Items where Division is "National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO)"

Reading Faculties, Schools and Departments (60165)
- Science (19406)
  - School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences (11183)
    - National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO) (476)

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Number of items at this level: 476.

2025

Allan, D. and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2025) Influence of meltwater from Labrador Sea ice and icebergs transported via the Flemish cap on the long-term North Atlantic cold anomaly. Atmosphere-Ocean. ISSN 1480-9214 doi: 10.1080/07055900.2025.2478832

Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Merchant, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850 (2025) Reconciling Earth’s growing energy imbalance with ocean warming. Environmental Research Letters. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/adb448 (In Press)

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2025) Solar dimming by increased moisture in a warmer world. National Science Review, 12 (3). nwaf038. ISSN 2053-714X doi: 10.1093/nsr/nwaf038

Bell, Z., Dance, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338 and Waller, J. (2025) The ensemble transform Schmidt-Kalman filter: a novel method to compensate for observation uncertainty due to unresolved scales. Atmospheric Science Letters. ISSN 1530-261X doi: 10.1002/ASL.1296 (In Press)

Bhatt, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7061-1817, Debreu, L. and Vidard, A. (2025) Introducing time parallelization within data assimilation. SIAM Journal on Scientific Computing, 47 (2). B533-B557. ISSN 1095-7197 doi: 10.1137/24M1651903

Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338 and Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 (2025) Improving weather forecasts through advanced use of observations. In: Aston, P. J. (ed.) More UK Success Stories in Industrial Mathematics. Mathematics in Industry (42). Springer, Cham, pp. 9-15. ISBN 9783031486821 doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-48683-8_2

Douglas, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3404-8761, Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 and Bannister, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6846-8297 (2025) Exploring a hybrid ensemble–variational data assimilation technique (4DEnVar) with a simple ecosystem carbon model. Environmental Modelling and Software, 186. 106361. ISSN 1873-6726 doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106361

Hu, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4305-3658, Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Fowler, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3650-3948, Simonin, D., Waller, J., Auligne, T., Healy, S., Hotta, D., Löhnert, U., Miyoshi, T., Privé, N. C., Stiller, O., Wang, X. and Weissmann, M. (2025) On methods for assessment of the value of observations in convection-permitting data assimilation and numerical weather forecasting. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.4933

Kent, E. C., Chan, D., Cornes, R. C., Neilsen-Englyst, P., Kajtar, J. B., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Thorne, P. W., Wallis, E. J. and Woolway, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0498-7968 (2025) Global surface temperatures. In: Letcher, T. and Fthenakis, V. M. (eds.) Energy and Climate Change: Our New Future. Academic Press, London, UK, pp. 85-120. ISBN 9780443219276

Lambert, F. H., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Behrangi, A., Byrne, M. P., Ceppi, P., Chadwick, R., Durack, P. J., Fosser, G., Fowler, H. J., Greve, P., Lee, T., Mutton, H., O'Gorman, P. A., Osborne, J. M., Pendergrass, A. G., Reager, J. T., Stier, P., Swann, A. L. S., Todd, A., Vicente-Serrano, S. M. and Stephens, G. L. (2025) Changes in the regional water cycle and their impact on societies. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 16 (2). e70005. ISSN 1757-7799 doi: 10.1002/wcc.70005

Liu, M., Guan, L., Liu, F., Sheng, Z., Li, Z. and Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850 (2025) Dynamic optimal estimation with atmospheric correction smoothing for sea surface skin temperature retrieval from infrared satellite imagery. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 63. 5000417. ISSN 1558-0644 doi: 10.1109/TGRS.2024.3519214

Mason, D. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081 and Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338 (2025) Improved urban flood detection in deeper floods using synthetic aperture radar double-scattering intensity and interferometric coherence. Journal of Applied Remote Sensing, 19 (2). 021007. ISSN 1931-3195 doi: 10.1117/1.JRS.19.021007

Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Embury, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1661-7828 (2025) Quantifying the acceleration of multidecadal global sea surface warming driven by Earth’s energy imbalance. Environmental Research Letters, 20 (2). 024037. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/adaa8a

Stretton, M. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1444-5735, Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Wilkes, P. and Disney, M. (2025) The influence of 3D canopy structure on modelled photosynthesis. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 366. 110437. ISSN 1873-2240 doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110437

2024

Allan, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2069-0315 and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2024) Odden ice melt linked to Labrador Sea ice expansions and the Great Salinity Anomalies of 1970–1995. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 129 (4). e2023JC019988. ISSN 2169-9291 doi: 10.1029/2023JC019988

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2024) Droughts are blowing in the wind. Nature Water, 2 (3). pp. 223-224. ISSN 2731-6084 doi: 10.1038/s44221-024-00209-6

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Douville, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6074-6467 (2024) An even drier future for the arid lands. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 121 (2). e2320840121. ISSN 0027-8424 doi: 10.1073/pnas.2320840121

Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Maidment, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Rees, E. and Nderitu, E. (2024) A new drought model for disaster risk management in the Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan provinces of Pakistan. Frontiers in Climate, 6. 1332233. ISSN 2624-9553 doi: 10.3389/fclim.2024.1332233

Bulgin, C. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4368-7386, Maidment, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Ghent, D. and Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850 (2024) Stability of cloud detection methods for Land Surface Temperature (LST) Climate Data Records (CDRs). Remote Sensing of Environment, 315. 114440. ISSN 1879-0704 doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114440

Cartis, C., Kaouri, M. H., Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568 and Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 (2024) Convergent least-squares optimisation methods for variational data assimilation. Optimization, 73 (11). pp. 3451-3485. ISSN 1029-4945 doi: 10.1080/02331934.2024.2390119

Chen, Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2319-6937, Smith, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4570-4127, Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600, Pasmans, I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5076-5421, Bertino, L., Bocquet, M., Sebastian Finn, T., Rampal, P. and Dansereau, V. (2024) Multivariate state and parameter estimation with data assimilation applied to sea-ice models using a Maxwell elasto-brittle rheology. The Cryosphere, 18 (5). pp. 2381-2406. ISSN 1994-0424 doi: 10.5194/tc-18-2381-2024

Douville, H., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Arias, P. A. and Fisher, R. A. (2024) Call for caution regarding the efficacy of large-scale afforestation and its hydrological effects. Science of the Total Environment, 950. 175299. ISSN 1879-1026 doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175299

Embury, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1661-7828, Merchant, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Good, S. A., Rayner, N. A., Høyer, J. L., Atkinson, C., Block, T., Alerskans, E., Pearson, K. J., Worsfold, M., McCarroll, N. and Donlon, C. (2024) Satellite-based time-series of sea-surface temperature since 1980 for climate applications. Scientific Data, 11 (1). 326. ISSN 2052-4463 doi: 10.1038/s41597-024-03147-w

Fowler, A. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3650-3948 (2024) On the robustness of methods to account for background bias in data assimilation to uncertainties in the bias estimates. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.4790

González-Haro, C., Isern-Fontanet, J., Turiel, A., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850 and Cornillon, P. (2024) Structural and dynamical quality assessment of gap-filled sea surface temperature products. Earth and Space Science, 11 (10). e2023EA003088. ISSN 2333-5084 doi: 10.1029/2023EA003088

Govekar, P., Griffin, C., Embury, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1661-7828, Mittaz, J., Beggs, H. M. and Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850 (2024) Himawari-8 sea surface temperature products from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Remote Sensing, 16 (18). 3381. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: 10.3390/rs16183381

Hall, T. W., Blunn, L., Grimmond, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3166-9415, McCarroll, N., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Morrison, W., Shonk, J. K. P., Lean, H. and Best, M. (2024) Utility of thermal remote sensing for evaluation of a high-resolution weather model in a city. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 150 (760). pp. 1771-1790. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.4669

Harris, B. L., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Taylor, C. M. and Harris, P. P. (2024) Contrasting responses of vegetation productivity to intraseasonal rainfall in Earth system models. Earth System Dynamics, 15 (4). pp. 1019-1035. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: 10.5194/esd-15-1019-2024

John, V. O., Shi, L., Chung, E. -S., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Buehler, S. A. and Soden, B. J. (2024) Upper tropospheric humidity [in “State of the Climate in 2023”]. In: Blunden, J. and Boyer, T. (eds.) State of the Climate in 2023. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 105 (8). American Meteorological Society, S59-S60. doi: 10.1175/2024BAMSStateoftheClimate.1

Kuhlbrodt, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2328-6729, Swaminathan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5853-2673, Ceppi, P. and Wilder, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1108-4655 (2024) A glimpse into the future: the 2023 ocean temperature and sea-ice extremes in the context of longer-term climate change. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 105 (3). E474-E485. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0209.1

Lavender, S. L., Stirling, A. J., Whitall, M., Stratton, R. A., Daleu, C. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2075-4902, Plant, R. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8808-0022, Lock, A. and Gu, J.-F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7752-4553 (2024) The use of idealised experiments in testing a new convective parameterization: performance of CoMorph-A. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 150 (760). pp. 1581-1600. ISSN 1477-870X

Lee, J. C. K., Amezcua, J. and Bannister, R. N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6846-8297 (2024) Variable-dependent and selective multivariate localization for ensemble-variational data assimilation in the tropics. Monthly Weather Review, 152 (4). pp. 1097-1118. ISSN 1520-0493 doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-23-0201.1

Liu, C., Jin, L., Cao, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6957-545X, Su, Q., Cheng, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9854-0392, Liao, X., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Qiao, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5829-4780, Song, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8098-5529, Mayer, M., Winkelbauer, S., Li, J., Xu, H., Yang, K., Pan, Y. and Liang, Z. (2024) Assessment of the global ocean heat content and North Atlantic heat transport over 1993–2020. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7. 314. ISSN 2397-3722 doi: 10.1038/s41612-024-00860-6

Pasmans, I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5076-5421, Chen, Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2319-6937, Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600 and Jones, C. K. R. T. (2024) Tailoring data assimilation to discontinuous Galerkin models. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 0035-9009 doi: 10.1002/qj.4737

Raanes, P. N., Chen, Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2319-6937 and Grudzien, C. (2024) DAPPER: Data Assimilation with Python: a Package for Experimental Research. Journal of Open Source Software, 9 (94). 5150. ISSN 2475-9066 doi: 10.21105/joss.05150

Rodell, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0106-7437, Barnoud, A., Robertson, F. R., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Bellas-Manley, A., Bosilovich, M. G., Chambers, D., Landerer, F., Loomis, B., Nerem, R. S., O’Neill, M. M., Wiese, D. and Seneviratne, S. I. (2024) An abrupt decline in global terrestrial water storage and its relationship with sea level change. Surveys in Geophysics. ISSN 1573-0956 doi: 10.1007/s10712-024-09860-w

Satoh, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2312-0051, Van Leeuwen, P. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2325-5340 and Nakano, S.'y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0772-4610 (2024) Online state and time‐varying parameter estimation using the implicit equal‐weights particle filter. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.4698

Skákala, J., Ford, D., Fowler, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3650-3948, Lea, D., Martin, M. J. and Ciavatta, S. (2024) How uncertain and observable are marine ecosystem indicators in shelf seas? Progress in Oceanography, 224. 103249. ISSN 1873-4472 doi: 10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103249

