Article

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Lavers, D. A. and Champion, A. J. (2016) Diagnosing links between atmospheric moisture and extreme daily precipitation over the UK. International Journal of Climatology, 36 (9). pp. 3191-3206. ISSN 1097-0088 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4547

Allen, R. J., Landuyt, W. and Rumbold, S. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8138-4541 (2016) An increase in aerosol burden and radiative effects in a warmer world. Nature Climate Change, 6. pp. 269-274. ISSN 1758-6798 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2827

Anderson, T. R., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Jones, P. D. (2016) CO2, the greenhouse effect and global warming: from the pioneering work of Arrhenius and Callendar to today's Earth System Models. Endeavour, 40 (3). pp. 178-187. ISSN 0160-9327 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.endeavour.2016.07.002

Balan Sarojini, B., Stott, P. A. and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2016) Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation. Nature Climate Change, 6 (7). pp. 669-675. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2976

Barlow, M., Zaitchik, B., Paz, S., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Evans, J. and Hoell, A. (2016) A review of drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia. Journal of Climate, 29 (23). pp. 8547-8574. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00692.1

Behrens, E., Rickard, G., Morgenstern, O., Martin, T., Osprey, A. and Joshi, M. (2016) Southern Ocean deep convection in global climate models: a driver for variability of subpolar gyres and Drake Passage transport on decadal time scales. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121 (6). pp. 3905-3925. ISSN 2169-9291 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011286

Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Greatrex, H., Maidment, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259 and Young, M. (2016) Incorporating satellite data into weather index-based insurance. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97 (10). ES203-ES206. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0148.1

Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Tarnavsky, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3403-0411, Maidment, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Greatrex, H., Mookerjee, A., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 and Brown, M. (2016) The use of remotely sensed rainfall for managing drought risk: a case study of weather index insurance in Zambia. Remote Sensing, 8 (4). 342. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/rs8040342

Bloomfield, H. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5616-1503, Brayshaw, D. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Coker, P. J. and Thornton, H. E. (2016) Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (12). 124025. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124025

Daleu, C. L., Plant, R. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8808-0022, Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514, Sessions, S., Herman, M. J., Sobel, A., Wang, S., Kim, D., Cheng, A., Bellon, G., Peyrille, P., Ferry, F., Siebesma, P. and van Ulft, L. (2016) Intercomparison of methods of coupling between convection and large-scale circulation. 2: comparison over non-uniform surface conditions. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 8 (1). pp. 387-405. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015MS000570

Day, J. J., Tietsche, S., Collins, M., Goessling, H. F., Guemas, V., Guillory, A., Hurlin, W. J., Ishii, M., Keeley, S. P. E., Matei, D., Msadek, R., Sigmond, M., Tatebe, H. and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2016) The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set version 1. Geoscientific Model Development, 9 (6). pp. 2255-2270. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2255-2016

DeMott, C. A., Benedict, J. J., Klingaman, N. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303, Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 and Randall, D. A. (2016) Diagnosing ocean feedbacks to the MJO: SST-modulated surface fluxes and the moist static energy budget. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121 (14). pp. 8350-8373. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025098

Dittus, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9598-6869, Karoly, D. J., Lewis, S. C., Alexander, L. V. and Donat, M. G. (2016) A multiregion model evaluation and attribution study of historical changes in the area affected by temperature and precipitation extremes. Journal of Climate, 29 (23). pp. 8285-8299. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0164.1

Donat, M. G., Alexander, L. V., Herold, N. and Dittus, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9598-6869 (2016) Temperature and precipitation extremes in century-long gridded observations, reanalyses, and atmospheric model simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121 (19). 11,174-11,189. ISSN 2169-897X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025480

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Wilcox, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 (2016) The 2015 European heat wave. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97. S57-S62. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0140.1

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Chen, W., Liu, X., Lu, R. and Sun, Y. (2016) Abrupt summer warming and changes in temperature extremes over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s: drivers and physical processes. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 33 (9). pp. 1005-1023. ISSN 1861-9533 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-016-5247-3

