Article

Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Rosenzweig, C., Jones, J. W., Hatfield, J. L., Ruane, A. C., Boote, K. J., Thorburn, P. J., Rötter, R. P., Cammarano, D., Brisson, N., Basso, B., Martre, P., Aggarwal, P. K., Angulo, C., Bertuzzi, P., Biernath, C., Challinor, A. J., Doltra, J., Gayler, S., Goldberg, R., Grant, R., Heng, L., Hooker, J., Hunt, L. A., Ingwersen, J., Izaurralde, R. C., Kersebaum, K. C., Müller, C., Naresh Kumar, S., Nendel, C., O’Leary, G., Olesen, J. E., Osborne, T., Palosuo, T., Priesack, E., Ripoche, D., Semenov, M. A., Shcherbak, I., Steduto, P., Stöckle, C., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Travasso, M., Waha, K., Wallach, D., White, J. W., Williams, J. R. and Wolf, J. (2013) Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nature Climate Change, 3 (9). pp. 827-832. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1916

Ba, J., Keenlyside, N. S., Park, W., Latif, M., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Ding, H. (2013) A mechanism for Atlantic multidecadal variability in the Kiel Climate Model. Climate Dynamics, 41 (7-8). pp. 2133-2144. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1633-4

Ballarotta, M., Drijfhout, S., Kuhlbrodt, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2328-6729 and Döös, K. (2013) The residual circulation of the Southern Ocean: which spatio-temporal scales are needed? Ocean Modelling, 64. pp. 46-55. ISSN 1463-5003 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2013.01.005

Bell, R., Strachan, J., Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460, Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X and Roberts, M. (2013) Response of tropical cyclones to idealized climate change experiments in a global high resolution coupled general circulation model. Journal of Climate, 26 (20). pp. 7966-7980. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00749.1

Berckmans, J., Woollings, T., Demory, M.-E., Vidale, P.-L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 and Roberts, M. (2013) Atmospheric blocking in a high resolution climate model: influences of mean state, orography and eddy forcing. Atmospheric Science Letters, 14 (1). pp. 34-40. ISSN 1530-261X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.412

Blackburn, M. and Hoskins, B. J. (2013) Context and aims of the Aqua-Planet Experiment. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 91A. pp. 1-15. ISSN 2186-9057 doi: https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2013-A01

Blackburn, M., Williamson, D. L., Nakajima, K., Ohfuchi, W., Takahashi, Y. O., Hayashi, Y.-Y., Nakamura, H., Ishiwatari, M., McGregor, J. L., Borth, H., Wirth, V., Frank, H., Bechtold, P., Wedi, N. P., Tomita, H., Satoh, M., Zhao, M., Held, I. M., Suarez, M. J., Lee, M.-I., Watanabe, M., Kimoto, M., Liu, Y., Wang, Z., Molod, A., Rajendran, K., Kitoh, A. and Stratton, R. (2013) The Aqua-Planet Experiment (APE): CONTROL SST Simulation. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 91A. pp. 17-56. ISSN 2186-9057 doi: https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2013-A02

Booth, B. B. B., Bernie, D., McNeall, D., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Caesar, J., Boulton, C., Friedlingstein, P. and Sexton, D. M. H. (2013) Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models. Earth System Dynamics, 4 (1). pp. 95-108. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-95-2013

Bouttes, N., Gregory, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644 and Lowe, J. A. (2013) The reversibility of sea level rise. Journal of Climate, 26 (8). pp. 2502-2513. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00285.1

Boyd, E., Cornforth, R. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556, Lamb, P. J., Tarhule, A., Lélé, M. I. and Brouder, A. (2013) Building resilience in the face of recurring environmental crisis in African Sahel. Nature Climate Change, 3 (7). pp. 631-637. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1856

Bracegirdle, T. J., Shuckburgh, E., Sallee, J.-B., Wang, Z., Meijers, A. J. S., Bruneau, N., Phillips, T. and Wilcox, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 (2013) Assessment of surface winds over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 models: historical bias, forcing response, and state dependence. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 118 (2). pp. 547-562. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50153