Swaminathan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5853-2673, Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 and Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2024) A machine learning framework to evaluate vegetation modeling in Earth system models. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 16 (7). e2023MS004097. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: 10.1029/2023MS004097

Swaminathan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5853-2673, Schewe, J., Walton, J., Zimmermann, K., Jones, C., Betts, R., Burton, C., Jones, C., Mengel, M., Reyer, C., Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Weigel, K. (2024) Regional impacts poorly constrained by climate sensitivity. Earth's Future, 12 (12). e2024EF004901. ISSN 2328-4277 doi: 10.1029/2024EF004901

Trancoso, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9697-7005, Syktus, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1782-3073, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Croke, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1707-0377, Hoegh-Guldberg, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7510-6713 and Chadwick, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6767-5414 (2024) Significantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world’s population. Nature Communications, 15 (1). 483. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-44513-3

Vandaele, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0693-8011, Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338 and Ojha, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9256-1192 (2024) Deep learning for automated trash screen blockage detection using cameras: actionable information for flood risk management. Journal of Hydroinformatics, 26 (4). pp. 889-903. ISSN 1465-1734 doi: 10.2166/hydro.2024.013

Wright, A., Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568, Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220, Lea, D. J. and Martin, M. J. (2024) Assessment of short-range forecast error atmosphere-ocean cross-correlations from the Met Office coupled numerical weather prediction system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 150 (762). pp. 2783-2797. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.4735

2023

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2023) Amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation. Environmental Research Letters, 18 (9). 094004. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/acea36

Arias, P. A., Rendón, M. L., Martínez, J. A. and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2023) Changes in atmospheric moisture transport over tropical South America: an analysis under a climate change scenario. Climate Dynamics, 61 (11-12). pp. 4949-4969. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-023-06833-4

Bulgin, C. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4368-7386, Faulkner, A., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Corlett, G. K., McCarroll, N., Embury, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1661-7828, Polehampton, E. and McGurk, C. (2023) Improving the combined use of reflectance and thermal channels for ocean and coastal cloud detection for the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR). Remote Sensing of Environment, 290. 113531. ISSN 0034-4257 doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2023.113531

Bulgin, C. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4368-7386, Mecking, J. V., Harvey, B. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Jevrejeva, S., McCarroll, N. F., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850 and Sinha, B. (2023) Dynamic sea-level changes and potential implications for storm surges in the UK: a storylines perspective. Environmental Research Letters, 18 (4). 044033. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/acc6df

Cheng, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7304-2442, Chen, Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2319-6937, Aydoğdu, A., Bertino, L., Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600, Rampal, P. and Jones, C. K. R. T. (2023) Arctic sea ice data assimilation combining an ensemble Kalman filter with a novel Lagrangian sea ice model for the winter 2019–2020. The Cryosphere, 17 (4). pp. 1735-1754. ISSN 1994-0424 doi: 10.5194/tc-17-1735-2023

Dong, B., Bannister, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6846-8297, Chen, Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2319-6937, Fowler, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3650-3948 and Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374 (2023) Simplified Kalman smoother and ensemble Kalman smoother for improving reanalyses. Geoscientific Model Development, 16. pp. 4233-4247. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: 10.5194/gmd-16-4233-2023

Felton, M., Jones, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3464-5424, Tranter, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0702-6505, Clark, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0412-8824, Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 and Lukac, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8535-6334 (2023) Farmers’ attitudes towards, and intentions to adopt, agroforestry on farms in lowland South-East and East England. Land Use Policy, 131. 106668. ISSN 0264-8377 doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2023.106668

Finn, T. S., Durand, C., Farchi, A., Bocquet, M., Chen, Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2319-6937, Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600 and Dansereau, V. (2023) Deep learning subgrid-scale parametrisations for short-term forecasting of sea-ice dynamics with a Maxwell elasto-brittle rheology. The Cryosphere, 17 (7). pp. 2965-2991. ISSN 1994-0424 doi: 10.5194/tc-17-2965-2023

Fowler, A. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3650-3948, Skákala, J. and Ford, D. (2023) Validating and improving the uncertainty assumptions for the assimilation of ocean colour derived chlorophyll a into a marine biogeochemistry model of the North-West European Shelf Seas. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 149 (750). pp. 300-324. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.4408

Hooker, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5135-3952, Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Mason, D. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Bevington, J. and Shelton, K. (2023) Assessing the spatial spread–skill of ensemble flood maps with remote-sensing observations. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 23 (8). pp. 2769-2785. ISSN 1684-9981 doi: 10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023

Hooker, H., Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Mason, D. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Bevington, J. and Shelton, K. (2023) A multi-system comparison of forecast flooding extent using a scale-selective approach. Hydrology Research, 54 (10). pp. 1115-1133. ISSN 2224-7955 doi: 10.2166/nh.2023.025

Hu, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4305-3658, Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Bannister, R. N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6846-8297, Chipilski, H. G., Guillet, O., Macpherson, B., Weissmann, M. and Yussouf, N. (2023) Progress, challenges and future steps in data assimilation for convection-permitting numerical weather prediction: report on the virtual meeting held on 10 and 12 November 2021. Atmospheric Science Letters, 24 (1). e1130. ISSN 1530-261X doi: 10.1002/asl.1130

John, V. O., Shi, L., Chung, E. S., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Buehler, S. A. and Soden, B. J., Blunden, J., Boyer, T. and Bartow-Gillies, E., eds. (2023) Upper tropospheric humidity. State of the Climate in 2022. 104 (9). Report. American Meteorological Society, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. doi: 10.1175/2023BAMSStateoftheClimate.1 (S55-S56)

Mason, D. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338 and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2023) Towards improved urban flood detection using Sentinel-1: dependence of the ratio of post- to pre-flood double scattering cross-sections on building orientation. Journal of Applied Remote Sensing, 17 (1). 016507. ISSN 1931-3195 doi: 10.1117/1.JRS.17.016507

Matthews, G., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Hansford, E., Mazzetti, C. and Prudhomme, C. (2023) Co-design and co-production of flood forecast products: summary of a hybrid workshop. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 104 (5). E1058-E1066. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0061.1

Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Embury, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1661-7828, Gentemann, C., Kennedy, J. J., Kent, E. C., Minnett, P. J. and While, J. (2023) Sea surface temperature validation and blended analysis. In: Nalli, N. R. (ed.) Field Measurements for Passive Environmental Remote Sensing. Elsevier, Oxford, pp. 337-350, 436 pages. ISBN 9780128239537 doi: 10.1016/B978-0-12-823953-7.00019-8

Minasny, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1182-2371, Adetsu, D. V., Aitkenhead, M., Artz, R. R. E., Baggaley, N., Barthelmes, A., Beucher, A., Caron, J., Conchedda, G., Connolly, J., Deragon, R., Evans, C., Fadnes, K., Fiantis, D., Gagkas, Z., Gilet, L., Gimona, A., Glatzel, S., Greve, M. H., Habib, W., Hergoualc’h, K., Hermansen, C., Kidd, D. B., Koganti, T., Kopansky, D., Large, D. J., Larmola, T., Lilly, A., Liu, H., Marcus, M., Middleton, M., Morrison, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8075-0316, Petersen, R. J., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Rochefort, L., Rudiyanto, ., Toca, L., Tubiello, F. N., Weber, P. L., Weldon, S., Widyatmanti, W., Williamson, J. and Zak, D. (2023) Mapping and monitoring peatland conditions from global to field scale. Biogeochemistry. ISSN 0168-2563 doi: 10.1007/s10533-023-01084-1

Neo, V. H. F., Zinke, J., Fung, T., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Zawada, K. J. A., Krawczyk, H. and Maina, J. M. (2023) Inconsistent coral bleaching risk indicators between temperature data sources. Earth and Space Science, 10 (7). e2022EA002688. ISSN 2333-5084 doi: 10.1029/2022EA002688

Osso, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5653-4886, Craig, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9213-4599 and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2023) An assessment of CMIP6 climate signals and biases in temperature, precipitation and soil moisture over Europe. International Journal of Climatology, 43 (12). pp. 5698-5719. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: 10.1002/joc.8169

Palmer, P. I., Wainwright, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Dong, B., Maidment, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Wheeler, K. G., Gedney, N., Hickman, J. E., Madani, N., Folwell, S. S., Abdo, G., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Black, E. C. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Feng, L., Gudoshava, M., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Huntingford, C., Kilavi, M., Lunt, M. F., Shaaban, A. and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2023) Drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 4. pp. 254-270. ISSN 2662-138X doi: 10.1038/s43017-023-00397-x

Petch, S., Dong, B., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, King, R. P. and Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374 (2023) Precipitation explains GRACE water storage variability over large endorheic basins in the 21st century. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 11. ISSN 2296-665X doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1228998

Petch, S., Dong, B., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, King, R. P. and Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374 (2023) Water and energy budgets over hydrological basins on short and long timescales. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 27 (9). pp. 1723-1744. ISSN 1607-7938 doi: 10.5194/hess-27-1723-2023

Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Pinnington, E. M., Marzhan, P., Kaminski, T., Vossbeck, M., Timmermans, J., Isola, C., Rommen, B. and Loew, A. (2023) Synergistic retrievals of leaf area index and soil moisture from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2. International Journal of Image and Data Fusion, 14 (3). pp. 225-242. ISSN 1947-9824 doi: 10.1080/19479832.2022.2149629

Shataer, S., Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568 and Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 (2023) Conditioning of hybrid variational data assimilation. Numerical Linear Algebra with Applications. e2534. ISSN 1099-1506 doi: 10.1002/nla.2534

Song, S.-Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9447-1158, Yeh, S.-W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4549-1686, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Xie, S.-P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3676-1325, An, S.-I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0003-429X and Park, H.-S. (2023) Climate sensitivity controls global precipitation hysteresis in a changing CO2 pathway. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6. 156. ISSN 2397-3722 doi: 10.1038/s41612-023-00484-2

Toca, L., Artz, R. R. E., Smart, C., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Morrison, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8075-0316, Gimona, A., Hughes, R., Hancock, M. H. and Klein, D. (2023) Potential for peatland water table depth monitoring using Sentinel-1 SAR backscatter: case study of Forsinard Flows, Scotland, UK. Remote Sensing, 15 (7). 1900. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: 10.3390/rs15071900

Vandaele, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0693-8011, Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338 and Ojha, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9256-1192 (2023) Calibrated river-level estimation from river cameras using convolutional neural networks. Environmental Data Science, 2. e11. ISSN 2634-4602 doi: 10.1017/eds.2023.6

Wells, C. A., Kalise, D., Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220, Poll, I. and Williams, P. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9713-9820 (2023) The role of airspeed variability in fixed-time, fuel-optimal aircraft trajectory planning. Optimization and Engineering, 24. pp. 1057-1087. ISSN 1389-4420 doi: 10.1007/s11081-022-09720-9

Williams, N., Byrne, N., Feltham, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2289-014X, Van Leeuwen, P. J., Bannister, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6846-8297, Schroeder, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2351-4306, Ridout, A. and Nerger, L. (2023) The effects of assimilating a sub-grid scale sea ice thickness distribution in a new Arctic sea ice data assimilation system. The Cryosphere, 17 (6). pp. 2509-2532. ISSN 1994-0424 doi: 10.5194/tc-17-2509-2023