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Highwood, E. J. and Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 (2016) Preferred response of the East Asian summer monsoon to local and non-local anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions. Climate Dynamics, 46 (5). pp. 1733-1751. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2671-5

Dunning, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Black, E. C. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2016) The onset and cessation of seasonal rainfall over Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121 (19). pp. 11405-11424. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025428

Edinburgh, T. and Day, J. J. (2016) Estimating the extent of Antarctic summer sea ice during the Heroic Age of Antarctic Exploration. The Cryosphere, 10 (6). pp. 2721-2730. ISSN 1994-0424 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2721-2016

Eyring, V., Gleckler, P. J., Heinze, C., Stouffer, R. J., Taylor, K. E., Balaji, V., Guilyardi, E., Joussaume, S., Kindermann, S., Lawrence, B. N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9262-7860, Meehl, G. A., Righi, M. and Williams, D. N. (2016) Towards improved and more routine Earth system model evaluation in CMIP. Earth System Dynamics, 7 (4). pp. 813-830. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-813-2016

Fyfe, J. C., Meehl, G. A., England, M. H., Mann, M. E., Santer, B. D., Flato, G. M., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Gillett, N. P., Xie, S.-P., Kosaka, Y. and Swart, N. C. (2016) Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown. Nature Climate Change, 6 (3). pp. 224-228. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2938

Goessling, H. F., Jung, T., Klebe, S., Baeseman, J., Bauer, P., Chen, P., Chevallier, M., Dole, R., Gordon, N., Ruti, P., Bradley, A., Bromwich, D. H., Casati, B., Chechin, D., Day, J. J., Massonnet, F., Mills, B., Renfrew, I., Smith, G. and Tatusko, R. (2016) Paving the way for the year of polar prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97 (4). ES85-ES88. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00270.1

Goessling, H. F., Tietsche, S., Day, J. J., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Jung, T. (2016) Predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (4). pp. 1642-1650. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067232

Gonzalez, P. L. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0154-0087 and Goddard, L. (2016) Long-lead ENSO predictability from CMIP5 decadal hindcasts. Climate Dynamics, 46 (9). pp. 3127-3147. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2757-0

Good, P., Andrews, T., Chadwick, R., Dufresne, J.-L., Gregory, J. M., Lowe, J. A., Schaller, N. and Shiogama, H. (2016) nonlinMIP contribution to CMIP6: model intercomparison project for non-linear mechanisms: physical basis, experimental design and analysis principles (v1.0). Geoscientific Model Development, 9 (11). pp. 4019-4028. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4019-2016

Goulart, E. V., Coceal, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0705-6755, Branford, S., Thomas, T. G. and Belcher, S. E. (2016) Spatial and temporal variability of the concentration field from localized releases in a regular building array. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 159 (2). pp. 241-257. ISSN 1573-1472 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-016-0126-0

Gregory, J. M. and Andrews, T. (2016) Variation in climate sensitivity and feedback parameters during the historical period. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (8). pp. 3911-3920. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068406

Gregory, J. M., Andrews, T., Good, P., Mauritsen, T. and Forster, P. M. (2016) Small global-mean cooling due to volcanic radiative forcing. Climate Dynamics, 47 (12). pp. 3979-3991. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3055-1

Gregory, J. M., Bouttes, N., Griffies, S. M., Haak, H., Hurlin, W. J., Jungclaus, J., Kelley, M., Lee, W. G., Marshall, J., Romanou, A., Saenko, O. A., Stammer, D. and Winton, M. (2016) The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigation of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO₂ forcing. Geoscientific Model Development, 9 (11). pp. 3993-4017. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3993-2016