Charlton-Perez, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8179-6220, Baldwin, M. P., Birner, T., Black, R. X., Butler, A. H., Calvo, N., Davis, N. A., Gerber, E. P., Gillett, N., Hardiman, S., Kim, J., Krüger, K., Lee, Y.-Y., Manzini, E., McDaniel, B. A., Polvani, L., Reichler, T., Shaw, T. A., Sigmond, M., Son, S.-W., Toohey, M., Wilcox, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Yoden, S., Christiansen, B., Lott, F., Shindell, D., Yukimoto, S. and Watanabe, S. (2013) On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low-top versions of the CMIP5 models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118 (6). pp. 2494-2505. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50125

Church, J. A., Monselesan, D., Gregory, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644 and Marzeion, B. (2013) Evaluating the ability of process based models to project sea-level change. Environmental Research Letters, 8. 014051. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014051

Collins, M., AchutaRao, K., Ashok, K., Bhandari, S., Karumuri, A., Mitra, A., Prakash, S., Srivistava, R. and Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2013) Observational challenges in evaluating climate models. Nature Climate Change, 3. pp. 940-941. ISSN 1758-6798 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2012

Connolly, P. J., Vaughan, G., Cook, P., Allen, G., Coe, H., Choularton, T. W., Dearden, C. and Hill, A. (2013) Modelling the effects of gravity waves on stratocumulus clouds observed during VOCALS-UK. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13 (14). pp. 7133-7152. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7133-2013

Cornforth, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556 (2013) Weathering drought in Africa. Appropriate Technology, 40 (2). pp. 26-28. ISSN 1751-6900

Cornforth, R. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556 (2013) West African monsoon 2012. Weather, 68 (10). pp. 256-263. ISSN 1477-8696 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.2161

Dawson, A., Matthews, A. J., Stevens, D. P., Roberts, M. J. and Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 (2013) Importance of oceanic resolution and mean state on the extra-tropical response to El Niño in a matrix of coupled models. Climate Dynamics, 41 (5-6). pp. 1439-1452. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1518-6

Demory, M.-E., Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460, Roberts, M. J., Berrisford, P., Strachan, J., Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856 and Mizielinski, M. S. (2013) The role of horizontal resolution in simulating drivers of the global hydrological cycle. Climate Dynamics, 42 (7-8). pp. 2201-2225. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1924-4

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 and Lu, R. (2013) Interdecadal enhancement of the Walker circulation over the Tropical Pacific in the late 1990s. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 30 (2). pp. 247-262. ISSN 1861-9533 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-012-2069-9

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Woollings, T. (2013) The extreme European summer 2012. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 94 (9). s28-s32. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00085.1

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Woollings, T. and Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2013) Variability of the North Atlantic summer storm track: mechanisms and impacts on European climate. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (3). 034037. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034037

Dufresne, J.-L., Foujols, M. A., Denvil, S., Caubel, A., Marti, O., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y., Bekki, S., Bellenger, H., Benshila, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Cheruy, F., Codron, F., Cozic, A., Cugnet, D., de Noblet, N., Duvel, J. P., Ethe, C., Fairhead, L., Fichefet, T., Flavoni, S., Friedlingstein, P., Grandpeix, J. Y., Guez, L., Guilyardi, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2255-8625, Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Ghattas, J., Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Krinner, G., Labetoulle, S., Lahellec, A., Lefebvre, M. P., Lefevre, F., Levy, C., Li, Z. X., Lloyd, J., Lott, F., Madec, G., Mancip, M., Marchand, M., Masson, S., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Parouty, S., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Schulz, M., Swingedouw, D., Szopa, S., Talandier, C., Terray, P., Viovy, N. and Vuichard, N. (2013) Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5. Climate Dynamics, 40 (9). pp. 2123-2165. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1

Eby, M., Weaver, A.J., Alexander, K., Zickfeld, K., Abe-Ouchi, A., Cimatoribus, A.A., Crespin, E., Drijfhout, S.S., Edwards, N.R., Eliseev, A.V., Feulner, G., Fichefet, T., Forest, C.E., Goosse, H., Holden, P.B., Joos, F., Kawamiya, M., Kicklighter, D., Kienert, H., Matsumoto, K., Mokhov, I.I., Monier, E., Olsen, S.M., Pedersen, J.O.P., Perrette, M., Philippon-Berthier, G., Ridgwell, A., Schlosser, A., Schneider von Deimling, T., Shaffer, G., Smith, R.S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7479-7778, Spahnill, R., Sokolov, A.P., Steinacher, M., Tachiiri, K., Tokos, K., Yoshimori, M., Zeng, N. and Zhao, F. (2013) Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity. Climate of the Past, 9. pp. 1111-1140. ISSN 1814-9324 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013

