to pre-flood double scattering cross-sections on building orientation. Journal of Applied Remote Sensing, 17 (1). 016507. ISSN 1931-3195 doi: https://doi.org/10.1117/1.JRS.17.016507

Harrigan, S., Zsoter, E., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Salamon, P. and Prudhomme, C. (2023) Daily ensemble river discharge reforecasts and real-time forecasts from the operational Global Flood Awareness System. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 27 (1). pp. 1-19. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023

Mazzoleni, M., Dottori, F., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Di Baldassarre, G. (2022) Deciphering human influence on annual maximum flood extent at the global level. Communications Earth & Environment, 3 (1). 262. ISSN 2662-4435 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00598-0

Lamb, R., Longfield, S., Manson, S., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pilling, C., Reynard, N., Sheppard, O., Asadullah, A., Vaughan, M., Fowler, H. J. and Beven, K. J. (2022) The future of flood hydrology in the UK. Hydrology Research, 53 (10). pp. 1286-1303. ISSN 0029-1277 doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2022.053

Savelli, E., Rusca, M., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Flügel, T. J., Karriem, A. and Di Baldassarre, G. (2022) All dried up: the materiality of drought in Ladismith, South Africa. Environment and Planning E: Nature and Space. ISSN 2514-8494 doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/25148486221126617

Wanzala, M. A., Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Ficchi, A. (2022) Hydrological model preselection with a filter sequence for the national flood forecasting system in Kenya. Journal of Flood Risk Management. ISSN 1753-318X doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12846

Emerton, R., Brimicombe, C., Magnusson, L., Roberts, C., Di Napoli, C., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. (2022) Predicting the unprecedented: forecasting the June 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave. Weather, 77 (8). pp. 272-279. ISSN 0043-1656 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.4257

Matthews, G., Barnard, C., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Jurlina, T., Mazzetti, C. and Prudhomme, C. (2022) Evaluating the impact of post-processing medium-range ensemble streamflow forecasts from the European Flood Awareness System. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 26 (11). pp. 2939-2968. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2939-2022

Ommer, J., Bucchignani, E., Leo, L. S., Kalas, M., Vranić, S., Debele, S., Kumar, P., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Di Sabatino, S. (2022) Quantifying co-benefits and disbenefits of Nature-based Solutions targeting Disaster Risk Reduction. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 75. 102966. ISSN 2212-4209 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102966

Wanzala, M. A., Ficchi, A., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Badjana, H. M. and Lavers, D. A. (2022) Assessment of global reanalysis precipitation for hydrological modelling in data–scarce regions: a case study of Kenya. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 41. 101105. ISSN 2214-5818 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101105

Brimicombe, C., Di Napoli, C., Quintino, T., Pappenberger, F., Cornforth, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556 and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2022) Thermofeel: a python thermal comfort indices library. SoftwareX, 18. 101005. ISSN 2352-7110 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.softx.2022.101005

Zsoter, E., Arduini, G., Prudhomme, C., Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2022) Hydrological impact of the new ECMWF multi-Layer snow scheme. Atmosphere, 13 (5). 727. ISSN 2073-4433 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13050727

Koriche, S. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1285-2035, Singarayer, J. S., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Valdes, P. J., Wesselingh, F. P., Kroonenberg, S. B., Wickert, A. D. and Yanina, T. A. (2022) What are the drivers of Caspian Sea level variation during the late Quaternary? Quaternary Science Reviews, 283. 107457. ISSN 0277-3791 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107457

Savelli, E., Rusca, M., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Di Baldassarre, G. (2022) Drought and society: scientific progress, blind spots, and future prospects. WIREs Climate Change, 13 (3). e761. ISSN 1757-7799 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.761

Brimicombe, C., Quintino, T., Smart, S., Di Napoli, C., Hogan, R., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F., (2022) Calculating the cosine of the solar zenith angle for thermal comfort indices. ECMWF Technical Memoranda. 895. Technical Report. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts doi: https://doi.org/10.21957/o7pcu1x2b

Mehring, P., Geoghegan, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1401-8626, Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Clark, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0412-8824 (2022) Going home for tea and medals: how members of the flood risk management authorities in England construct flooding and flood risk management. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 15 (1). ISSN 1753-318X doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12768

Dasgupta, A., Arnal, L., Emerton, R., Harrigan, S., Matthews, G., Muhammad, A., O'Regan, K., Pérez-Ciria, T., Valdez, E., van Osnabrugge, B., Werner, M., Buontempo, C., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pappenberger, F., Pechlivanidis, l. G., Prudhomme, C., Ramos, M.-H. and Salamon, P. (2022) Connecting hydrological modelling and forecasting from global to local scales: perspectives from an international joint virtual workshop. Journal of Flood Risk Management. e12880. ISSN 1753-318X doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12880