Zhu, J. and Bannister, R. N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6846-8297 (2023) The Hydro-ABC model (version 2.0): a simplified convective-scale model with moist dynamics. Geoscientific Model Development, 16 (21). pp. 6067-6085. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: 10.5194/gmd-16-6067-2023

Zhu, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6899-9920, Olde, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8825-8310, Lewis, K., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Cardenas, L., Loick, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5316-5552, Xu, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2348-125X and Hill, T. (2023) Eddy covariance fluxes over managed ecosystems extrapolated to field scales at fine spatial resolutions. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 342. 109675. ISSN 0168-1923 doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109675

2022

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Willett, K. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5151-0076, John, V. O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3280-978X and Trent, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9215-5808 (2022) Global changes in water vapor 1979‐2020. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127 (12). e2022JD036728. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: 10.1029/2022JD036728

Baguis, P., Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600, Roulin, E., Vannitsem, S., Modanesi, S., Lievens, H., Bechtold, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8042-9792 and De Lannoy, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6743-7122 (2022) Assimilation of backscatter observations into a hydrological model: a case study in Belgium using ASCAT data. Remote Sensing, 14 (22). 5740. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: 10.3390/rs14225740

Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600, Bocquet, M., Demaeyer, J., Grudzien, C., Raanes, P. and Vannitsem, S. (2022) Data Assimilation for Chaotic Dynamics. In: Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic and Hydrologic Applications (Vol. IV). Springer International Publishing, pp. 1-42. ISBN 9783030777227 doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-77722-7_1

Carrea, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3280-2767, Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850 and Woolway, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0498-7968 (2022) Lake surface water temperature [in "State of the Climate in 2021"]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103 (8). S28-S30. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: 10.1175/2022BAMSStateoftheClimate.1

Craig, P. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9213-4599 and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2022) The role of teleconnection patterns in the variability and trends of growing season indices across Europe. International Journal of Climatology, 42 (2). pp. 1072-1091. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: 10.1002/joc.7290

Douville, H., Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Arias, P. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1726-6000, Betts, R. A., Caretta, M. A., Cherchi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0178-9264, Mukherji, A., Raghavan, K. and Renwick, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9141-2486 (2022) Water remains a blind spot in climate change policies. PLOS Water, 1 (12). e0000058. ISSN 2767-3219 doi: 10.1371/journal.pwat.0000058

Gong, M., O'Donnell, R., Miller, C., Scott, M., Simis, S., Groom, S., Tyler, A., Hunter, P., Spyrakos, E., Merchant, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Maberly, S. and Carvalho, L. (2022) Adaptive smoothing to identify spatial structure in global lake ecological processes using satellite remote sensing data. Spatial statistics, 50. 100615. ISSN 2211-6753 doi: 10.1016/j.spasta.2022.100615

Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Ferreira, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3243-9774 and Mignac, D. (2022) Variability and feedbacks in the Atlantic freshwater budget of CMIP5 models with reference to Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation stability. Frontiers in Marine Science, 9. ISSN 2296-7745 doi: 10.3389/fmars.2022.830821

Harrison, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0693-347X and Nicoll, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5580-6325 (2022) The electricity of extensive layer clouds. Weather, 77 (11). pp. 379-383. ISSN 0043-1656 doi: 10.1002/wea.4307 (Special Issue: 250th anniversary of Luke Howard)

Harrison, R. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0693-347X, Nicoll, K. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5580-6325, Marlton, G. J., Tilley, D. J. and Iravani, P. (2022) Ionic charge emission into fog from a remotely piloted aircraft. Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (19). e2022GL099827. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2022GL099827

Hooker, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5135-3952, Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Mason, D. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Bevington, J. and Shelton, K. (2022) Spatial scale evaluation of forecast flood inundation maps. Journal of Hydrology, 612 (Part B). 128170. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128170

Horwath, M., Gutknecht, B. D., Cazenave, A., Palanisamy, H. K., Marti, F., Marzeion, B., Paul, F., Le Bris, R., Hogg, A. E., Otosake, I., Shepherd, A., Doll, P., Caceres, D., Schmied, H. M., Johannessen, J. A., Nilsen, J. E. Ø., Raj, R. P., Forsberg, R., Sorensen, L. S., Barletta, V. R., Simonsen, S. B., Knudsen, P., Andersen, O. B., Ranndal, H., Rose, S. K., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, MacIntosh, C. R., Schuckmann, K. v., Novotny, K., Groh, A., Restano, M. and Benveniste, J. (2022) Global sea-level budget and ocean-mass budget, with a focus on advanced data products and uncertainty characterisation. Earth System Science Data, 14 (2). pp. 411-447. ISSN 1866-3516 doi: 10.5194/essd-14-411-2022

John, V. O., Shi, L., Chung, E. S., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Buehler, S. A. and Soden, B. J., Blunden, J. and Boyer, T., eds. (2022) Upper Tropospheric Humidity. State of the Climate in 2021. 103 (8). Report. American Meteorological Society, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. doi: 10.1175/2022BAMSStateoftheClimate.1 (S54-S55)

Kumar, S., Kolassa, J., Reichle, R., Crow, W., de Lannoy, G., de Rosnay, P., MacBean, N., Manuela, G., Fox, A., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Draper, C., Forman, B., Balsamao, G., Steele-Dunne, S., Albergel, C., Bonan, B., Calvet, J.-C., Dong, J., Liddy, H. and Ruston, B. (2022) An agenda for land data assimilation priorities: realizing the promise of terrestrial water, energy, and vegetation observations from space. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 14 (11). e2022MS003259. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: 10.1029/2022MS003259

Lee, J. C. K., Amezcua, J. and Bannister, R. N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6846-8297 (2022) Hybrid ensemble-variational data assimilation in ABC-DA within a tropical framework. Geoscientific Model Development, 15 (15). pp. 6197-6219. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: 10.5194/gmd-2022-3

Leung, T. Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0056-284X, Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568, Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220, Lea, D. J. and Martin, M. J. (2022) The impact of hybrid oceanic data assimilation in a coupled model: a case study of a tropical cyclone. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 148 (746). pp. 2410-2430. ISSN 0035-9009 doi: 10.1002/qj.4309

Liu, C., Yang, Y., Liao, X., Cao, N., Liu, J., Ou, N., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Jin, L., Chen, N. and Zheng, R. (2022) Discrepancies in simulated ocean net surface heat fluxes over the North Atlantic. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 39 (11). pp. 1941-1955. ISSN 0256-1530 doi: 10.1007/s00376-022-1360-7

Liu, M., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Embury, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1661-7828, Liu, J., Song, Q. and Guan, L. (2022) Retrieval of sea surface temperature from HY-1B COCTS. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 60. 5002913. ISSN 0196-2892 doi: 10.1109/TGRS.2022.3190444

Mahmoud, S. H., Gan, T. Y., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Li, J. and Funk, C. (2022) Worsening drought of Nile basin under shift in atmospheric circulation, stronger ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole. Scientific Reports, 12. 8049. ISSN 2045-2322 doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-12008-8

Matthews, G., Barnard, C., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Jurlina, T., Mazzetti, C. and Prudhomme, C. (2022) Evaluating the impact of post-processing medium-range ensemble streamflow forecasts from the European Flood Awareness System. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 26 (11). pp. 2939-2968. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: 10.5194/hess-26-2939-2022

Osso, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5653-4886, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Maraun, D. (2022) Emerging new climate extremes over Europe. Climate Dynamics, 58. pp. 487-501. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-021-05917-3

Peña‐Angulo, D., Vicente‐Serrano, S. M., Domínguez‐Castro, F., Lorenzo‐Lacruz, J., Murphy, C., Hannaford, J., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Tramblay, Y., Reig‐Gracia, F. and El Kenawy, A. (2022) The complex and spatially diverse patterns of hydrological droughts across Europe. Water Resources Research, 58 (4). e2022WR031976. ISSN 0043-1397 doi: 10.1029/2022WR031976

Sandoval, P. S., Dall'Olmo, G., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Rasse, R. and Ross, J. (2022) Uncertainties of particulate organic carbon concentrations in the mesopelagic zone of the Atlantic ocean. Open Research Europe. ISSN 2732-5121 doi: 10.12688/openreseurope.13395.3 ([version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations, 1 not approved])

Scheffler, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6474-1372, Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600, Ruiz, J. and Pulido, M. (2022) Dynamical effects of inflation in ensemble‐based data assimilation under the presence of model error. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 148 (746). pp. 2368-2383. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.4307

Sidoumou, M., Kim, A., Walton, J., Kelley, D., Parker, R. and Swaminathan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5853-2673 (2022) Explainable Clustering Applied to the Definition of Terrestrial Biomes. In: Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Pattern Recognition Applications and Methods - ICPRAM, 3-5 FEB 2022, Online, pp. 586-595. doi: 10.5220/0010842400003122

Tabeart, J. M., Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568, Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 and Waller, J. A. (2022) New bounds on the condition number of the Hessian of the preconditioned variational data assimilation problem. Numerical Linear Algebra with Applications, 29 (1). e2405. ISSN 1099-1506 doi: 10.1002/nla.2405

Wainwright, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2022) Consistent trends in dry spell length in recent observations and future projections. Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (12). ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2021GL097231

2021

Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2021) How and why Earth's climate is changing. In: Weather - A force of nature: Spectacular images from weather photographer of the year. Natural History Museum, London, England, pp. 6-7, pp. 192. ISBN 9780565095253

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Bellouin, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2109-9559 and Collins, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7419-0850 (2021) IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R. and Zhou, B. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, pp. 1-2. doi: 10.1017/9781009157896.001

Amezcua, J. and Barton, Z. (2021) Assimilating atmospheric infrasound data to constrain atmospheric winds in a two-dimensional grid. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147 (740). pp. 3530-3554. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.4141

Arias, P. A., Bellouin, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2109-9559, Coppola, E., Jones, R. G., Krinner, G., Marotzke, J., Naik, V., Palmer, M. D., Plattner, G.-K., Rogelj, J., Rojas, M., Sillmann, J., Storelvmo, T., Thorne, P. W., Trewin, B., Rao, K. A., Adhikary, B., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Armour, K., Bala, G., Barimalala, R., Berger, S., Canadell, J. G., Cassou, C., Cherchi, A., Collins, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7419-0850, Collins, W. D., Connors, S. L., Corti, S., Cruz, F., Dentener, F. J., Dereczynski, C., Luca, A. D., Niang, A. D., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Dosio, A., Douville, H., Engelbrecht, F., Eyring, V., Fischer, E., Forster, P., Fox-Kemper, B., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Fyfe, J. C., Gillett, N. P., Goldfarb, L., Gorodetskaya, I., Gutierrez, J. M., Hamdi, R., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Hewitt, H. T., Hope, P., Islam, A. S., Jones, C., Kaufman, D. S., Kopp, R. E., Kosaka, Y., Kossin, J., Krakovska, S., Lee, J.-Y., Li, J., Mauritsen, T., Maycock, T. K., Meinshausen, M., Min, S.-K., Monteiro, P. M. S., Ngo-Duc, T., Otto, F., Pinto, I., Pirani, A., Raghavan, K., Ranasinghe, R., Ruane, A. C., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J.-B., Samset, B. H., Sathyendranath, S., Seneviratne, S. I., Sörensson, A. A., Szopa, S., Takayabu, I., Tréguier, A.-M., van den Hurk, B., Vautard, R., von Schuckmann, K., Zaehle, S., Zhang, X. and Zickfeld., K. (2021) Technical summary. In: Masson-Delmotte, V. P., Zhai, A., Pirani, S. L. and Connors, C. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group. Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 33-144. doi: 10.1017/9781009157896.002