Griffies, S. M., Danabasoglu, G., Durack, P. J., Adcroft, A. J., Balaji, V., W., C., Chassignet, E. P., Curchitser, E., Deshayes, J., Drange, H., Fox-Kemper, B., Gleckler, P. J., Gregory, J. M., Haak, H., Hallberg, R. W., Heimbach, P., Hewitt, H. T., Holland, D. M., Ilyina, T., Jungclaus, J. H., Komuro, Y., Krasting, J. P., Large, W. J., Marsland, S. J., Masina, S., McDougall, T. J., Nurser, A. J. G., Orr, J. C., Pirani, A., Qiao, F., Stouffer, R. J., Taylor, K. E., Treguier, A. M., Tsujino, H., Uotila, P., Valdivieso, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1738-7016, Winton, M. and Yeager, S. G. (2016) OMIP contribution to CMIP6: experimental and diagnostic protocol for the physical component of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project. Geoscientific Model Development, 9 (9). pp. 3231-3296. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016

Guemas, V., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Chevallier, M., Day, J. J., Déqué, M., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Fučkar, N., Germe, A., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Keeley, S., Koenigk, T., Salas y Mélia, D. and Tietsche, S. (2016) A review on Arctic sea ice predictability and prediction on seasonal-to-decadal timescales. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (695). pp. 546-561. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2401

Guo, L., Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Highwood, E. J. (2016) Local and remote impacts of aerosol species on Indian summer monsoon rainfall in a GCM. Journal of Climate, 29 (19). pp. 6937-6955. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0728.1

Haarsma, R. J., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Senior, C. A., Bellucci, A., Bao, Q., Chang, P., Corti, S., Fučkar, N. S., Guemas, V., von Hardenberg, J., Hazeleger, W., Kodama, C., Koenigk, T., Leung, L. R., Lu, J., Luo, J.-J., Mao, J., Mizielinski, M. S., Mizuta, R., Nobre, P., Satoh, M., Scoccimarro, E., Semmler, T., Small, J. and von Storch, J.-S. (2016) High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development, 9 (11). pp. 4185-4208. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016

Harrington, L. J., Frame, D. J., Fischer, E. M., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Joshi, M. and Jones, C. D. (2016) Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (5). 055007. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007

Harrison, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0693-347X, Marlton, G., Williams, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9713-9820 and Nicoll, K. (2016) Coordinated weather balloon solar radiation measurements during a solar eclipse. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 374 (2077). 20150221. ISSN 1364-503X doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2015.0221 (themed issue: Atmospheric effects of solar eclipses stimulated by the 2015 UK eclipse)

Harvey, B. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 and Ambaum, M. H. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6824-8083 (2016) Rossby wave propagation on potential vorticity fronts with finite width. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 794. pp. 775-797. ISSN 0022-1120 doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2016.180

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2016) Connecting climate model projections of global temperature change with the real world. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97 (6). pp. 963-980. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00154.1

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Smith, R. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7479-7778, Gregory, J. M. and Stainforth, D. A. (2016) Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections. Climate Dynamics, 46 (11). pp. 3807-3819. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2806-8

Hill, P. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9745-2120, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Chiu, J. C. and Stein, T. H. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9215-5397 (2016) A multi-satellite climatology of clouds, radiation and precipitation in southern West Africa and comparison to climate models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121 (18). 10,857-10,879. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025246

Holloway, C. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9903-8989 and Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 (2016) The sensitivity of convective aggregation to diabatic processes in idealized radiative-convective equilibrium simulations. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 8 (1). pp. 166-195. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015MS000511

Holmes, C. R., Woollings, T., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and de Vries, H. (2016) Robust future changes in temperature variability under greenhouse gas forcing and the relationship with thermal advection. Journal of Climate, 29 (6). pp. 2221-2236. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00735.1

Hoskins, B. J. and Yang, G.-Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7450-3477 (2016) The longitudinal variation of equatorial waves due to propagation on a varying zonal flow. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 73 (2). pp. 605-620. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0167.1

Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755, Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Parker, D. E. (2016) The spatiotemporal structure of precipitation in Indian monsoon depressions. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (701). pp. 3195-3210. ISSN 0035-9009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2901

Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755, Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Inness, P. M., Parker, D. E. and Levine, R. C. (2016) On the structure and dynamics of Indian monsoon depressions. Monthly Weather Review, 144 (9). pp. 3391-3416. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0138.1