Koriche, S. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1285-2035, Nandini-Weiss, S. D., Prange, M., Singarayer, J. S., Arpe, K., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Schulz, M., Bakker, P., Leroy, S. A. G. and Coe, M. (2021) Impacts of variations in Caspian Sea surface area on catchment-scale and large-scale climate. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126 (18). e2020JD034251. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034251

Brimicombe, C., Di Napoli, C., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Wanzala, M. (2021) Reviewing the summer of extreme weather in 2021. CarbonBrief.

Kalas, M., Dottori, F., Salamon, P., Wania, A., Lorini, V., Pappenberger, F., Ramos, M. H. and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2021) Satellites, tweets, forecasts: the future of flood disaster management? In: KDD Workshop on Data-driven Humanitarian Mapping held with the 27th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD ’21), 14 AUG 2021, Online.

Ficchi, A., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Neves, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1201-5720, Woolnough, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514, Coughlan de Perez, E., Zsoter, E., Pinto, I., Meque, A. and Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 (2021) Beyond El Niño: unsung climate modes drive African floods. Weather and Climate Extremes, 33. 100345. ISSN 2212-0947 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100345

Brimicombe, C., Di Napoli, C., Cornforth, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556, Pappenberger, F., Petty, C. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2021) Borderless heat hazards with bordered impacts. Earth's Future, 9 (9). e2021EF002064. ISSN 2328-4277 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002064

Koriche, S. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1285-2035, Singarayer, J. S. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2021) The fate of the Caspian Sea under projected climate change and water extraction during the 21st century. Environmental Research Letters, 16 (9). 094024. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1af5

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Towner, J., Ficchi, A., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Bazo, J., Coughlan de Perez, E. and Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 (2021) Influence of ENSO and tropical Atlantic climate variability on flood characteristics in the Amazon basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25. pp. 3875-3895. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3875-2021

Titley, H. A., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Harrigan, S., Pappenberger, F., Prudhomme, C., Robbins, J. C., Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 and Zsoter, E. (2021) Key factors influencing the severity of fluvial flood hazard from tropical cyclones. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 22 (7). pp. 1801-1817. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0250.1

Urban, A., Di Napoli, C. D., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Kyselý, J., Pappenberger, F., Sera, F., Schneider, R., Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Acquaotta, F., Ragettli, M. S., Íñiguez, C., Tobias, A., Indermitte, E., Orru, H., Jaakkola, J. J. K., Ryti, N. R. I., Pascal, M., Huber, V., Schneider, A., de Donato, F., Michelozzi, P. and Gasparrini, A. (2021) Evaluation of the ERA5 reanalysis-based Universal Thermal Climate Index on mortality data in Europe. Environmental Research, 198. 111227. ISSN 0013-9351 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2021.111227

Mason, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Bevington, J., Dance, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Revilla-Romero, B., Smith, R., Vetra-Carvalho, S. and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2021) Improving urban flood mapping by merging Synthetic Aperture Radar-derived flood footprints with flood hazard maps. Water, 13 (11). 1577. ISSN 2073-4441 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111577

Savelli, E., Rusca, M., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Di Baldassarre, G. (2021) Don’t blame the rain: social power and the 2015-2017 drought in Cape Town. Journal of Hydrology, 594. 125953. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125953

Mason, D. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338 and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2021) Floodwater detection in urban areas using Sentinel-1 and WorldDEM data. Journal of Applied Remote Sensing, 15 (3). 032003. ISSN 1931-3195 doi: https://doi.org/10.1117/1.JRS.15.032003

Brimicombe, C., Porter, J. J., Di Napoli, C., Pappenberger, F., Cornforth, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556, Petty, C. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2021) Heatwaves: an invisible risk in UK policy and research. Environmental Science & Policy, 116. pp. 1-7. ISSN 1462-9011 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.10.021

Di Napoli, C., Barnard, C., Prudhomme, C., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. (2021) ERA5-HEAT: a global gridded historical dataset of human thermal comfort indices from climate reanalysis. Geoscience Data Journal, 8 (1). pp. 2-10. ISSN 2049-6060 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.102

Wagener, T., Dadson, S. J., Hannah, D. M., Coxon, G., Beven, K., Bloomfield, J. P., Buytaert, W., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Bates, P., Holden, J., Parry, L., Lamb, R., Chappell, N. A., Fry, M. and Old, G. (2021) Knowledge gaps in our perceptual model of Great Britain’s hydrology. Hydrological Processes, 35 (7). e14288. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14288