Bannister, R. N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6846-8297 (2021) Balance conditions in variational data assimilation for a high-resolution forecast model. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147 (738). ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.4106

Bonavita, M., Arcucci, R., Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600, Dueben, P., Geer, A. J., Le Saux, B., Longépé, N., Mathieu, P.-P. and Raynaud, L. (2021) Machine learning for earth system observation and prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102 (4). E710-E716. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0307.1

Brajard, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0634-1482, Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600, Bocquet, M. and Bertino, L. (2021) Combining data assimilation and machine learning to infer unresolved scale parametrization. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 379 (2194). 20200086. ISSN 1364-503X doi: 10.1098/rsta.2020.0086

Chen, Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2319-6937, Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600 and Lucarini, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9392-1471 (2021) Inferring the instability of a dynamical system from the skill of data assimilation exercises. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 28 (4). pp. 633-649. ISSN 1023-5809 doi: 10.5194/npg-28-633-2021

Chen, Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2319-6937, Simon, K. and Behrens, J. (2021) Extending legacy climate models by adaptive mesh refinement for single-component tracer transport: a case study with ECHAM6-HAMMOZ (ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3-MOZ1.0). Geoscientific Model Development, 14 (5). pp. 2289-2316. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: 10.5194/gmd-14-2289-2021

Dauzickaite, I., Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568, Scott, J. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2130-1091 and Leeuwen, P. J. (2021) On time-parallel preconditioning for the state formulation of incremental weak constraint 4D-Var. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147 (740). pp. 3521-3529. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.4140

Dong, B., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374 and Martin, M. (2021) Improved high resolution ocean reanalyses using a simple smoother algorithm. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 13 (12). e2021MS002626. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: 10.1029/2021MS002626

Douville, H., Raghavan, K., Renwick, J., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Arias, P. A., Barlow, M., Cerezo-Mota, R., Cherchi, A., Gan, T. Y., Gergis, J., Jiang, D., Khan, A., Mba, W. P., Rosenfeld, D., Tierney, J. and Zolina, O. (2021) Water cycle changes. In: Masson-Delmotte, V. P., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonno, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R. and Zhou, B. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to 45 the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 1055-1210. doi: 10.1017/9781009157896.010

Evensen, G., Amezcua, J., Bocquet, M., Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600, Farchi, A., Fowler, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3650-3948, Houtekamer, P. L., Jones, C. K., de Moraes, R. J., Pulido, M., Sampson, C. and Vossepoel, F. C. (2021) An international initiative of predicting the Sars-Cov-2 pandemic using ensemble data assimilation. Foundations of Data Science, 3 (3). pp. 413-477. ISSN 2639-8001 doi: 10.3934/fods.2021001

Fowler, H. J., Lenderink, G., Prein, A. F., Westra, S., Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Ban, N., Barbero, R., Berg, P., Blenkinsop, S., Do, H. X., Guerreiro, S. B., Haerter, J. O., Kendon, E., Lewis, E., Schaer, C., Sharma, A., Villarini, G., Wasko, C. and Zhang, X. (2021) Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 2. pp. 107-122. ISSN 2662-138X doi: 10.1038/s43017-020-00128-6

Gulev, S. K., Thorne, P. W., Ahn, J., Dentener, F. J., Domingues, C. M., Gerland, S., Gong, D., Kaufman, D. S., Nnamchi, H. C., Quaas, J., Rivera, J. A., Sathyendranath, S., Smith, S. L., Trewin, B., von Schuckmann, K., Vose, R. S., Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Collins, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7419-0850, Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2021) Changing state of the climate system. In: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R. and Zhou, B. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 287-422. doi: 10.1017/9781009157896.004

John, V. O., Shi, L., Chung, E.-S., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Buehler, S. A. and Soden, B. J. (2021) Upper tropospheric humidity [in "State of the Climate in 2020"]. In: State of the climate in 2020. American Meteorological Society, S55-S56. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0098.1

Lees, K. J., Khomik, M., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Clark, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0412-8824, Hill, T., Klein, D., Ritson, J. and Artz, R. R. E. (2021) Assessing the reliability of peatland GPP measurements by remote sensing: from plot to landscape scale. Science of the Total Environment, 766. 142613. ISSN 0048-9697 doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142613

Otkin, J. A., Potthast, R. W. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6794-2500 and Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568 (2021) Nonlinear conditional model bias estimation for data assimilation. SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems, 20 (1). pp. 299-332. ISSN 1536-0040 doi: 10.1137/19M1294848

Pinnington, E., Amezcua, J., Cooper, E., Dadson, S., Ellis, R., Peng, J., Robinson, E., Morrison, R., Osborne, S. and Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 (2021) Improving soil moisture prediction of a high-resolution land surface model by parameterising pedotransfer functions through assimilation of SMAP satellite data. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25 (3). pp. 1617-1641. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: 10.5194/hess-25-1617-2021

Ren, H., Amezcua, J. and Van Leeuwen, P. J. (2021) Effects of misspecified time-correlated model error in the (ensemble) Kalman Smoother. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147 (734). pp. 573-588. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.3934

Rollinson, C. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0181-7293, Dawson, A., Raiho, A. M., Williams, J. W., Dietze, M. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2324-2518, Hickler, T., Jackson, S. T., McLachlan, J., Moore, D. J. P., Poulter, B., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Steinkamp, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7861-8789, Trachsel, M. and Morin, X. (2021) Forest responses to last‐millennium hydroclimate variability are governed by spatial variations in ecosystem sensitivity. Ecology Letters, 24 (3). pp. 498-508. ISSN 1461-023X doi: 10.1111/ele.13667

Sampson, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4275-4877, Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600, Aydogdu, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1557-7502 and Jones, C. K.R.T. (2021) Ensemble Kalman Filter for non‐conservative moving mesh solvers with a joint physics and mesh location update. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147 (736). pp. 1539-1567. ISSN 0035-9009 doi: 10.1002/qj.3980

Seneviratne, S. I., Zhang, X., Adnan, M., Badi, W., Dereczynski, C., Luca, A. D., Ghosh, S., Iskandar, I., Kossin, J., Lewis, S., Otto, F., Pinto, I., Satoh, M., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Wehner, M., Zhou, B. and Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2021) Weather and climate extreme events in a changing climate. In: Masson-Delmotte, V. P., Zhai, A., Pirani, S. L. and Connors, C. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 1513-1766. doi: 10.1017/9781009157896.013

Wainwright, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2021) Future changes in wet and dry season characteristics in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 22 (9). pp. 2339-2357. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0017.1

Watters, D., Battaglia, A. and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2021) The diurnal cycle of precipitation according to multiple decades of global satellite observations, three CMIP6 models, and the ECMWF reanalysis. Journal of Climate, 34 (12). pp. 5063-5080. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0966.1

Wells, C. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9438-4954, Williams, P. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9713-9820, Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220, Kalise, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2327-1957 and Poll, I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8057-8467 (2021) Reducing transatlantic flight emissions by fuel-optimised routing. Environmental Research Letters, 16 (2). 025002. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/abce82

Yang, C., Leonelli, F. E., Marullo, S., Artale, V., Beggs, H., Bunogiorno Nardelli, B., Chin, T. M., De Toma, V., Good, S., Huang, B., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Sakurai, T., Santoleri, R., Vazquez-Cuervo, J., Zhang, H.-M. and Pisano, A. (2021) Sea surface temperature intercomparison in the framework of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). Journal of Climate, 34 (13). pp. 5257-5283. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0793.1

Yeh, S.-W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4549-1686, Song, S.-Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9447-1158, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, An, S.-I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0003-429X and Shin, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3199-7646 (2021) Contrasting response of hydrological cycle over land and ocean to a changing CO2 pathway. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 4 (1). 53. ISSN 2397-3722 doi: 10.1038/s41612-021-00206-6

2020

Allan, D. and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2020) Seasonal changes in the North Atlantic cold anomaly: the influence of cold surface waters from coastal Greenland and warming trends associated with variations in subarctic sea ice cover. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 124 (12). pp. 9040-9052. ISSN 2169-9275 doi: 10.1029/2019JC015379

Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Blenkinsop, S., Fowler, H. J. and Champion, A. J. (2020) Atmospheric precursors for intense summer rainfall over the UK. International Journal of Climatology, 40 (8). pp. 3849-3867. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: 10.1002/joc.6431

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Barlow, M., Byrne, M. P., Cherchi, A., Douville, H., Fowler, H. J., Gan, T. Y., Pendergrass, A. G., Rosenfeld, D., Swann, A. L. S., Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 and Zolina, O. (2020) Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1472 (1). pp. 49-75. ISSN 1749-6632 doi: 10.1111/nyas.14337

Allison, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9271-1197, Palmer, M. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7422-198X, Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Hermanson, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1062-6731, Liu, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6663-452X and Smith, D. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5708-694X (2020) Observations of planetary heating since the 1980s from multiple independent datasets. Environmental Research Communications, 2 (10). p. 101001. ISSN 2515-7620 doi: 10.1088/2515-7620/abbb39

Amezcua, J., Nasholm, P., Blixt, M. and Charlton-Perez, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8179-6220 (2020) Assimilation of atmospheric infrasound data to constrain tropospheric and stratospheric winds. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (731). pp. 2634-2653. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.3809

Bannister, R. N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6846-8297 (2020) The ABC-DA system (v1.4): a variational data assimilation system for convective-scale assimilation research with a study of the impact of a balance constraint. Geoscientific Model Development, 13 (8). pp. 3789-3816. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: 10.5194/gmd-13-3789-2020

Bannister, R. N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6846-8297, Chipilski, H. and Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379 (2020) Techniques and challenges in the assimilation of atmospheric water observations for numerical weather prediction towards convective scales. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (726). pp. 1-48. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.3652

Bocquet, M., Brajard, J., Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600 and Bertino, L. (2020) Bayesian inference of chaotic dynamics by merging data assimilation, machine learning and expectation-maximization. Foundations of Data Science, 2 (1). pp. 55-80. ISSN 2639-8001 doi: 10.3934/fods.2020004

Braghiere, R. K., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Ryu, Y., Chen, Q., De Kauwe, M. G. and Baldocchi, D. (2020) Influence of sun zenith angle on canopy clumping and the resulting impacts on photosynthesis. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 291. 108065. ISSN 0168-1923 doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108065

Brajard, J., Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600, Bocquet, M. and Bertino, L. (2020) Combining data assimilation and machine learning to emulate a dynamical model from sparse and noisy observations: a case study with the Lorenz 96 model. Journal of Computational Science, 44. 101171. ISSN 2153-4136 doi: 10.1016/j.jocs.2020.101171

Bulgin, C. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4368-7386, Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850 and Ferreira, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3243-9774 (2020) Tendencies, variability and persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies. Scientific Reports, 10. 7986. ISSN 2045-2322 doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-64785-9

Chakraborty, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3134-1946 (2020) Exploring finite-sized scale invariance in stochastic variability with toy models: the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Model. Symmetry, 12 (11). 1927. ISSN 2073-8994 doi: 10.3390/sym12111927