Fontaine, B., Janicot, S. and Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559 (2013) Recent changes in air temperature, heat waves occurrences, and atmospheric circulation in Northern Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118 (15). pp. 8536-8552. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50667

Forster, P. M., Andrews, T., Good, P., Gregory, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644, Jackson, L. S. and Zelinka, M. (2013) Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models. Journal of Geophysical Research, 118 (3). pp. 1139-1150. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50174

Goddard, L., Kumar, A., Solomon, A., Smith, D., Boer, G., Gonzalez, P., Kharin, V., Merryfield, W., Deser, C., Mason, S. J., Kirtman, B. P., Msadek, R., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Fricker, T., Hegerl, G., Ferro, C. A. T., Stephenson, D. B., Meehl, G. A., Stockdale, T., Burgman, R., Greene, A. M., Kushnir, Y., Newman, M., Carton, J., Fukumori, I. and Delworth, T. (2013) A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments. Climate Dynamics, 40 (1-2). pp. 245-272. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2

Good, P., Gregory, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644, Lowe, J. A. and Andrews, T. (2013) Abrupt CO2 experiments as tools for predicting and understanding CMIP5 representative concentration pathway projections. Climate Dynamics, 40 (3-4). pp. 1041-1053. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1410-4

Gray, L. J., Scaife, A. A., Mitchell, D. M., Osprey, S., Ineson, S., Hardiman, S., Butchart, N., Knight, J., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Kodera, K. (2013) A lagged response to the 11 year solar cycle in observed winter Atlantic/European weather patterns. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118 (24). 13,405-13,420. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020062

Gregory, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644, Bi, D., Collier, M. A., Dix, M. R., Hirst, A. C., Hu, A., Huber, M., Knutti, R., Marsland, S. J., Meinshausen, M., Rashid, H. A., Rotstayn, L. D., Schurer, A. and Church, J. A. (2013) Climate models without pre-industrial volcanic forcing underestimate historical ocean thermal expansion. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (8). pp. 1600-1604. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50339

Gregory, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644, White, N. J., Church, J. A., Bierkens, M. F. P., Box, J. E., Van den Broeke, M. R., Cogley, J. G., Fettweis, X., Hanna, E., Huybrechts, P., Konikow, L. F., Leclercq, P. W., Marzeion, B., Oerlemans, J., Tamisiea, M. E., Wada, Y., Wake, L. M. and Van de Wal, R. S. W. (2013) Twentieth-century global-mean sea-level rise: is the whole greater than the sum of the parts? Journal of Climate, 26 (13). pp. 4476-4499. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00319.1

Guo, L., Highwood, E., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2013) The effect of regional changes in anthropogenic aerosols on rainfall of the East Asian summer monsoon. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13. pp. 1521-1534. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1521-2013

Haigh, I. D., Wijeratne, E. M. S., MacPherson, L. R., Pattiaratchi, C. B., Mason, M. S., Crompton, R. P. and George, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0396-0299 (2013) Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level. Climate Dynamics, 42 (1-2). pp. 121-138. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1652-1

Hannachi, A. and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2013) Isomap nonlinear dimensionality reduction and bimodality of Asian monsoon convection. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (8). pp. 1653-1658. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50351

Hannachi, A. and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2013) 20th century intraseasonal Asian monsoon dynamics viewed from Isomap. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 20 (5). pp. 725-741. ISSN 1607-7946 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-725-2013

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Jones, P. D. (2013) On increasing global temperatures: 75 years after Callendar. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139 (677). pp. 1961-1963. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2178

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Fricker, T. E., Challinor, A. J., Ferro, C. A. T., Ho, C. K. and Osborne, T. M. (2013) Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s. Global Change Biology, 19 (3). pp. 937-947. ISSN 1365-2486 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12069