Zsoter, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7998-0130, Prudhomme, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1722-2497, Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Pappenberger, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1766-2898 and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2020) Using ensemble reforecasts to generate flood thresholds for improved global flood forecasting. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 13 (4). e12658. ISSN 1753-318X doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12658

Emerton, R., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Ficchi, A., Hawker, L., de Wit, S., Speight, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8700-157X, Prudhomme, C., Rundell, P., West, R., Neal, J., Cuna, J., Harrigan, S., Titley, H., Magnusson, L., Pappenberger, F., Klingaman, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303 and Stephens, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 (2020) Emergency flood bulletins for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth: a critical evaluation of the use of global flood forecasts for international humanitarian preparedness and response. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 50. 101811. ISSN 2212-4209 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101811

Zsótér, E., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Prudhomme, C., Harrigan, S., de Rosnay, P., Munoz-Sabater, J. and Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, (2020) Trends in the GloFAS-ERA5 river discharge reanalysis. ECMWF Technical Memoranda. 871. Technical Report. ECMWF doi: https://doi.org/10.21957/p9jrh0xp

Harrigan, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0992-3667, Zsoter, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7998-0130, Alfieri, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3616-386X, Prudhomme, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1722-2497, Salamon, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5419-5398, Wetterhall, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5419-5398, Barnard, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0558-0142, Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1766-2898 (2020) GloFAS-ERA5 operational global river discharge reanalysis 1979-present. Earth System Science Data, 12. pp. 2043-2060. ISSN 1866-3516 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2019-232

Harrigan, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0992-3667, Zsoter, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7998-0130, Alfieri, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3616-386X, Prudhomme, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1722-2497, Salamon, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5419-5398, Wetterhall, F., Barnard, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0558-0142, Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1766-2898 (2020) GloFAS-ERA5 operational global river discharge reanalysis 1979–present. Earth System Science Data, 12 (3). pp. 2043-2060. ISSN 1866-3516 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2043-2020

Arnal, L., Anspoks, L., Manson, S., Neumann, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3244-2578, Norton, T., Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Wolfenden, L. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2020) “Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England. Geoscience Communications, 3. pp. 203-232. ISSN 2569-7110 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-203-2020

Mason, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Garcia Pintado, J., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Dance, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338 and Munoz-Sabater, J., (2020) Assimilating high resolution remotely sensed soil moisture into a distributed hydrologic model to improve runoff prediction. ECMWF Technical Memoranda. 867. Technical Report. ECMWF, Reading, UK. doi: https://doi.org/10.21957/5isuz4a91

Richardson, D. S., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. (2020) Evaluation of the consistency of ECMWF ensemble forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (11). e2020GL087934. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087934

Lavers, D. A., Ramos, M.-H., Magnusson, L., Pechlivanidis, I., Klein, B., Prudhomme, C., Arnal, L., Crochemore, L., van den Hurk, B., Weerts, A. H., Harrigan, S., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Richardson, D. S. and Pappenberger, F. (2020) A vision for hydrological prediction. Atmosphere, 11 (3). 237. ISSN 2073-4433 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11030237

Titley, H. A., Bowyer, R. L. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2020) A global evaluation of multi-model ensemble tropical cyclone track probability forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (726). pp. 531-545. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3712

Beven, K., Asadullah, A., Bates, P., Blyth, E., Chappell, N., Child, S., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Dadson, S., Everard, N., Fowler, H. J., Freer, J., Hannah, D. M., Heppell, K., Holden, J., Lamb, R., Lewis, H., Morgan, G., Parry, L. and Wagener, T. (2020) Developing observational methods to drive future hydrological science: can we make a start as a community? Hydrological Processes, 34 (3). pp. 868-873. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13622

Towner, J., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Lavado, W., Santini, W., Bazo, J., Coughlan de Perez, E. and Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 (2020) Attribution of Amazon floods to modes of climate variability: a review. Meteorological Applications, 27 (5). e1949. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1949

Harrigan, S., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. (2020) Innovating global hydrological prediction through an Earth system approach. WMO Bulletin, 69 (1). ISSN 0042-9767

Vitolo, C., Di Napoli, C., Di Giuseppe, F., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. (2019) Mapping combined wildfire and heat stress hazards to improve evidence-based decision making. Environment International, 127. pp. 21-34. ISSN 0160-4120 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.03.008