Cheng, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7304-2442, Aydoğdu, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1557-7502, Rampal, P., Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600 and Bertino, L. (2020) Probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories in the arctic: impact of uncertainties in surface wind and ice cohesion. Oceans, 1 (4). pp. 326-342. ISSN 2673-1924 doi: 10.3390/oceans1040022

Cleator, S. F., Harrison, S. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5687-1903, Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220, Prentice, I. C. and Roulstone, I. (2020) A method for generating coherent spatially explicit maps of seasonal palaeoclimates from site-based reconstructions. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12 (1). e2019MS001630. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: 10.1029/2019MS001630

Dauzickaite, I., Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568, Scott, J. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2130-1091 and Van Leeuwen, P. J. (2020) Spectral estimates for saddle point matrices arising in weak constraint four-dimensional variational data assimilation. Numerical Linear Algebra with Applications, 27 (5). ISSN 1099-1506 doi: 10.1002/nla.2313

Fowler, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3650-3948, Simonin, D. and Waller, J. (2020) Measuring theoretical and actual observation influence in the Met Office UKV: application to Doppler radial winds. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (24). ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2020GL091110

Grudzien, C., Bocquet, M. and Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600 (2020) On the numerical integration of the Lorenz-96 model, with scalar additive noise, for benchmark twin experiments. Geoscientific Model Development, 13 (4). pp. 1903-1924. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: 10.5194/gmd-13-1903-2020

John, V. O., Shi, L., Chung, E.-S., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Buehler, S. A. and Soden, B. J. (2020) Upper tropospheric humidity. In: Blunden, J. and Arndt, D. S. (eds.) State of the Climate in 2019. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101 (8). American Meteorological Society, S45-S46. doi: 10.1175/2020BAMSStateoftheClimate.1

Lees, K. J., Artz, R. R. E., Khomik, M., Clark, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0412-8824, Ritson, J., Hancock, M. H., Cowie, N. R. and Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 (2020) Using spectral indices to estimate water content and GPP in Sphagnum moss and other peatland vegetation. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 58 (7). pp. 4547-4557. ISSN 0196-2892 doi: 10.1109/TGRS.2019.2961479

Liu, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6663-452X, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Mayer, M., Hyder, P., Desbruyères, D., Cheng, L., Xu, J., Xu, F. and Zhang, Y. (2020) Variability in the global energy budget and transports 1985–2017. Climate Dynamics, 55. pp. 3381-3396. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-020-05451-8

Liu, C., Liao, X., Qiu, J., Yang, Y., Feng, X., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Cao, N., Long, J. and Xu, J. (2020) Observed variability of intertropical convergence zone over 1998-2018. Environmental Research Letters, 15 (10). 104011. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aba033

Loeb, N. G., Wang, H., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Andrews, T., Armour, K., Cole, J. N.S., Dufresne, J.‐L., Forster, P., Gettelman, A., Guo, H., Mauritsen, T., Ming, Y., Paynter, D., Proistosescu, C., Stuecker, M. F., Willén, U. and Wyser, K. (2020) New generation of climate models track recent unprecedented changes in Earth's radiation budget observed by CERES. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (5). e2019GL086705. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2019GL086705

Maberly, S. C., O'Donnell, R. A., Woolway, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0498-7968, Cutler, M. E. J., Gong, M., Jones, I. D., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Miller, C. A., Politi, E., Scott, E. M., Thackeray, S. J. and Tyler, A. N. (2020) Global lake thermal regions shift under climate change. Nature Communications, 11. 1232. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-15108-z

Merchant, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Saux-Picart, S. and Waller, J. (2020) Bias correction and covariance parameters for optimal estimation by exploiting matched in-situ references. Remote Sensing of Environment, 237. 111590. ISSN 0034-4257 doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2019.111590

Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850 and Embury, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1661-7828 (2020) Adjusting for desert-dust-related biases in a climate data record of sea surface temperature. Remote Sensing, 12 (16). 2554. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: 10.3390/rs12162554

Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Block, T., Corlett, G. K., Embury, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1661-7828, Mittaz, J. P. D. and Mollard, J. D. P. (2020) Harmonization of space-borne infra-red sensors measuring sea surface temperature. Remote Sensing, 12 (6). 1048. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: 10.3390/rs12061048

Piccolroaz, S., Woolway, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0498-7968 and Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850 (2020) Global reconstruction of twentieth century lake surface water temperature reveals different warming trends depending on the climatic zone. Climatic Change, 160 (3). pp. 427-442. ISSN 0165-0009 doi: 10.1007/s10584-020-02663-z

Polo, I., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X and Thomas, C. (2020) Can the boundary profiles at 26° N be used to extract buoyancy-forced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation signals? Ocean Science, 16 (5). pp. 1067-1088. ISSN 1812-0784 doi: 10.5194/os-16-1067-2020

Rayner, N. A., Auchmann, R., Bessembinder, J., Brönnimann, S., Brugnara, Y., Capponi, F., Carrea, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3280-2767, Dodd, E. M. A., Ghent, D., Good, E., Høyer, J. L., Kennedy, J. J., Kent, E. C., Killick, R. E., van der Linden, P., Lindgren, F., Madsen, K. S., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Mitchelson, J. R., Morice, C. P., Nielsen-Englyst, P., Ortiz, P. F., Remedios, J. J., van der Schrier, G., Squintu, A. A., Stephens, A., Thorne, P. W., Tonboe, R. T., Trent, T., Veal, K. L., Waterfall, A. M., Winfield, K., Winn, J. and Woolway, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0498-7968 (2020) The EUSTACE project: delivering global, daily information on surface air temperature. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101 (11). E1924-E1947. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0095.1

Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Aksenov, Y., Bracegirdle, T. J., Dimdore-Miles, O., Griffiths, P. T., Grosvenor, D. P., Hodson, D. L.R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700, Keeble, J., MacIntosh, C., Megann, A., Osprey, S., Povey, A. C., Schröder, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2351-4306, Yang, M., Archibald, A. T., Carslaw, K. S., Gray, L., Jones, C., Kerridge, B., Knappett, D., Kuhlbrodt, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2328-6729, Russo, M., Sellar, A., Siddans, R., Sinha, B., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Walton, J. and Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 (2020) The evaluation of the North Atlantic climate system in UKESM1 historical simulations for CMIP6. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12 (9). e2020MS002126. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: 10.1029/2020MS002126

Schwarz, M., Folini, D., Yang, S., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Wild, M. (2020) Changes in atmospheric shortwave absorption as important driver of dimming and brightening. Nature Geoscience, 13 (2). pp. 110-115. ISSN 1752-0894 doi: 10.1038/s41561-019-0528-y

Somkuti, P., Boesch, H., Feng, L., Palmer, P. I., Parker, R. J. and Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 (2020) A new space-borne perspective of crop productivity variations over the US Corn Belt. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 281. 107826. ISSN 0168-1923 doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107826

Tabeart, J. M., Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568, Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 and Waller, J. A. (2020) Improving the condition number of estimated covariance matrices. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology & Oceanography, 72 (1). pp. 1-19. ISSN 1600-0870 doi: 10.1080/16000870.2019.1696646

Tandeo, P., Ailliot, P., Bocquet, M., Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600, Miyoshi, T., Pulido, M. and Zhen, Y. (2020) A review of innovation-based methods to jointly estimate model and observation error covariance matrices in ensemble data assimilation. Monthly Weather Review, 148 (10). ISSN 0027-0644 doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-19-0240.1

Thomas, C. M., Dong, B. and Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374 (2020) Inverse modeling of global and regional energy and water cycle fluxes using Earth observation data. Journal of Climate, 33 (5). pp. 1707-1723. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0343.1

Tondeur, M., Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600, Vannitsem, S. and Bocquet, M. (2020) On temporal scale separation in coupled data assimilation with the ensemble Kalman filter. Journal of Statistical Physics, 179 (5-6). pp. 1161-1185. ISSN 0022-4715 doi: 10.1007/s10955-020-02525-z

Vetra-Carvalho, S., Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Mason, D. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Waller, J. A., Cooper, E. S., Smith, P. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4570-4127 and Tabeart, J. M. (2020) Collection and extraction of water level information from a digital river camera image dataset. Data In Brief, 33. 106338. ISSN 2352-3409 doi: 10.1016/j.dib.2020.106338

Woolway, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0498-7968, Kraemer, B. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3390-9005, Lenters, J. D., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, O’Reilly, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9685-3697 and Sharma, S. (2020) Global lake responses to climate change. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 1. pp. 388-403. ISSN 2662-138X doi: 10.1038/s43017-020-0067-5

Zobitz, J. M., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 and Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 (2020) Efficient hyper-parameter determination for regularised linear BRDF parameter retrieval. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 41 (4). pp. 1437-1457. ISSN 1366-5901 doi: 10.1080/01431161.2019.1667552

2019

Arnold, D. W. D., Biggs, J., Dietterich, H. R., Vallejo Vargas, S., Wadge, G. and Mothes, P. (2019) Lava flow morphology at an erupting andesitic stratovolcano: a satellite perspective on El Reventador, Ecuador. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 372. pp. 34-47. ISSN 0377-0273 doi: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2019.01.009

Aydoğdu, A., Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600, Guider, C. T., Jones, C. K. R. T. and Rampal, P. (2019) Data assimilation using adaptive, non-conservative, moving mesh models. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 26 (3). pp. 175-193. ISSN 1607-7946 doi: 10.5194/npg-26-175-2019

Bocquet, M., Brajard, J., Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600 and Bertino, L. (2019) Data assimilation as a learning tool to infer ordinary differential equation representations of dynamical models. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 26 (3). pp. 143-162. ISSN 1607-7946 doi: 10.5194/npg-26-143-2019

Boult, V. L., Fishlock, V., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Moss, C., Lee, P. C. and Sibly, R. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6828-3543 (2019) Human‐driven habitat conversion is a more immediate threat to Amboseli elephants than climate change. Conservation Science and Practice, 1 (9). pp. 1-10. ISSN 2578-4854 doi: 10.1111/csp2.87

Braghiere, R. K., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, He, L. and Chen, J. M. (2019) Underestimation of global photosynthesis in Earth System Models due to representation of vegetation structure. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 33 (11). pp. 1358-1369. ISSN 1944-9224 doi: 10.1029/2018GB006135

Cafaro, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8063-4887, Frame, T. H. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6542-2173, Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872, Roberts, N. and Bröcker, J. (2019) The added value of convection-permitting ensemble forecasts of sea breeze compared to a Bayesian forecast driven by the global ensemble. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145 (721). pp. 1780-1798. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.3531

Centurioni, L. R., Turton, J., Lumpkin, R., Braasch, L., Brassington, G., Chao, Y., Charpentier, E., Chen, Z., Corlett, G., Dohan, K., Donlon, C., Gallage, C., Hormann, V., Ignatov, A., Ingleby, B., Jensen, R., Kelly-Gerreyn, B. A., Koszalka, I. M., Lin, X., Lindstrom, E., Maximenko, N., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Minnett, P., O'Carroll, A., Paluszkiewicz, T., Poli, P., Poulain, P.-M., Reverdin, G., Sun, X., Swail, V., Thurston, S., Wu, L., Yu, L., Wang, B. and Zhang, D. (2019) Global in situ observations of essential climate and ocean variables at the air–sea interface. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6. 419. ISSN 2296-7745 doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00419