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Osborne, T. M., Ho, C. K. and Challinor, A. J. (2013) Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: an idealised case study over Europe. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170. pp. 19-31. ISSN 0168-1923 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.007

Hirons, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, Inness, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0005-5795-6841, Vitart, F. and Bechtold, P. (2013) Understanding advances in the simulation of intraseasonal variability in the ECMWF model. Part I: the representation of the MJO. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139 (675). pp. 1417-1426. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2060

Hirons, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, Inness, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0005-5795-6841, Vitart, F. and Bechtold, P. (2013) Understanding advances in the simulation of intraseasonal variability in the ECMWF model. Part II: the application of process-based diagnostics. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139 (675). pp. 1427-1444. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2059

Ho, C. K., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Underwood, F. M. (2013) Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions. Climate Dynamics, 41 (3-4). pp. 917-935. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1531-9

Ho, C. K., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Bröcker, J., Hermanson, L., Murphy, J. M., Smith, D. M. and Eade, R. (2013) Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: the role of ensemble dispersion. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (21). pp. 5770-5775. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL057630

Hodson, D. L. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700, Keeley, S. P. E., West, A., Ridley, J., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Hewitt, H. T. (2013) Identifying uncertainties in Arctic climate change projections. Climate Dynamics, 40 (11-12). pp. 2849-2865. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1512-z

Holloway, C. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9903-8989, Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 and Lister, G. M. S. (2013) The effects of explicit versus parameterized convection on the MJO in a large-domain high-resolution tropical case study. Part I: Characterization of large-scale organization and propagation. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 70 (5). pp. 1342-1369. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0227.1

John, V. O., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Bell, W., Buehler, S. A. and Kottayil, A. (2013) Assessment of intercalibration methods for satellite microwave humidity sounders. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118 (10). pp. 4906-4918. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50358

Joshi, M., Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Hope, C. (2013) The use of land-sea warming contrast under climate change to improve impact metrics. Climatic Change, 117 (4). pp. 951-960. ISSN 0165-0009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0715-6

Klingaman, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303, Woolnough, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 and Syktus, J. (2013) On the drivers of inter-annual and decadal rainfall variability in Queensland, Australia. International Journal of Climatology, 33 (10). pp. 2413-2430. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3593

Koehler, A.-K., Challinor, A. J., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Asseng, S. (2013) Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: quantifying limits to predictability. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (3). 034016. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034016

Lavers, D. A., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Villarini, G., Lloyd-Hughes, B., Brayshaw, D. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362 and Wade, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5296-8350 (2013) Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (3). 034010. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034010

Levine, R.C., Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Marathayil, D. and Martin, G. (2013) The role of northern Arabian Sea surface temperature biases in CMIP5 model simulations and future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Climate Dynamics, 41 (1). pp. 155-172. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1656-x

Li, C., Lu, R. and Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 (2013) Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate associated with different ENSO phases by ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts. Climate Dynamics, 43 (7-8). pp. 1829-1845. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-2010-7

Li, C., Notz, D., Tietsche, S. and Marotzke, J. (2013) The transient versus the equilibrium response of sea ice to global warming. Journal of Climate, 26 (15). pp. 5624-5636. ISSN 0894-8755 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00492.1

Liu, C. and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2013) Observed and simulated precipitation responses in wet and dry regions 1850–2100. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (3). 034002. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034002

Liu, X. and Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 (2013) Influence of the Tibetan Plateau uplift on the Asian monsoon-arid environment evolution. Chinese Science Bulletin, 58 (34). pp. 4277-4291. ISSN 1861-9541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-013-5987-8

Maidment, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Grimes, D. I. F., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Greatrex, H., Rojas, O. and Leo, O. (2013) Evaluation of satellite-based and model re-analysis rainfall estimates for Uganda. Meteorological Applications, 20 (3). pp. 308-317. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1283

Marathayil, D., Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Levine, R. C. (2013) Systematic winter sea-surface temperature biases in the northern Arabian Sea in HiGEM and the CMIP3 models. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (1). 014028. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014028

Masato, G., Hoskins, B. J. and Woollings, T. (2013) Wave-breaking characteristics of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking: a two-dimensional approach. Journal of Climate, 26 (13). pp. 4535-4549. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00240.1