Di Napoli, C., Pappenberger, F. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2019) Verification of heat stress thresholds for a health-based heatwave definition. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 58 (6). pp. 1177-1194. ISSN 1558-8432 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0246.1

Emerton, R. E., Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2019) What is the most useful approach for forecasting hydrological extremes during El Niño? Environmental Research Communications, 1 (3). ISSN 2515-7620 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab114e

Towner, J., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Zsoter, E., Flamig, Z., Hoch, J. M., Bazo, J., Coughlan de Perez, E. and Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 (2019) Assessing the performance of global hydrological models for capturing peak river flows in the Amazon basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23 (7). pp. 3057-3080. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3057-2019

Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Baugh, C. A. (2019) Cartograms for use in forecasting weather driven natural hazards. The Cartographic Journal, 56 (2). pp. 134-145. ISSN 0008-7041 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00087041.2018.1534358

Boelee, L., Lumbroso, D. M., Samuels, P. G. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2019) Estimation of uncertainty in flood forecasts - a comparison of methods. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 12 (S1). e12516. ISSN 1753-318X doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12516

Duan, Q., Pappenberger, F., Wood, A., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Schaake, J. C. (2019) Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting. Springer. ISBN 9783642399268

Zsoter, E., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, De Rosnay, P., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Prudhomme, C. and Pappenberger, F. (2019) How well do operational Numerical Weather Prediction configurations represent hydrology? Journal of Hydrometeorology, 20 (8). pp. 1533-1552. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0086.1

Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Ballard, S. P., Bannister, R. N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6846-8297, Clark, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1001-9226, Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Darlington, T., Flack, D. L. A., Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Hawkness-Smith, L., Husnoo, N., Illingworth, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5774-8410, Kelly, G. A., Lean, H. W., Li, D., Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220, Nicol, J. C., Oxley, A., Plant, R. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8808-0022, Roberts, N. M., Roulstone, I., Simonin, D., Thompson, R. J. and Waller, J. A. (2019) Improvements in forecasting intense rainfall: results from the FRANC (forecasting rainfall exploiting new data assimilation techniques and novel observations of convection) project. Atmosphere, 10 (3). 125. ISSN 2073-4433 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10030125

Neumann, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3244-2578, Arnal, L., Emerton, R., Griffith, H., Hyslop, S., Theofanidi, S. and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2018) Can seasonal hydrological forecasts inform local decisions and actions? A decision-making activity. Geoscience Communications, 1. pp. 35-57. ISSN 2569-7110 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-1-35-2018

Mehring, P., Geoghegan, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1401-8626, Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Clark, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0412-8824 (2018) What is going wrong with community engagement? How flood communities and flood authorities construct engagement and partnership working. Environmental Science & Policy, 89. pp. 109-115. ISSN 1462-9011 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2018.07.009

Mason, D. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Vetra-Carvalho, S. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2018) Robust algorithm for detecting floodwater in urban areas using Synthetic Aperture Radar images. Journal of Applied Remote Sensing, 12 (4). 045011. ISSN 1931-3195 doi: https://doi.org/10.1117/1.JRS.12.045011

Emerton, R., Zsoter, E., Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Muraro, D., Prudhomme, C., Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Salamon, P. and Pappenberger, F. (2018) Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal v1.0. Geoscientific Model Development, 11. pp. 3327-3346. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3327-2018

Hirpa, F. A., Pappenberger, F., Arnal, L., Baugh, C. A., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Dutra, E., Emerton, R. E., Revilla-Romero, B., Salamon, P., Smith, P. J., Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Wetterhall, F., Zsoter, E. and Thielen-del Pozo, J. (2018) Global flood forecasting for averting disasters worldwide. In: Schumann, G. J.-P., Bates, P. D., Apel, H. and Aronica, G. T. (eds.) Global Flood Hazard: Applications in Modeling, Mapping, and Forecasting. Geophysical Monograph Series (233). Wiley, pp. 205-228. ISBN 9781119217862 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119217886.ch12

Di Napoli, C., Pappenberger, F. and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2018) Assessing heat-related health risk in Europe via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). International Journal of Biometeorology, 62 (7). pp. 1155-1165. ISSN 1432-1254 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-018-1518-2

Neumann, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3244-2578, Arnal, L., Magnusson, L. and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2018) The 2013/14 Thames basin floods: do improved meteorological forecasts lead to more skilful hydrological forecasts at seasonal timescales? Journal of Hydrometeorology, 19. pp. 1059-1075. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0182.1

Largeron, C., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Verhoef, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9498-6696, Martinez-de la Torre, A. and Mueller, A., (2018) Impact of the representation of the infiltration on the river flow during intense rainfall events in JULES. ECMWF Technical Memoranda. 821. Technical Report. ECMWF, Reading, U.K..

