O'Reilly, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8630-1650, Macleod, D., Befort, D., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Weisheimer, A. (2025) Evaluating seasonal forecast improvements over the past two decades. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.70036

O'Reilly, C. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8630-1650 (2025) Signal-to-noise errors in early winter Euro-Atlantic predictions linked to weak ENSO teleconnections and pervasive jet biases. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 151 (769). e4952. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.4952

Patterson, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9484-8410 and O'Reilly, C. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8630-1650 (2025) Climate models struggle to simulate observed North Pacific jet trends, even accounting for tropical Pacific sea surface temperature trends. Geophysical Research Letters, 52 (4). e2024GL113561. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: 10.1029/2024GL113561

Gao, Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6444-6544, Guo, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4793-6315, Lu, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8245-6930, Woolings, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5815-9079, Chen, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0288-5618, Guo, X., Kou, W., Zhang, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6569-9842, Leung, L. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3221-9467, Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, O'Reilly, C. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8630-1650, Guo, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6276-6499, Li, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0625-1575, Gao, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4274-0811 and Wu, L. (2025) Enhanced simulation of atmospheric blocking in a high‐resolution earth system model: projected changes and implications for extreme weather events. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 130 (3). e2024JD042045. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: 10.1029/2024JD042045

Patterson, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9484-8410, Befort, D. J., O'Reilly, C. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8630-1650 and Weisheimer, A. (2024) Drivers of the ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal forecast for the hot and dry European summer of 2022. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 150 (765). pp. 4969-4986. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.4851

Patterson, M., O'Reilly, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8630-1650, Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X and Woollings, T. (2024) Disentangling North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere coupling using circulation analogues. Journal of Climate, 37 (14). pp. 3791-3805. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0602.1

Kolstad, E. W. and O'Reilly, C. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8630-1650 (2024) Causal oceanic feedbacks onto the winter NAO. Climate Dynamics, 62. pp. 4223-4236. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-024-07128-y

O'Reilly, C. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8630-1650, Drouard, M., Ayarzagüena, B., Ambaum, M. H. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6824-8083 and Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 (2024) The role of storm-track dynamics in the intraseasonal variability of the winter ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 150 (761). pp. 2069-2086. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.4691

O'Reilly, C. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8630-1650, Brunner, L., Qasmi, S., Nogherotto, R., Ballinger, A. P., Booth, B., Befort, D. J., Knutti, R., Schurer, A. P., Ribes, A., Weisheimer, A., Coppola, E. and McSweeney, C. (2024) Assessing observational constraints on future European climate in an out-of-sample framework. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7. 95. ISSN 2397-3722 doi: 10.1038/s41612-024-00648-8

Senapati, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5029-9731, O'Reilly, C. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8630-1650 and Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X (2024) Pivotal role of mixed-layer depth in Tropical Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (15). e2024GL110057. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: 10.1029/2024GL110057

Ballinger, A. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3704-1976, Schurer, A. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9176-3622, O'Reilly, C. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8630-1650 and Hegerl, G. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4159-1295 (2023) The importance of accounting for the north Atlantic oscillation when applying observational constraints to European climate projections. Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (16). e2023GL103431. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: 10.1029/2023gl103431

O'Reilly, C. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8630-1650, Patterson, M., Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Hodson, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700 and Ruprich-Robert, Y. (2023) Challenges with interpreting the impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability using SST-restoring experiments. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6. 14. ISSN 2397-3722 doi: 10.1038/s41612-023-00335-0

Befort, D. J., Brunner, L., Borchert, L. F., O'Reilly, C. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8630-1650, Mignot, J., Ballinger, A. P., Hegerl, G. C., Murphy, J. M. and Weisheimer, A. (2022) Combination of decadal predictions and climate projections in time: challenges and potential solutions. Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (15). e2022GL098568. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2022GL098568

Patterson, M., O'Reilly, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8630-1650, Woollings, T., Weisheimer, A. and Wu, B. (2022) SST-driven variability of the East Asian summer jet on a decadal time-scale in CMIP6 models. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 148 (743). pp. 581-598. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.4219

Beverley, J. D., Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514, Baker, L. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Johnson, S. J., Weisheimer, A. and O'Reilly, C. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8630-1650 (2021) Dynamical mechanisms linking Indian monsoon precipitation and the circumglobal teleconnection. Climate Dynamics, 57. pp. 2615-2636. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-021-05825-6

O'Reilly, C. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8630-1650, Befort, D. J., Weisheimer, A., Woollings, T., Ballinger, A. and Gabriele, H. (2021) Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty. Communications Earth & Environment, 2 (194). ISSN 2662-4435 doi: 10.1038/s43247-021-00268-7