Masato, G., Hoskins, B. J. and Woollings, T. (2013) Winter and Summer Northern Hemisphere blocking in CMIP5 models. Journal of Climate, 26 (18). pp. 7044-7059. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00466.1

Menon, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9347-0578, Levermann, A., Schewe, J., Lehmann, J. and Frieler, K. (2013) Consistent increase in Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability across CMIP-5 models. Earth System Dynamics, 4. pp. 287-300. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-287-2013

Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Roucou, P. and Fontaine, B. (2013) Mid-century effects of climate change on African monsoon dynamics using the A1B emission scenario. International Journal of Climatology, 33 (4). pp. 881-896. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3476

Nicol, J. C. and Illingworth, A. J. (2013) The effect of phase-correlated returns and spatial smoothing on the accuracy of radar refractivity retrievals. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 30 (1). pp. 22-39. ISSN 0739-0572 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-12-00077.1

Nicol, J. C., Illingworth, A. J., Darlington, T. and Kitchen, M. (2013) Quantifying errors due to frequency changes and target location uncertainty for radar refractivity retrievals. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 30 (9). pp. 2006-2024. ISSN 0739-0572 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-12-00118.1

Osborne, T., Rose, G. and Wheeler, T. (2013) Variation in the global-scale impacts of climate change on crop productivity due to climate model uncertainty and adaptation. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170. pp. 183-194. ISSN 0168-1923 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.07.006

Osborne, T. M. and Wheeler, T. R. (2013) Evidence for a climate signal in trends of global crop yield variability over the past 50 years. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (2). 024001. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024001

Otto, A., Otto, F. E. L., Boucher, O., Church, J., Hegerl, G., Forster, P. M., Gillett, N. P., Gregory, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644, Johnson, G. C., Knutti, R., Lewis, N., Lohmann, U., Marotzke, J., Myhre, G., Shindell, D., Stevens, B. and Allen, M. R. (2013) Energy budget constraints on climate response. Nature Geoscience, 6 (6). pp. 415-416. ISSN 1752-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1836

Polo, I., Dong, B. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2013) Changes in tropical Atlantic interannual variability from a substantial weakening of the meridional overturning circulation. Climate Dynamics, 41 (9-10). pp. 2765-2784. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1716-x

Polson, D., Hegerl, G. C., Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Balan Sarojini, B. (2013) Have greenhouse gases intensified the contrast between wet and dry regions? Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (17). pp. 4783-4787. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50923

Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Smith, D. (2013) Predictable climate impacts of the decadal changes in the ocean in the 1990s. Journal of Climate, 26 (17). pp. 6329-6339. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00827.1

Sansom, P. G., Stephenson, D. B., Ferro, C. A. T., Zappa, G. and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2013) Simple uncertainty frameworks for selecting weighting schemes and interpreting multimodel ensemble climate change experiments. Journal of Climate, 26 (12). pp. 4017-4037. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00462.1

Smith, D. M., Scaife, A. A., Boer, G. J., Caian, M., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Guemas, V., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Hazeleger, W., Hermanson, L., Ho, C. K., Ishii, M., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Kirtman, B., Lean, J., Matei, D., Merryfield, W. J., Müller, W. A., Pohlmann, H., Rosati, A., Wouters, B. and Wyser, K. (2013) Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions. Climate Dynamics, 41 (11-12). pp. 2875-2888. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1600-0

Sperber, K. R., Annamalai, H., Kang, I.-S., Kitoh, A., Moise, A., Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Wang, B. and Zhou, T. (2013) The Asian summer monsoon: an intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century. Climate Dynamics, 41 (9-10). pp. 2711-2744. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1607-6

Stott, P., Good, P., Jones, G., Gillett, N. and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2013) The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (1). 014024. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014024

Swingedouw, D., Mignot, J., Labetoulle, S., Guilyardi, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2255-8625 and Madec, G. (2013) Initialisation and predictability of the AMOC over the last 50 years in a climate model. Climate Dynamics, 40 (9-10). pp. 2381-2399. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1516-8

Tietsche, S., Notz, D., Jungclaus, J. H. and Marotzke, J. (2013) Assimilation of sea-ice concentration in a global climate model — physical and statistical aspects. Ocean Science, 9 (1). pp. 19-36. ISSN 1812-0792 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-19-2013