Balsamo, G., Agustì-Parareda, A., Albergel, C., Arduini, G., Beljaars, A., Bidlot, J., Bousserez, N., Boussetta, S., Brown, A., Buizza, R., Buontempo, C., Chevallier, F., Choulga, M., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Cronin, M., Dahoui, M., De Rosnay, P., Dirmeyer, P., Drusch, M., Dutra, E., Ek, M., Gentine, P., Hewitt, H., Keeley, S., Kerr, Y., Kumar, S., Lupu, C., Mahfouf, J.-F., McNorton, J., Mecklenburg, S., Mogensen, K., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Orth, R., Rabier, F., Reichle, R., Ruston, B., Pappenberger, F., Sandu, I., Seneviratne, S., Tietsche, S., Trigo, I., Uijlenhoet, R., Wedi, N., Woolway, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0498-7968 and Zeng, X. (2018) Satellite and in situ observations for advancing global Earth surface modelling: a review. Remote Sensing, 10 (12). 2038. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10122038

Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Wetterhall, F., Prudhomme, C., Neumann, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3244-2578, Krzeminski, B. and Pappenberger, F. (2018) Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22 (4). pp. 2057-2072. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018

Arnal, L., Wood, A. W., Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. (2017) An efficient approach for estimating streamflow forecast skill elasticity. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 18 (6). pp. 1715-1729. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0259.1

Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, di Baldassarre, G., Landeg, O., Pappenberger, F. and Ramos, M.-H. (2017) Understanding disaster risk: hazard related issues - hydrological risk: flood. In: Poljanšek, K., Marín Ferrer, M., De Groeve, T. and Clark, I. (eds.) Science for Disaster Risk Management 2017: Knowing Better and Losing Less. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, pp. 198-208. ISBN 9789279606793 doi: https://doi.org/10.2788/842809

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pappenberger, F., Smith, P. J. and Wetterhall, F. (2017) How do I know if I’ve improved my continental scale flood early warning system? Environmental Research Letters, 12 (4). 044006. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa625a

Emerton, R., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Zsoter, E., Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 and Pappenberger, F. (2017) Complex picture for likelihood of ENSO-driven flood hazard. Nature Communications, 8. 14796. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14796

Mueller, A., Dutra, E., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Verhoef, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9498-6696, Balsamo, G. and Pappenberger, F., (2016) Water infiltration and redistribution in Land Surface Models. Technical Memorandum. 791. Technical Report. ECMWF, Reading, UK.

Arnal, L., Ramos, M.-H., Coughlan de Perez, E., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Wetterhall, F., van Andel, S.-J. and Pappenberger, F. (2016) Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20 (8). pp. 3109-3128. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016

MacLeod, D., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pappenberger, F. and Weisheimer, A. (2016) Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20 (7). pp. 2737-2743. ISSN 1607-7938 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2737-2016

Emerton, R. E., Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Pappenberger, F., Pagano, T. C., Weerts, A. H., Wood, A. W., Salamon, P., Brown, J. D., Hjerdt, N., Donnelly, C., Baugh, C. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2016) Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 3 (3). pp. 391-418. ISSN 2049-1948 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1137

Mason, D. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Garcia-Pintado, J., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338 (2016) Evidence of a topographic signal in surface soil moisture derived from ENVISAT ASAR wide swath data. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and GeoInformation, 45. pp. 178-186. ISSN 0303-2434 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2015.02.004

Mason, D. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Trigg, M., Garcia-Pintado, J., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Neal, J. C. and Bates, P. D. (2016) Improving the TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model for flood modelling using flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images. Remote Sensing of Environment, 173. pp. 15-28. ISSN 0034-4257 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2015.11.018

Macleod, D. A., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pappenberger, F. and Weisheimer, A. (2016) Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (694). pp. 79-90. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2631

Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Day, J. J., Pappenberger, F. and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2015) Precipitation and floodiness. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (23). pp. 10316-10323. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066779

Mason, D. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Garcia-Pintado, J., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338 (2015) The potential of flood forecasting using a variable-resolution global Digital Terrain Model and flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images. Frontiers in Earth Science, 3. 43. ISSN 2296-6463 doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2015.00043

Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Parker, D. J., Wetterhall, F., Richardson, D. S. and Thielen, J. (2015) The monetary benefit of early flood warnings in Europe. Environmental Science and Policy, 51. pp. 278-291. ISSN 1873-6416 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.04.016