Faulkner, A., Bulgin, C. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4368-7386 and Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850 (2019) Coastal tidal effects on industrial thermal plumes in satellite imagery. Remote Sensing, 11 (8). 2132. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: 10.3390/rs11182132

Fiedler, E. K., McLaren, A., Banzon, V., Brasnett, B., Ishizaki, S., Kennedy, J., Rayner, N., Roberts-Jones, J., Corlett, G., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850 and Donlon, C. (2019) Intercomparison of long-term sea surface temperature analyses using the GHRSST Multi-Product Ensemble (GMPE) system. Remote Sensing of Environment, 222. pp. 18-33. ISSN 0034-4257 doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2018.12.015

Fowler, A. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3650-3948 (2019) Data compression in the presence of observational error correlations. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 71 (1). pp. 1-16. ISSN 0280-6495 doi: 10.1080/16000870.2019.1634937

Gommenginger, C., Chapron, B., Hogg, A., Buckingham, C., Fox-Kemper, B., Eriksson, L., Soulat, F., Ubelmann, C., Ocampo-Torres, F., Nardelli, B. B., Griffin, D., Lopez-Dekker, P., Knudsen, P., Andersen, O., Stenseng, L., Stapleton, N., Perrie, W., Violante-Carvalho, N., Schulz-Stellenfleth, J., Woolf, D., Isern-Fontanet, J., Ardhuin, F., Klein, P., Mouche, A., Pascual, A., Capet, X., Hauser, D., Stoffelen, A., Morrow, R., Aouf, L., Breivik, Ø., Fu, L.-L., Johannessen, J. A., Aksenov, Y., Bricheno, L., Hirschi, J., Martin, A. C. H., Martin, A. P., Nurser, G., Polton, J., Wolf, J., Johnsen, H., Soloviev, A., Jacobs, G. A., Collard, F., Groom, S., Kudryavtsev, V., Wilkin, J., Navarro, V., Babanin, A., Martin, M., Siddorn, J., Saulter, A., Rippeth, T., Emery, B., Maximenko, N., Romeiser, R., Graber, H., Azcarate, A. A., Hughes, C. W., Vandemark, D., Silva, J. d., Van Leeuwen, P. J., Naveira-Garabato, A., Gemmrich, J., Mahadevan, A., Marquez, J., Munro, Y., Doody, S. and Burbidge, G. (2019) SEASTAR: a mission to study ocean submesoscale dynamics and small-scale atmosphere-ocean processes in coastal, shelf and polar seas. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6. 457. ISSN 2296-7745 doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00457

Holl, G., Mittaz, J. P.D. and Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850 (2019) Error correlations in High-Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS) Radiances. Remote Sensing, 11 (11). 1337. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: 10.3390/rs11111337

Jackson, L. C., Dubois, C., Forget, G., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Harrison, M., Iovino, D., Kӧhl, A., Mignac, D., Masina, S., Peterson, K. A., Piecuch, C. G., Roberts, C., Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Storto, A., Toyoda, T., Valdivieso, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1738-7016, Wilson, C., Wang, Y. and Zuo, H. (2019) The mean state and variability of the North Atlantic circulation: a perspective from ocean reanalyses. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 124 (12). pp. 9141-9170. ISSN 2169-9291 doi: 10.1029/2019JC015210

John, V. O., Shi, L., Chung, E.-S., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Buehler, S. A. and Soden, B. J. (2019) Upper tropospheric humidity [in "State of the Climate 2018"]. In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100 (9). American Meteorological Society, pp. 1625-1636. doi: 10.1175/2019BAMSStateoftheClimate.1

Lees, K., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Artz, R., Khomik, M., Sottocomota, M., Kiely, G., Hambley, G., Hill, T., Saunders, M., Cowle, N. R., Ritson, J. and Clark, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0412-8824 (2019) A model of gross primary productivity based on satellite data suggests formerly afforested peatlands undergoing restoration regain full photosynthesis capacity after five to ten years. Journal of Environmental Management, 246. pp. 594-604. ISSN 0301-4797 doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.03.040

Mason, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9699-8850, Hogan, R. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3180-5157, Westbrook, C. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2889-8815, Kneifel, S., Moisseev, D. and von Terzi, L. (2019) The importance of particle size distribution and internal structure for triple-frequency radar retrievals of the morphology of snow. Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 12 (9). pp. 4993-5018. ISSN 1867-8548 doi: 10.5194/amt-12-4993-2019

Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Embury, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1661-7828, Bulgin, C. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4368-7386, Block, T., Corlett, G. K., Fiedler, E., Good, S. A., Mittaz, J., Rayner, N. A., Berry, D., Eastwood, S., Taylor, M., Tsushima, Y., Waterfall, A., Wilson, R. and Donlon, C. (2019) Satellite-based time-series of sea-surface temperature since 1981 for climate applications. Scientific Data, 6. 223. ISSN 2052-4463 doi: 10.1038/s41597-019-0236-x

Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Holl, G., Mittaz, J. P. D. and Woolliams, E. R. (2019) Radiance uncertainty characterisation to facilitate climate data record creation. Remote Sensing, 11 (5). 474. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: 10.3390/rs11050474

Metref, S., Hannart, A., Ruiz, J., Bocquet, M., Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600 and Ghil, M. (2019) Estimating model evidence using ensemble‐based data assimilation with localization – the model selection problem. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145 (721). pp. 1571-1588. ISSN 0035-9009 doi: 10.1002/qj.3513

Mignac, D., Ferreira, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3243-9774 and Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374 (2019) Decoupled freshwater transport and meridional overturning in the South Atlantic. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (4). pp. 2178-2186. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2018GL081328

Mirza, A. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6350-9080, Ballard, S. P., Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Rooney, G. G. and Stone, E. K. (2019) Towards operational use of aircraft‐derived observations: a case study at London Heathrow airport. Meteorological Applications, 26 (4). pp. 542-555. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: 10.1002/met.1782

Mittaz, J., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850 and Woolliams, E. R. (2019) Applying principles of metrology to historical Earth observations from satellites. Metrologia, 56 (3). ISSN 0026-1394 doi: 10.1088/1681-7575/ab1705

Morris, P. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8533-8232, Chakraborty, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3134-1946 and Cotter, G. (2019) Deviations from normal distributions in artificial and real time series: a false positive prescription. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 489 (2). pp. 2117-2129. ISSN 0035-8711 doi: 10.1093/mnras/stz2259

O'Carroll, A. G., Armstrong, E. M., Beggs, H. M., Bouali, M., Casey, K. S., Corlett, G. K., Dash, P., Donlon, C. J., Gentemann, C. L., Hoyer, J. L., Ignatov, A., Kabobah, K., Kachi, M., Kurihara, Y., Karagali, I., Maturi, E., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Marullo, S., Minnett, P., Pennybacker, M., Ramakrishnan, B., Santoleri, R., Sunder, S., Saux Picart, S., Vazquez-Cuervo, J. and Wimmer, W. (2019) Observational needs of sea surface temperature. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6. 420. ISSN 2296-7745 doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00420

Pearson, K., Good, S., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Prigent, C., Embury, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1661-7828 and Donlon, C. (2019) Sea surface temperature in global analyses: gains from the copernicus imaging microwave radiometer. Remote Sensing, 11 (20). 2362. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: 10.3390/rs11202362

Pinheiro, F. R., Van Leeuwen, P. J. and Geppert, G. (2019) Efficient nonlinear data assimilation using synchronisation in a particle filter. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145 (723). pp. 2510-2523. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.3576

Poli, P., Lucas, M., O'Carroll, A., Le Menn, M., David, A., Corlett, G. K., Blouch, P., Meldrum, D., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Belbeoch, M. and Herklotz, K. (2019) The Copernicus surface velocity platform drifter with barometer and reference sensor for temperature (SVP-BRST): genesis, design, and initial results. Ocean Science, 15. pp. 199-214. ISSN 1812-0784 doi: 10.5194/os-15-199-2019

Pulido, M., Van Leeuwen, P. J. and Posselt, D. J. (2019) Kernel embedded nonlinear observational mappings in the variational mapping particle filter. In: ICCS 2019, 12-14 Jun 2019, Faro, Portugal, pp. 141-155. doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-22747-0_11

Raanes, P. N., Bocquet, M. and Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600 (2019) Adaptive covariance inflation in the ensemble Kalman filter by Gaussian scale mixtures. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145 (718). pp. 53-75. ISSN 0035-9009 doi: 10.1002/qj.3386

Schevenhoven, F., Selten, F., Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600 and Keenlyside, N. (2019) Improving weather and climate predictions by training of supermodels. Earth System Dynamics, 10 (4). pp. 789-807. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: 10.5194/esd-10-789-2019

Sellar, A. A., Jones, C. G., Mulcahy, J., Tang, Y., Yool, A., Wiltshire, A., O'Connor, F. M., Stringer, M., Hill, R., Palmieri, J., Woodward, S., De Mora, L., Kuhlbrodt, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2328-6729, Rumbold, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8138-4541, Kelley, D. I., Ellis, R., Johnson, C. E., Walton, J., Abraham, N. L., Andrews, M. B., Andrews, T., Archibald, A. T., Berthou, S., Burke, E., Blockley, E., Carslaw, K., Dalvi, M., Edwards, J., Folberth, G. A., Gedney, N., Griffiths, P. T., Harper, A. B., Hendry, M. A., Hewitt, A. J., Johnson, B., Jones, A., Jones, C. D., Keeble, J., Liddicoat, S., Morgenstern, O., Parker, R. J., Predoi, V., Robertson, E., Siahaan, A., Smith, R. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7479-7778, Swaminathan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5853-2673, Woodhouse, M. T., Zeng, G. and Zerroukat, M. (2019) UKESM1: description and evaluation of the UK Earth System Model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11 (12). pp. 4513-4558. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: 10.1029/2019MS001739

Sgura, I., Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568 and Bozzini, B. (2019) Parameter estimation for a morphochemical reaction-diffusion model of electrochemical pattern formation. Inverse Problems in Science and Engineering, 27 (5). pp. 618-647. ISSN 1741-5985 doi: 10.1080/17415977.2018.1490278

Simonin, D., Waller, J. A., Ballard, S. P., Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338 and Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 (2019) A pragmatic strategy for implementing spatially correlated observation errors in an operational system: an application to Doppler radial winds. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145 (723). pp. 2772-2790. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.3592

Skauvold, J., Eidsvik, J., Van Leeuwen, P. J. and Amezcua, J. (2019) A revised implicit equal-weights particle filter. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145 (721). ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.3506

Uotila, P., Goosse, H., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Chevallier, M., Barthelemy, A., Bricaud, C., Carton, J., Fuckar, N., Garric, G., Iovino, D., Kauker, F., Korhonen, M., Lien, V. S., Marnela, M., Massonnet, F., Mignac, D., Peterson, K. A., Sadikni, R., Shi, L., Tietsche, S., Toyoda, T., Xie, J. and Zhang, Z. (2019) An assessment of ten ocean reanalyses in the polar regions. Climate Dynamics, 52 (3-4). pp. 1613-1650. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4242-z