Johnson, S. J., Levine, R. C., Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Martin, G. M., Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514, Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Mizielinski, M. S., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Demory, M.-E. and Strachan, J. (2016) The resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon and Indo-Pacific in a global 0.35◦ AGCM. Climate Dynamics, 46 (3-4). pp. 807-831. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2614-1

Jung, T., Gordon, N. D., Bauer, P., Bromwich, D. H., Chevallier, M., Day, J. J., Dawson, J., Doblas-Reyes, F., Fairall, C., Goessling, H. F., Holland, M., Inoue, J., Iversen, T., Klebe, S., Lemke, P., Losch, M., Makshtas, A., Mills, B., Nurmi, P., Perovich, D., Reid, P., Renfrew, I. A., Smith, G., Svensson, G., Tolstykh, M. and Yang, Q. (2016) Advancing polar prediction capabilities on daily to seasonal time scales. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97 (9). pp. 1631-1647. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00246.1

Kennedy, D., Parker, T., Woollings, T., Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181 and Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X (2016) The response of high-impact blocking weather systems to climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (13). pp. 7250-7258. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069725

Kim, J.-H., Chan, W. N., Sridhar, B., Sharman, R. D., Williams, P. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9713-9820 and Strahan, M. (2016) Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on transatlantic flight routes and clear-air turbulence. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 55 (3). pp. 763-771. ISSN 1558-8432 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0261.1

Kumar, S., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Zwiers, F., Lawrence, D. M. and Dirmeyer, P. A. (2016) Revisiting trends in wetness and dryness in the presence of internal climate variability and water limitations over land. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (24). 10,867-10,875. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066858

Leroux, S., Bellon, G., Roehrig, R., Caian, M., Klingaman, N. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303, Lafore, J.-P., Musat, I., Rio, C. and Tyteca, S. (2016) Inter-model comparison of sub-seasonal tropical variability in aquaplanet experimets: effect of a warm pool. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 8 (4). pp. 1526-1551. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016MS000683

Li, C., Lu, R. and Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 (2016) Interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the western North Pacific summer climate around the late 1970s and early 1990s. Climate Dynamics, 46 (7-8). pp. 2435-2448. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2711-1

Loeb, N. G., Wang, H., Cheng, A., Kato, S., Fasullo, J. T., Xu, K.-M. and Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2016) Observational constraints on atmospheric and oceanic cross-equatorial heat transports: revisiting the precipitation asymmetry problem in climate models. Climate Dynamics, 46 (9-10). pp. 3239-3257. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2766-z

Marlton, G. J., Williams, P. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9713-9820 and Nicoll, K. A. (2016) On the detection and attribution of gravity waves generated by the 20 March 2015 solar eclipse. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 374 (2077). 20150222. ISSN 1364-503X doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2015.0222 (themed issue: Atmospheric effects of solar eclipses stimulated by the 2015 UK eclipse)

Masato, G., Woollings, T., Williams, K. D., Hoskins, B. J. and Lee, R. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1946-5559 (2016) A regime analysis of Atlantic winter jet variability applied to evaluate HadGEM3-GC2. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (701). pp. 3162-3170. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2897

Melia, N., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374 and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2016) Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (18). pp. 9720-9728. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069315

Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Biasutti, M. and Roucou, P. (2016) On the projected increase of Sahel rainfall during the late rainy season. International Journal of Climatology, 36 (13). pp. 4373-4383. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4638

Nowicki, S. M. J., Payne, A., Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W., Gregory, J., Abe-Ouchi, A. and Shepherd, A. (2016) Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development, 9 (12). pp. 4521-4545. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016

Parker, D. J., Willetts, P., Birch, C., Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Marsham, J. H., Taylor, C. M., Kolusu, S. and Martin, G. M. (2016) The interaction of moist convection and mid-level dry air in the advance of the onset of the Indian monsoon. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (699). pp. 2256-2272. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2815