Kauffeldt, A., Halldin, S., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., Xu, C.-Y. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2015) Imbalanced land-surface water budgets in a numerical weather prediction system. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (11). pp. 4411-4417. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064230

Pappenberger, F., Ramos, M. H., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Wetterhall, F., Alfieri, L., Bogner, K., Mueller, A. and Salamon, P. (2015) How do I know if my forecasts are better? Using benchmarks in Hydrological ensemble prediction. Journal of Hydrology, 522. pp. 697-713. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.024

Beven, K., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pappenberger, F., Lamb, R. and Hunter, N. (2015) Hyperresolution information and hyperresolution ignorance in modelling the hydrology of the land surface. Science China Earth Sciences, 58 (1). pp. 25-35. ISSN 1869-1897 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-014-5003-4

Balsamo, G., Albergel, C., Beljaars, A., Boussetta, S., Brun, E., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Dee, D., Dutra, E., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Pappenberger, F., de Rosnay, P., Stockdale, T. and Vitart, F. (2015) ERA-Interim/Land: a global land surface reanalysis data set. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19 (1). pp. 389-407. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-389-2015

Garcia-Pintado, J., Mason, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Neal, J. C., Freer, J. and Bates, P. D. (2015) Satellite-supported flood forecasting in river networks: a real case study. Journal of Hydrology, 523. pp. 706-724. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.084

Pagano, T. C., Wood, A. W., Ramos, M.-H., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pappenberger, F., Clark, M. P., Cranston, M., Kavetski, D., Mathevet, T., Sorooshian, S. and Verkade, J. S. (2014) Challenges of operational river forecasting. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 15 (4). pp. 1692-1707. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0188.1

Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2014) Improving flood forecasts for better flood preparedness in the UK (and beyond). Geographical Journal, 180 (4). pp. 310-316. ISSN 1475-4959 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/geoj.12103

Ye, J., He, Y., Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Manful, D. Y. and Li, Z. (2014) Evaluation of ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140 (682). pp. 1615-1628. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2243

Sampson, C. C., Fewtrell, T. J., O'Loughlin, F., Pappenberger, F., Bates, P., Freer, J. E. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2014) The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a flood catastrophe model. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18. pp. 2305-2324. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2305-2014

Mason, D. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Giustarini, L., Garcia-Pintado, J. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2014) Detection of flooded urban areas in high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar images using double scattering. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and GeoInformation, 28. pp. 150-159. ISSN 0303-2434 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2013.12.002

Pappenberger, F., Jendritzky, G., Staiger, H., Dutra, E., Di Giuseppe, F., Richardson, D. S. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2014) Global forecasting of thermal health hazards: the skill of probabilistic predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). International Journal of Biometeorology, 59 (3). pp. 311-323. ISSN 1432-1254 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-014-0843-3

Souvignet, M., Laux, P., Freer, J., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Thinh, D. Q., Thuc, T., Cullmann, J., Nauditt, A., Flugel, W.-A., Kunstmann, H. and Ribbe, L. (2014) Recent climatic trends and linkages to river discharge in Central Vietnam. Hydrological Processes, 28 (4). pp. 1587-1601. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9693

Wetterhall, F., Pappenberger, F., Alfieri, L., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Thielen-del Pozo, J., Balabanova, S., Daňhelka, J., Vogelbacher, A., Salamon, P., Carrasco, I., Cabrera-Tordera, A. J., Corzo-Toscano, M., Garcia-Padilla, M., Garcia-Sanchez, R. J., Ardilouze, C., Jurela, S., Terek, B., Csik, A., Casey, J., Stankūnavičius, G., Ceres, V., Sprokkereef, E., Stam, J., Anghel, E., Vladikovic, D., Alionte Eklund, C., Hjerdt, N., Djerv, H., Holmberg, F., Nilsson, J., Nyström, K., Sušnik, M., Hazlinger, M. and Holubecka, M. (2013) Forecasters priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts. Hydology and Earth System Sciences, 17. pp. 4389-4399. ISSN 1607-7938 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4389-2013

Parkes, B. L., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pappenberger, F., Neal, J. and Demeritt, D. (2013) Reducing inconsistencies in point observations of maximum flood inundation level. Earth Interactions, 17 (6). pp. 1-27. ISSN 1087-3562 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2012EI000475.1

Dutra, E., Magnusson, L., Wetterhall, F., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Balsamo, G., Boussetta, S. and Pappenberger, F. (2013) The 2010-2011 drought in the Horn of Africa in ECMWF reanalysis and seasonal forecast products. International Journal of Climatology, 33 (7). pp. 1720-1729. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3545