Van Leeuwen, P. J. (2019) Nonlocal observations and information transfer in data assimilation. Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 5. ISSN 2297-4687 doi: 10.3389/fams.2019.00048

Van Leeuwen, P. J., Künsch, H. R., Nerger, L., Potthast, R. and Reich, S. (2019) Particle filters for high‐dimensional geoscience applications: a review. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145 (723). pp. 2335-2365. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.3551

Wainwright, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Marsham, J. H., Keane, R. J., Rowell, D. P., Finney, D. L., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2019) ‘Eastern African paradox’ rainfall decline due to shorter not less intense long rains. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2. 34. ISSN 2397-3722 doi: 10.1038/s41612-019-0091-7

Woolway, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0498-7968 and Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850 (2019) Worldwide alteration of lake mixing regimes in response to climate change. Nature Geoscience, 12. pp. 271-276. ISSN 1782-0908 doi: 10.1038/s41561-019-0322-x

Woolway, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0498-7968, Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Van Den Hoek, J., Azorin-Molina, C., Noges, P., Laas, A., Mackay, E. B. and Jones, I. D. (2019) Northern Hemisphere atmospheric stilling accelerates lake thermal responses to a warming world. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (21). pp. 11983-11992. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2019GL082752

Woolway, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0498-7968, Weyhenmeyer, G. A., Schmid, M., Dokulil, M. T., de Eyto, E., Maberly, S. C., May, L. and Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850 (2019) Substantial increase in minimum lake surface temperatures under climate change. Climatic Change, 155 (1). pp. 81-94. ISSN 0165-0009 doi: 10.1007/s10584-019-02465-y

Zhan, C., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Liang, S., Wang, D. and Song, Z. (2019) Evaluation of five satellite top-of-atmosphere albedo products over land. Remote Sensing, 11 (24). 2919. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: 10.3390/rs11242919

2018

Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Liu, C. (2018) Overview of climate models and tropical extremes. In: Vuruputur, V., Sukhatme, J., Murtugudde, R. and Roca, R. (eds.) Tropical Extremes: Natural Variability and Trends. Elsevier, pp. 139-164. ISBN 9780128092484

Asfaw, D., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Brown, M., Nicklin, K. J., Otu-Larbi, F., Pinnington, E., Challinor, A., Maidment, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259 and Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 (2018) TAMSAT-ALERT v1: a new framework for agricultural decision support. Geoscientific Model Development, 11 (6). pp. 2353-2371. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: 10.5194/gmd-11-2353-2018

Bannister, R. N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6846-8297, Migliorini, S., Rudd, A. C. and Baker, L. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488 (2018) Methods of investigating forecast error sensitivity to ensemble size in a limited-area convection-permitting ensemble. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions. 260. ISSN 1991-962X doi: 10.5194/gmd-2017-260

Berry, D. I., Corlett, G. K., Embury, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1661-7828 and Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850 (2018) Stability assessment of the (A)ATSR sea surface temperature climate dataset from the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative. Remote Sensing, 10 (1). 126. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: 10.3390/rs10010126

Block, T., Embacher, S., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850 and Donlon, C. (2018) High performance software framework for the calculation of satellite-to-satellite data matchups (MMS version 1.2). Geoscientific Model Development, 11 (6). pp. 2419-2427. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: 10.5194/gmd-11-2419-2018

Bulgin, C. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4368-7386, Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Ghent, D., Klueser, L., Popp, T., Poulsen, C. and Sogacheva, L. (2018) Quantifying uncertainty in satellite-retrieved land surface temperature from cloud detection errors. Remote Sensing, 10 (4). 616. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: 10.3390/rs10040616

Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600, Bocquet, M., Bertino, L. and Evensen, G. (2018) Data assimilation in the geosciences: an overview of methods, issues, and perspectives. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 9 (5). e535. ISSN 1757-7799 doi: 10.1002/wcc.535

Chavez-Arroyo, R., Fernades-Correia, P., Lozano-Galiana, S., Sanz-Rodrigo, J., Amezcua, J. and Probst, O. (2018) A novel approach to statistical-dynamical downscaling for long-term wind resource predictions. Meteorological Applications, 25 (2). pp. 171-183. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: 10.1002/met.1678

Cooper, E. S., Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Garcia-Pintado, J., Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 and Smith, P. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4570-4127 (2018) Observation impact, domain length and parameter estimation in data assimilation for flood forecasting. Environmental Modelling and Software, 104. pp. 199-214. ISSN 1364-8152 doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.03.013

Dunning, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2018) Later wet seasons with more intense rainfall over Africa under future climate change. Journal of Climate, 31. pp. 9719-9738. ISSN 0894-8755 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0102.1

Feng, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4143-107X, Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374 and Boisseson, E. (2018) Coupling of surface air and sea surface temperatures in the CERA-20C reanalysis. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (710). pp. 195-207. ISSN 0035-9009 doi: 10.1002/qj.3194

Flamant, C., Knippertz, P., Fink, A. H., Akpo, A., Brooks, B., Chiu, C. J., Coe, H., Danuor, S., Evans, M., Jegede, O., Kalthoff, N., Konaré, A., Liousse, C., Lohou, F., Mari, C., Schlager, H., Schwarzenboeck, A., Adler, B., Amekudzi, L., Aryee, J., Ayoola, M., Batenburg, A. M., Bessardon, G., Borrmann, S., Brito, J., Bower, K., Burnet, F., Catoire, V., Colomb, A., Denjean, C., Fosu-Amankwah, K., Hill, P. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9745-2120, Lee, J., Lothon, M., Maranan, M., Marsham, J., Meynadier, R., Ngamini, J.-B., Rosenberg, P., Sauer, D., Smith, V., Stratmann, G., Taylor, J. W., Voigt, C. and Yoboué, V. (2018) The Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa field campaign: overview and research highlights. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99 (1). pp. 83-104. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0256.1

Fowler, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3650-3948, Dance, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338 and Waller, J. (2018) On the interaction of observation and prior error correlations in data assimilation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (710). pp. 48-62. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.3183

Global Sea Level Budget Group, W. C. R. P., Cazenave, A. and Merchant, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850 (2018) Global sea level budget 1993-present. Earth System Science Data, 10 (3). pp. 1551-1590. ISSN 1866-3516 doi: 10.5194/essd-2018-53

Grudzien, C., Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600 and Bocquet, M. (2018) Asymptotic forecast uncertainty and the unstable subspace in the presence of additive model error. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 6 (4). pp. 1335-1363. ISSN 2166-2525 doi: 10.1137/17M114073X

Grudzien, C., Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600 and Bocquet, M. (2018) Chaotic dynamics and the role of covariance inflation for reduced rank Kalman filters with model error. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 25 (3). pp. 633-648. ISSN 1023-5809 doi: 10.5194/npg-25-633-2018

Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374 (2018) Ocean reanalyses. In: Chassignet, E. P., Pascual, A., Tintoré, J. and Verron, J. (eds.) New Frontiers in Operational Oceanography. GODAE OceanView. ISBN 9781720549970 doi: 10.17125/gov2018

Hill, P. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9745-2120, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Chiu, J. C., Bodas-Salcedo, A. and Knippertz, P. (2018) Quantifying the contribution of different cloud types to the radiation budget in southern West Africa. Journal of Climate, 31. pp. 5273-5291. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0586.1

Hill, P. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9745-2120, Chiu, J. C., Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Chern, J.-D. (2018) Characterizing the radiative effect of rain using a global ensemble of cloud resolving simulations. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 10 (10). pp. 2453-2470. ISSN 19422466 doi: 10.1029/2018MS001415

Hogan, R. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3180-5157, Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 and Braghiere, R. (2018) Fast matrix treatment of 3-D radiative transfer in vegetation canopies: SPARTACUS-Vegetation 1.1. Geoscientific Model Development, 11 (1). pp. 339-350. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: 10.5194/gmd-11-339-2018

Hyder, P., Edwards, J. M., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Hewitt, H. T., Bracegirdle, T. J., Gregory, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644, Wood, R. A., Meijers, A. J. S., Mulcahy, J., Field, P., Furtado, K., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Williams, K. D., Copsey, D., Josey, S. A., Liu, C., Roberts, C. D., Sanchez, C., Ridley, J., Thorpe, L., Hardiman, S. C., Mayer, M., Berry, D. I. and Belcher, S. E. (2018) Critical Southern Ocean climate model biases traced to atmospheric model cloud errors. Nature Communications, 9 (1). 3625. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-05634-2

John, V. O., Shi, L., Chung, E.-S., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Buehler, S. A. and Soden, B. J. (2018) Upper tropospheric humidity [in "State of the Climate in 2017"]. In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99 (8). American Meteorological Society, S27-S28. doi: 10.1175/2018bamsstateoftheclimate.1

Liu, C. and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2018) Unrealistic increases in wind speed explain reduced eastern Pacific heat flux in reanalyses. Journal of Climate, 31 (8). pp. 2981-2993. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0642.1

Liu, M., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Guan, L. and Mittaz, J. P. D. (2018) Inter-calibration of HY-1B/COCTS thermal infrared channels with MetOp-A/IASI. Remote Sensing, 10 (8). 1173. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: 10.3390/rs10081173

Mason, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9699-8850, Chiu, C. J., Hogan, R. J., Moisseev, D. and Kneifel, S. (2018) Retrievals of riming and snow density from vertically‐pointing Doppler radars. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123 (24). pp. 13807-13834. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: 10.1029/2018JD028603

Mignac, D., Ferreira, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3243-9774 and Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374 (2018) South Atlantic meridional transports from NEMO-based model simulations and reanalyses. Ocean Science, 14 (1). pp. 53-68. ISSN 1812-0784 doi: 10.5194/os-14-53-2018

Oljača, L., Bröcker, J. and Kuna, T. (2018) Almost sure error bounds for data assimilation in dissipative systems with unbounded observation noise. SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems, 17 (4). pp. 2882-2914. ISSN 1536-0040 doi: 10.1137/17M1162305

Otkin, J. A., Potthast, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6794-2500 and Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568 (2018) Nonlinear bias correction for satellite data assimilation using Taylor series polynomials. Monthly Weather Review, 146 (1). pp. 263-285. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: 10.1175/mwr-d-17-0171.1

Pearson, K., Merchant, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Embury, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1661-7828 and Donlon, C. (2018) The role of Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 channels within an optimal estimation scheme for sea surface temperature. Remote Sensing, 10 (1). 90. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: 10.3390/rs10010090 (special issue 'Sea Surface Temperature Retrievals from Remote Sensing')

Pinheiro, F. R., Van Leeuwen, P. J. and Parlitz, U. (2018) An ensemble framework for time delay synchronisation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (711(partB)). pp. 305-316. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.3204

Pinnington, E., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2018) Impact of remotely sensed soil moisture and precipitation on soil moisture prediction in a data assimilation system with the JULES land surface model. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22 (4). pp. 2575-2588. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: 10.5194/hess-22-2575-2018

Prettyman, J., Kuna, T. and Livina, V. (2018) A novel scaling indicator of early warning signals helps anticipate tropical cyclones. Europhysics Letters, 121 (1). 10002. ISSN 0295-5075 doi: 10.1209/0295-5075/121/10002