Tietsche, S., Notz, D., Jungclaus, J. H. and Marotzke, J. (2013) Predictability of large interannual Arctic sea-ice anomalies. Climate Dynamics, 41 (9-10). pp. 2511-2526. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1698-8

Tobin, I., Bony, S., Holloway, C. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9903-8989, Grandpeix, J.-Y., Seze, G., Coppin, D., Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 and Roca, R. (2013) Does convective aggregation need to be represented in cumulus parameterizations? Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 5 (4). pp. 692-703. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20047

Van Den Hoof, C., Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460, Verhoef, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9498-6696 and Vincke, C. (2013) Improved evaporative flux partitioning and carbon flux in the land surface model JULES: impact on the simulation of land surface processes in temperate Europe. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 181. pp. 108-124. ISSN 0168-1923 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.07.011

Vanniere, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8600-400X, Guilyardi, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2255-8625, Madec, G., Doblas-Reyes, F. J. and Woolnough, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 (2013) Using seasonal hindcasts to understand the origin of the equatorial cold tongue bias in CGCMs and its impact on ENSO. Climate Dynamics, 40 (3-4). pp. 963-981. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1429-6

Vermeulen, S. J., Challinor, A. J., Thornton, P. K., Campbell, B. M., Eriyagama, N., Vervoort, J. M., Kinyangi, J., Jarvis, A., Laderach, P., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Nicklin, K. J., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Smith, D. R. (2013) Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110 (21). pp. 8357-8362. ISSN 0027-8424 doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1219441110

Warren, R., Lowe, J. A., Arnell, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2691-4436, Hope, C., Berry, P., Brown, S., Gambhir, A., Gosling, S. N., Nicholls, R. J., O’Hanley, J., Osborn, T. J., Osborne, T., Price, J., Raper, S. C. B., Rose, G. and Vanderwal, J. (2013) The AVOID programme’s new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation. Climatic Change, 120 (1-2). pp. 55-70. ISSN 0165-0009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0814-4

Wilcox, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 and Charlton-Perez, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8179-6220 (2013) Final warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex in high- and low-top CMIP5 models. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 118 (6). pp. 2535-2546. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50254

Wilcox, L.J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Highwood, E.J. and Dunstone, N.J. (2013) The influence of anthropogenic aerosol on multi-decadal variations of historical global climate. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (2). 024033. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024033

Williams, J.H.T., Smith, R.S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7479-7778, Valdes, P.J., Booth, B.B.B. and Osprey, A. (2013) Optimising the FAMOUS climate model: inclusion of global carbon cycling. Geoscientific Model Development, 6. pp. 141-160. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-141-2013

Williams, P. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9713-9820 (2013) Achieving seventh-order amplitude accuracy in leapfrog integrations. Monthly Weather Review, 141 (9). pp. 3037-3051. ISSN 1520-0493 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00303.1

Williams, P. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9713-9820 and Joshi, M. M. (2013) Intensification of winter transatlantic aviation turbulence in response to climate change. Nature Climate Change, 3. pp. 644-648. ISSN 1758-6798 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1866

Williams, P. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9713-9820, Cullen, M. J.P., Davey, M. K. and Huthnance, J. M. (2013) Mathematics applied to the climate system: outstanding challenges and recent progress. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 371 (1991). 20120518. ISSN 1471-2962 doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2012.0518

Williamson, D. L., Blackburn, M., Nakajima, K., Ohfuchi, W., Takahashi, Y. O., Hayashi, Y.-Y., Nakamura, H., Ishiwatari, M., McGregor, J. L., Borth, H., Wirth, V., Frank, H., Bechtold, P., Wedi, N. P., Tomita, H., Satoh, M., Zhao, M., Held, I. M., Suarez, M. J., Lee, M.-I., Watanabe, M., Kimoto, M., Liu, Y., Wang, Z., Molod, A., Rajendran, K., Kitoh, A. and Stratton, R. (2013) The Aqua-Planet Experiment (APE): Response to changed meridional SST profile. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 91A. pp. 57-89. ISSN 0026-1165 doi: https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2013-A03