Dale, M., Ji, Y., Wicks, J., Mylne, K., Pappenberger, F. and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, (2013) Applying probabilistic flood forecasting in flood incident management. Flood & Coastal Erosion Risk Management Research and Development Programme. Technical Report. Environment Agency, Bristol. pp89. ISBN 9781849112963

Demeritt, D., Nobert, S. , Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. (2013) The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management. Hydrological Processes, 27 (1). pp. 147-157. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9419

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Wetterhall, F., He, Y., Freer, J. E. and Pappenberger, F. (2013) Modelling climate impact on floods with ensemble climate projections. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139 (671 part B). pp. 282-297. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1998

Parkes, , B. L., Wetterhall, F., Pappenberger, F. , He, , Y., Malamud, B. D. and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2013) Assessment of a 1 hour gridded precipitation dataset to drive a hydrological model: a case study of the summer 2007 floods in the Upper Severn, UK. Hydrology Research, 44 (1). pp. 89-105. ISSN 0029-1277 doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2011.025 (Vol 44 No 1 pp 89–105)

He, Y., Pappenberger, F., Manful, D., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Bates, P., Wetterhall, F. and Parkes, B. (2013) Flood inundation dynamics and socioeconomic vulnerability under environmental change. In: Hossain, F. (ed.) Vulnerability of Water Resources to Climate. Climate Vulnerability, 5. Elsevier Sciences, pp. 241-255. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-384703-4.00508-6

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pappenberger, F., van Andel, S. J., Schaake, J., Thielen, J. and Ramos, M.-H. (2013) Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS). Preface to special issue. Hydrological Processes, 27 (1). pp. 1-4. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9679

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pappenberger, F., Thielen, J. and Thiemig, V. (2013) Operational flood forecasting in Europe. In: Wainwright, J. and Mulligan, M. (eds.) Environmental Modelling: Finding Simplicity in Complexity. Wiley-Blackwell, New York, pp. 315-434. ISBN 9780470749111

Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., Dutra, E., Di Giuseppe, F., Bogner, K., Alfieri, L. and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2013) Seamless forecasting of extreme events on a global scale. In: Climate and Land Surface Changes in Hydrology, H01, IAHS-IAPSO-IASPEI Assembly, Jul 2013, Gothenburg, Sweden,.

Dutra, E., Magnusson, L., Wetterhall, F., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Balsamo, G., Boussetta, S. and Pappenberger, F., (2012) The 2010-2011 drought in the Horn of Africa. ECMWF Newsletters. 131. Technical Report. ECMWF (Spring 2012)

Beven, K. J. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2012) Comment on: Hyperresolution global land surface modeling: Meeting a grand challenge for monitoring Earth's terrestrial water by Eric F Wood et al. Water Resources Research, 48 (1). W01801. ISSN 0043-1397 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR010982

Wetterhall, F., Pappenberger, F., He, Y., Freer, J. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2012) Conditioning model output statistics of regional climate model precipitation on circulation patterns. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19. pp. 623-633. ISSN 1023-5809 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-19-623-2012

Pappenberger, F., Dutra, E., Wetterhall, F. and Cloke, H.L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2012) Deriving global flood hazard maps of fluvial floods through a physical model cascade. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16 (11). pp. 4143-4156. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4143-2012

Bogner, K., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pappenberger, F., De Roo, A. and Thielen, J. (2012) Improving the evaluation of hydrological multi-model forecast performance in the Upper Danube Catchment. International Journal of River Basin Management, 10 (1). pp. 1-12. ISSN 1814-2060 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2011.625359

Balsamo, G., Albergel, A., Beljaars, A., Boussetta, S., Brun, E., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Dee, D., (2012) Land: a global land-surface reanalysis based on ERA-interim meteorological forcing. ERA Report Series. 13. Technical Report. ECMWF

Bogner, K., Pappenberger, F. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2012) Technical Note: The normal quantile transformation and its application in a flood forecasting system. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16. pp. 1085-1094. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1085-2012

De Roo, A., Thielen, J., Salamon, P., Bogner, K., Nobert, S., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Demeritt, D., Younis, J., Kalas, M., Bodis, K., Muraro, D. and Pappenberger, F. (2011) Quality control, validation and user feedback of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS). International Journal of Digital Earth, 4 (1). pp. 77-90. ISSN 1753-8955 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2010.510302