Parker, H. R., Cornforth, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556, Suarez, P., Allen, M., Boyd, E., James, R., Jones, R., Otto, F. and Walton, P. (2016) Using a game to engage stakeholders in extreme event attribution science. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 7 (4). pp. 353-365. ISSN 2095-0055 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-016-0105-6

Pookkandy, B., Dommenget, D., Klingaman, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303, Wales, S., Chung, C., Frauen, C. and Wolff, H. (2016) The role of local atmospheric forcing on the modulation of the ocean mixed layer depth in reanalysis and a coupled single column ocean model. Climate Dynamics, 47 (9-10). pp. 2991-3010. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3009-7

Puy, M., Vialard, J., Lengaigne, M. and Guilyardi, E. (2016) Modulation of equatorial Pacific westerly/easterly wind events by the Madden-Julian oscillation and convectively-coupled Rossby waves. Climate Dynamics, 46 (7-8). pp. 2155-2178. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2695-x

Quennehen, B., Raut, J.-C., Law, K. S., Daskalakis, N., Ancellet, G., Clerbaux, C., Kim, S.-W., Lund, M. T., Myhre, G., Olivié, D. J. L., Safieddine, S., Skeie, R. B., Thomas, T. L., Tsyro, S., Bazureau, A., Bellouin, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2109-9559, Hu, M., Kanakidou, M., Klimont, Z., Kupiainen, K., Myriokefalitakis, S., Quaas, J., Rumbold, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8138-4541, Schulz, M., Cherian, R., Shimizu, A., Wang, J., Yoon, S.-C. and Zhu, T. (2016) Multi-model evaluation of short-lived pollutant distributions over East Asia during summer 2008. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16 (17). pp. 10765-10792. ISSN 1680-7324 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10765-2016

Richardson, M., Cowtan, K., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Stolpe, M. B. (2016) Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth. Nature Climate Change, 6 (10). pp. 931-935. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3066

Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Ortega, P. and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2016) A reversal of climatic trends in the North Atlantic since 2005. Nature Geoscience, 9 (7). pp. 513-517. ISSN 1752-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2727

Rugenstein, M. A. A., Gregory, J. M., Schaller, N., Sedláček, J. and Knutti, R. (2016) Multi-annual ocean-atmosphere adjustments to radiative forcing. Journal of Climate, 29 (15). pp. 5643-5659. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0312.1

Shaw, J. and Weller, H. (2016) Comparison of terrain following and cut cell grids using a non-hydrostatic model. Monthly Weather Review, 144 (6). pp. 2085-2099. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0226.1

Steptoe, H., Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 and Highwood, E. J. (2016) Is there a robust effect of anthropogenic aerosols on the Southern Annular Mode? Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121 (17). 10,029-10,042. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024218

Tietsche, S., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Day, J. J. (2016) Atmospheric and oceanic contributions to irreducible forecast uncertainty of Arctic surface climate. Journal of Climate, 29 (1). pp. 331-346. ISSN 0894-8755 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0421.1

Tous, M., Zappa, G., Romero, R., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Vidale, P. L. (2016) Projected changes in medicanes in the HadGEM3 N512 high-resolution global climate model. Climate Dynamics, 47 (5). pp. 1913-1924. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2941-2

Vellinga, M., Roberts, M., Vidale, P. L., Mizielinski, M. S., Demory, M.-E., Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Strachan, J. and Bain, C. (2016) Sahel decadal rainfall variability and the role of model horizontal resolution. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (1). pp. 326-333. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066690

Voigt, A., Biasutti, M., Scheff, J., Bader, J., Bordoni, S., Codron, F., Dixon, R. D., Jonas, J., Kang, S. M., Klingaman, N. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303, Leung, R., Lu, J., Mapes, B., Maroon, E. A., McDermid, S., Park, J.-y., Roehrig, R., Rose, B. E. J., Russell, G. L., Seo, J., Toniazzo, T., Wei, H.-H., Yoshimori, M. and Zepptello, L. R. V. (2016) The tropical rain belts with an annual cycle and a continent model intercomparison project: TRACMIP. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 8 (4). pp. 1868-1891. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016MS000748