Yang, G. Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7450-3477 and Hoskins, B. (2013) ENSO impact on Kelvin waves and associated tropical convection. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 70 (11). pp. 3513-3532. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-081.1

Zahn, M. and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2013) Climate warming–related strengthening of the tropical hydrological cycle. Journal of Climate, 26 (2). pp. 562-574. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00222.1

Zappa, G., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2013) The ability of CMIP5 models to simulate North Atlantic extratropical cyclones. Journal of Climate, 26 (15). pp. 5379-5396. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00501.1

Zappa, G., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Sansom, P. G. and Stephenson, D. B. (2013) A multimodel assessment of future projections of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models. Journal of Climate, 26 (16). pp. 5846-5862. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00573.1

Zelinka, M. D., Klein, S. A., Taylor, K. E., Andrews, T., Webb, M. J., Gregory, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644 and Forster, P. M. (2013) Contributions of different cloud types to feedbacks and rapid adjustments in CMIP5. Journal of Climate, 26 (14). pp. 5007-5027. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00555.1

Zhang, R., Delworth, T. L., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Hodson, D. L. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700, Dixon, K. W., Held, I. M., Kushnir, Y., Marshall, J., Ming, Y., Msadek, R., Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Rosati, A. J., Ting, M. and Vecchi, G. A. (2013) Have aerosols caused the observed Atlantic multidecadal variability? Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 70 (4). pp. 1135-1144. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0331.1

van Oldenborgh, G. J., Doblas Reyes, F. J., Drijfhout, S. S. and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2013) Reliability of regional climate model trends. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (1). 014055. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014055

Book or Report Section

Boyd, E. and Cornforth, R. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556 (2013) Building climate resilience: lessons of early warning in Africa. In: Moser, S. C. and Boykoff, M. T. (eds.) Successful Adaptation to Climate Change: Linking Science and Policy in a Rapidly Changing World. Routledge, pp. 201-219. ISBN 9780415524995

Church, J. A., Clark, P. U., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644, Jevrejeva, S., Levermann, A., Merrifield, M. A., Milne, G. A., Nerem, R. S., Nunn, P. D., Payne, A. J., Pfeffer, W. T., Stammer, D. and Unnikrishnan, A. S. (2013) Sea level change. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, pp. 1137-1216. ISBN 9781107661820

Clifford, D. and Day, J. (2013) Impact of Northern Hemisphere snow on the Arctic Ocean in a climate model. In: Proceedings of Earth Observation and Cryosphere Science : 13-16 November 2012, Frascati, Italy. European Space Agency. ISBN 9789292212766

Cornforth, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556, Boyd, E. and Lamb, P. (2013) Case Study 5: Watching the rains to build resilience in the African Sahel. In: Southgate, R. and Murray, V. (eds.) Using Science for Disaster Risk Reduction Report of the UNISDR Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee. The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, pp. 22-23.

Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Alexander, L. V., Allen, S. K., Bindoff, N. L., Br\'on, F.-M., Church, J. A., Cubasch, U., Emori, S., Forster, P., Friedlingstein, P., Gillett, N., Gregory, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644, Hartmann, D. L., Jansen, E., Kirtman, B., Knutti, R., Kumar, K. K., Lemke, P., Marotzke, J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Meehl, G. A., Mokhov, I., Piao, S., Ramaswamy, V., Randall, D., Rhein, M., Rojas, M., Sabine, C., Shindell, D., Talley, L. D., Vaughan, D. G. and Xie, S.-P. (2013) Technical summary. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 9781107661820

Conference or Workshop Item

Lawrence, B. N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9262-7860, Bennett, V. L., Churchill, J., Juckes, M., Kershaw, P., Pascoe, S., Pepler, S., Priitchard, M. and Stephens, A. (2013) Storing and manipulating environmental big data with JASMIN. In: IEEE Big Data, October 6-9, 2013, San Francisco.

Osprey, A., Riley, G., Manjunathaiah, M. and Lawrence, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9262-7860 (2013) A benchmark-driven modelling approach for evaluating deployment choices on a multicore architecture. In: Proceedings of the International Conference on Parallel & Distributed Processing Techniques & Application (PDPTA'13), July 22-25 2013, Las Vegas.