Bao, H.-J., Zhao, L.-N., He, Y., Li, Z.-J., Wetterhall, F., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pappenberger, F. and Manful, D. (2011) Coupling ensemble weather predictions based on TIGGE database with Grid-Xinanjiang model for flood forecast. Advances in Geosciences (ADGEO), 29. pp. 61-67. ISSN 1680-7340 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-29-61-2011

Wetterhall, F., He, Y., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. (2011) Effects of temporal resolution of input precipitation on the performance of hydrological forecasting. Advances in Geosciences (ADGEO), 29. pp. 21-25. ISSN 1680-7340 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-29-21-2011

Pappenberger, F., Bogner, K., Wetterhall, F., He, Y., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Thielen, J. (2011) Forecast convergence score: a forecaster's approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems. Advances in Geosciences (ADGEO), 29. pp. 27-32. ISSN 1680-7340 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-29-27-2011

Pappenberger, F. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2011) HESS Opinions: On forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: curse or blessing? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15 (7). pp. 2391-2400. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2391-2011

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Hannah, D. M. (2011) Large-scale hydrology: advances in understanding processes, dynamics and models from beyond river basin to global scale. Preface to special issue. Hydrological Processes, 25 (7). pp. 991-995. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8059

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Weisheimer, A. and Pappenberger, F. (2011) Representing uncertainty in land surface hydrology: fully coupled simulations with the ECMWF land surface scheme. In: ECMWF/WMO/WCRP Workshop on Representing Model Uncertainty and Error in Numerical Weather and climate Prediction Models, 20-24 June 2011, ECMWF, Reading UK.

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Jeffers, C., Wetterhall, F., Byrne, T., Lowe, J. and Pappenberger, F. (2010) Climate impacts on river flow: projections for the Medway catchment UK with UKCP09 and CATCHMOD. Hydrological Processes, 24 (24). pp. 3476-3489. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7769

Demeritt, D., Nobert, S., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. (2010) Challenges in communicating and using ensembles in operational flood forecasting. Meteorological Applications, 17 (2). pp. 209-222. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.194

He, Y., Wetterhall, F., Bao, H., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Li, Z., Pappenberger, F., Hu, Y., Manful, D. and Huang, Y. (2010) Ensemble forecasting using TIGGE for the July-September 2008 floods in the Upper Huai catchment: a case study. Atmospheric Science Letters, 11 (2). pp. 132-138. ISSN 1530-261X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.270

Nobert, S., Demeritt, D. and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2010) Informing operational flood management with ensemble predictions: lessons from Sweden. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 3 (1). pp. 72-79. ISSN 1753-318X doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-318X.2009.01056.x

Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Balsamo, G.-P. and Oki, T. (2010) Global runoff routing with the hydrological component of the ECMWF NWP system. International Journal of Climatology, 30. pp. 2155-2174. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2028

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. (2009) Ensemble flood forecasting: a review. Journal of Hydrology, 375 (3-4). pp. 613-626. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.005

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, (2009) Progress in the implementation of Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) in Europe for operational flood forecasting. ECMWF Newsletters. 121. Technical Report. ECMWF (Autumn 2009)

He, Y., Wetterhall, F., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pappenberger, F., Wilson, M., Freer, J. and McGregor, G. (2009) Tracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictions. Meteorological Applications, 16 (1). pp. 91-101. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.132

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Pappenberger, F. and Renaud, J.-P. (2008) Multi-method global sensitivity analysis (MMGSA) for modelling floodplain hydrological processes. Hydrological Processes, 22 (11). pp. 1660-1674. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6734

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. (2008) Evaluating forecasts of extreme events for hydrological applications: an approach for screening unfamiliar performance measures. Meteorological Applications, 15 (1). pp. 181-197. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.58

Pappenberger, F., Bartholmes, J., Thielen, J., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Buizza, R. and de Roo, A. (2008) New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand-ensemble weather predictions. Geophysical Research Letters, 35. L10404. ISSN 1944–8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033837

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Anderson, M. G., McDonnell, J. J. and Renaud, J. -P. (2006) Using numerical modelling to evaluate the capillary fringe groundwater ridging hypothesis of streamflow generation. Journal of Hydrology, 316 (1-4). pp. 141-162. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.04.017

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Anderson, M. G. and Renaud, J.-P. (2006) Development of a modelling methodology for the investigation of riparian hydrological processes. Hydrological Processes, 20 (1). pp. 85-107. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.5900

Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Renaud, J.-P., Claxton, A. J., McDonnell, J. J., Anderson, M. G., Blake, J. R. and Bates, P. D. (2003) The effect of model configuration on modelled hillslope–riparian interactions. Journal of Hydrology, 279 (1-4). pp. 167-181. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00177-X