Watson-Parris, D., Schutgens, N., Cook, N., Kipling, Z., Kershaw, P., Gryspeerdt, E., Lawrence, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9262-7860 and Stier, P. (2016) Community Intercomparison Suite (CIS) v1.4.0: a tool for intercomparing models and observations. Geoscientific Model Development, 9 (9). pp. 3093-3110. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3093-2016

Weller, H., Browne, P., Budd, C. and Cullen, M. (2016) Mesh adaptation on the sphere using optimal transport and the numerical solution of a Monge-Ampère type equation. Journal of Computational Physics, 308. pp. 102-123. ISSN 0021-9991 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2015.12.018

Williams, P. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9713-9820, Howe, N. J., Gregory, J. M., Smith, R. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7479-7778 and Joshi, M. M. (2016) Improved climate simulations through a stochastic parameterization of ocean eddies. Journal of Climate, 29 (24). pp. 8763-8781. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0746.1

Yang, G.-Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7450-3477 and Hoskins, B. J. (2016) ENSO related variation of equatorial MRG and Rossby waves and forcing from higher latitudes. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (699). pp. 2488-2504. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2842

Zhang, L., Wu, P., Zhou, T., Roberts, M. J. and Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856 (2016) Added value of high resolution models in simulating global precipitation characteristics. Atmospheric Science Letters, 17 (12). pp. 646-657. ISSN 1530-261X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.715

Zhang, R., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Danabasoglu, G., Delworth, T. L., Kim, W. M., Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X and Yeager, S. G. (2016) Comment on “The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation”. Science, 352 (6293). p. 1527. ISSN 1095-9203 doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf1660

Zhang, W., Li, H., Stuecker, M. F., Jin, F.-F. and Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2016) A new understanding of El Niño's impact over East Asia: dominance of the ENSO combination mode. Journal of Climate, 29 (12). pp. 4347-4359. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0104.1

Zhou, T., Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Kinter, J. L., Wang, B., Qian, Y., Chen, X., Wu, B., Wang, B., Liu, B., Zou, L. and Bian, H. (2016) GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project. Geoscientific Model Development, 9 (10). pp. 3589-3604. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3589-2016

Zveryaev, I. I., Zahn, M. and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2016) Interannual variability in the summertime hydrological cycle over European regions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121 (10). pp. 5381-5394. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024425

de Leeuw, J., Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 and Blackburn, M. (2016) Variability and trends in England and Wales precipitation. International Journal of Climatology, 36 (8). pp. 2823-2836. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4521

Book or Report Section

Jones, M., Blower, J., Lawrence, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9262-7860 and Osprey, A. (2016) Investigating read performance of Python and NetCDF when using HPC parallel filesystems. In: Taufer, M., Mohr, B. and Kunkel, J. M. (eds.) High Performance Computing. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 9945. Springer International Publishing, Cham, Switzerland, pp. 153-168. ISBN 9783319460789 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-46079-6_12

Williams, P. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9713-9820 and Joshi, M. M. (2016) Clear-air turbulence in a changing climate. In: Sharman, R. and Lane, T. (eds.) Aviation turbulence: processes, detection, prediction. Springer, pp. 465-480. ISBN 9783319236292 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-23630-8_23

Report

Hirons, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576 and Klingaman, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303, (2016) El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook February 2016. Report. Evidence on Demand doi: https://doi.org/10.12774/eod_cr.february2016.hironsletal3

Hirons, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576 and Klingaman, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303, (2016) El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook January 2016. Report. Evidence on Demand doi: https://doi.org/10.12774/eod_cr.december2015.hironsletal2

Hirons, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576 and Klingaman, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303, (2016) El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook March 2016. Report. Evidence on Demand, UK. doi: https://doi.org/10.12774/eod_cr.march2016.hironsletal3

Hirons, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576 and Klingaman, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303, (2016) La Niña 2016/2017: historical impact analysis. Report. Evidence on Demand doi: https://doi.org/10.12774/eod_cr.february2016.hironsetal4