Pulido, M., Tandeo, P., Bocquet, M., Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600 and Lucini, M. (2018) Stochastic parameterization identification using ensemble Kalman filtering combined with maximum likelihood methods. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 70 (1). pp. 1-17. ISSN 1600-0870 doi: 10.1080/16000870.2018.1442099

Rabatel, M., Rampal, P., Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600, Bertino, L. and Jones, C. K. R. T. (2018) Impact of rheology on probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories: application for search and rescue operations in the Arctic. The Cryosphere, 12 (3). pp. 935-953. ISSN 1994-0424 doi: 10.5194/tc-12-935-2018

Rasmussen, T. A. S., Hoyer, J. L., Ghent, D., Bulgin, C. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4368-7386, Dybkjaer, G., Ribergaard, M. H., Nielsen-Englyst, P. and Madsen, K. S. (2018) Impact of assimilation of sea-ice surface temperatures on a coupled ocean and sea-ice model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 123 (4). pp. 2440-2460. ISSN 2169-9291 doi: 10.1002/2017JC013481

Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Archibald, A., Cooper, F., Christensen, M., Gray, L. J., Holliday, N. P., Macintosh, C., McMillan, M., Moat, B., Russo, M., Tilling, R., Carslaw, K., Desbruyères, D., Embury, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1661-7828, Feltham, D. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2289-014X, Grosvenor, D. P., Josey, S., King, B., Lewis, A., McCarthy, G. D., Merchant, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, New, A. L., O'Reilly, C. H., Osprey, S. M., Read, K., Scaife, A., Shepherd, A., Sinha, B., Smeed, D., Smith, D., Ridout, A., Woollings, T. and Yang, M. (2018) Recent multivariate changes in the North Atlantic climate system, with a focus on 2005-2016. International Journal of Climatology, 38 (12). pp. 5050-5076. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: 10.1002/joc.5815

Smith, P. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4570-4127, Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568 and Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 (2018) Treating sample covariances for use in strongly coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (1). pp. 445-454. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1002/2017gl075534

Tabeart, J. M., Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Haben, S. A., Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568, Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 and Waller, J. A. (2018) The conditioning of least squares problems in variational data assimilation. Numerical Linear Algebra with Applications, 25 (5). e2165. ISSN 1099-1506 doi: 10.1002/nla.2165

Vetra-Carvalho, S., Van Leeuwen, P. J., Nerger, L., Bart, A., Altaf, M. U., Brasseur, P., Kirchgessner, P. and Beckers, J.-M. (2018) State-of-the-art stochastic data assimilation methods for high-dimensional non-Gaussian problems. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 70 (1). 1445364. ISSN 1600-0870 doi: 10.1080/16000870.2018.1445364

Waller, J. A., Garcia-Pintado, J., Mason, D. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338 and Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 (2018) Technical note: assessment of observation quality for data assimilation in flood models. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22. pp. 3983-3992. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: 10.5194/hess-22-3983-2018

Young, M. P., Chiu, J. C., Williams, C. J. R., Stein, T. H. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9215-5397, Stengel, M., Fielding, M. D. and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2018) Spatio-temporal variability of warm rain events over southern West Africa from geostationary satellite observations for climate monitoring and model evaluation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (716). pp. 2311-2330. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.3372

Zhang, H., Beggs, H., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Wang, X. H., Majewski, L., Kiss, A. E., Rodriguez, J., Thorpe, L., Gentemann, C. and Brunke, M. (2018) Comparison of SST diurnal variation models over the Tropical Warm Pool region. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 123 (5). pp. 3467-3488. ISSN 2169-9291 doi: 10.1029/2017JC013517

Zhu, M., Van Leeuwen, P. J. and Zhang, W. (2018) Estimating model error covariances using particle filters. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (713). pp. 1310-1320. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.3132

2017

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2017) Decadal climate variability and the global energy balance. Past Global Changes, 25 (1). pp. 20-24. ISSN 2411-605X doi: 10.22498/pages.25.1.20

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2017) Global energy budget: elusive origin of warming slowdown. Nature Climate Change, 7 (5). pp. 316-317. ISSN 1758-678X doi: 10.1038/nclimate3282

Bentamy, A., Piollé, J. F., Grouazel, A., Danielson, R., Gulev, S., Paul, F., Azelmat, H., Mathieu, P. P., von Schuckmann, K., Sathyendranath, S., Evers-King, H., Esau, I., Johannessen, J. A., Clayson, C. A., Pinker, R. T., Grodsky, S. A., Bourassa, M., Smith, S. R., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Valdivieso, M., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Chapron, B., Anderson, A., Hollmann, R. and Josey, S. A. (2017) Review and assessment of latent and sensible heat flux accuracy over the global oceans. Remote Sensing of Environment, 201. pp. 196-218. ISSN 0034-4257 doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2017.08.016

Bocquet, M. and Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600 (2017) Four-dimensional ensemble variational data assimilation and the unstable subspace. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 69 (1). 1304504. ISSN 1600-0870 doi: 10.1080/16000870.2017.1304504

Bocquet, M., Gurumoorthy, K. S., Apte, A., Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600, Grudzien, C. and Jones, C. K. R. T. (2017) Degenerate Kalman filter error covariances and their convergence onto the unstable subspace. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 5 (1). pp. 304-333. ISSN 2166-2525 doi: 10.1137/16M1068712

Carella, G., Morris, A. K. R., Pascal, R. W., Yelland, M. J., Berry, D. I., Morak-Bozzo, S., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850 and Kent, E. C. (2017) Measurements and models of the temperature change of water samples in Sea Surface Temperature buckets. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143 (706). pp. 2198-2209. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.3078

Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600, Bocquet, M., Hannart, A. and Ghil, M. (2017) Estimating model evidence using data assimilation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143 (703). pp. 866-880. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2972

Chevallier, M., Smith, G. C., Dupont, F., Lemieux, J.-F., Forget, G., Fujii, Y., Hernandez, F., Msadek, R., Peterson, K. A., Storto, A., Toyoda, T., Valdivieso, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1738-7016, Vernieres, G., Zuo, H., Balmaseda, M., Chang, Y.-S., Ferry, N., Garric, G., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Keeley, S., Kovach, R. M., Kuragano, T., Masina, S., Tang, Y., Tsujino, H. and Wang, X. (2017) Intercomparison of the Arctic sea ice cover in global ocean–sea ice reanalyses from the ORA-IP project. Climate Dynamics, 49 (3). pp. 1107-1136. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-2985-y

Cordoba, M., Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Kelly, G. A., Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 and Waller, J. A. (2017) Diagnosing atmospheric motion vector observation errors for an operational high resolution data assimilation system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143 (702). pp. 333-341. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2925

Delahaies, S., Roulstone, I. and Nichols, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 (2017) Constraining DALECv2 using multiple data streams and ecological constraints: analysis and application. Geoscientific Model Development, 10 (7). pp. 2635-2650. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: 10.5194/gmd-10-2635-2017

Dunning, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2017) Identification of deficiencies in seasonal rainfall simulated by CMIP5 climate models. Environmental Research Letters, 12 (11). 114001. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa869e

Goodliff, M., Amezcua, J. and Van Leeuwen, P. J. (2017) A weak-constraint 4DEnsembleVar. Part II: experiments with larger models. Tellus A, 69 (1). 1271565. ISSN 1600-0870 doi: 10.1080/16000870.2016.1271565

Gurumoorthy, K. S., Grudzien, C., Apte, A., Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600 and Jones, C. K. R. T. (2017) Rank deficiency of Kalman error covariance matrices in linear time-varying system with deterministic evolution. SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization, 55 (2). pp. 741-759. ISSN 0363-0129 doi: 10.1137/15M1025839

John, V. O., Shi, L., Chung, E. -S., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Buehler, S. A. and Soden, B. J. (2017) Upper tropospheric humidity [in “State of the Climate in 2016”]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98 (8). S25-S26. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: 10.1175/2017BAMSStateoftheClimate.1

Kent, E. C., Kennedy, J. J., Smith, T. M., Hirahara, S., Huang, B., Kaplan, A., Parker, D. E., Atkinson, C. P., Berry, D. I., Carella, G., Fukuda, Y., Ishii, M., Jones, P. D., Lindgren, F., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Morak-Bozzo, S., Rayner, N. A., Venema, V., Yasui, S. and Zhang, H.-M. (2017) A call for new approaches to quantifying biases in observations of sea-surface temperature. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98 (8). pp. 1601-1616. ISSN 0003-0007 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00251.1

Lauer, A., Eyring, V., Righi, M., Buchwitz, M., Defourny, P., Evaldsson, M., Friedlingstein, P., de Jeu, R., de Leeuw, G., Loew, A., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Müller, B., Popp, T., Reuter, M., Sandven, S., Senftleben, D., Stengel, M., van Roozendael, M., Wenzel, S. and Willen, U. (2017) Benchmarking CMIP5 models with a subset of ESA CCI Phase 2 data using the ESMValTool. Remote Sensing of Environment, 203. pp. 9-39. ISSN 0034-4257 doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2017.01.007

Liu, C., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Mayer, M., Hyder, P., Loeb, N. G., Roberts, C. D., Valdivieso, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1738-7016, Edwards, J. M. and Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 (2017) Evaluation of satellite and reanalysis-based global net surface energy flux and uncertainty estimates. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 122 (12). pp. 6250-6272. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: 10.1002/2017JD026616

MacIntosh, C. R., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850 and von Schuckmann, K. (2017) Uncertainties in steric sea level change estimation during the satellite altimeter era: concepts and practices. Surveys in Geophysics, 38 (1). ISSN 0169-3298 doi: 10.1007/s10712-016-9387-x

Maidment, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Grimes, D., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Tarnavsky, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3403-0411, Young, M., Greatrex, H., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Stein, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9215-5397, Nkonde, E., Senkunda, S. and Alcántara, E. M. U. (2017) A new, long-term daily satellite-based rainfall dataset for operational monitoring in Africa. Scientific Data, 4. 170063. ISSN 2052-4463 doi: 10.1038/sdata.2017.63

Malavelle, F. F., Haywood, J. M., Jones, A., Gettelman, A., Clarisse, L., Bauduin, S., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Karset, I. H. H., Kristjánsson, J. E., Oreopoulos, L., Cho, N., Lee, D., Bellouin, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2109-9559, Boucher, O., Grosvenor, D. P., Carslaw, K. S., Dhomse, S., Mann, G. W., Schmidt, A., Coe, H., Hartley, M. E., Dalvi, M., Hill, A. A., Johnson, B. T., Johnson, C. E., Knight, J. R., O’Connor, F. M., Partridge, D. G., Stier, P., Myhre, G., Platnick, S., Stephens, G. L., Takahashi, H. and Thordarson, T. (2017) Strong constraints on aerosol–cloud interactions from volcanic eruptions. Nature, 546 (7659). pp. 485-491. ISSN 0028-0836 doi: 10.1038/nature22974

Masina, S., Storto, A., Ferry, N., Valdivieso, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1738-7016, Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Balmaseda, M., Zuo, H., Drevillon, M. and Parent, L. (2017) An ensemble of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses from the MyOcean project. Climate Dynamics, 49 (3). pp. 813-841. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2728-5

Mason, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9699-8850, Chiu, J. C., Hogan, R. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3180-5157 and Tian, L. (2017) Improved rain rate and drop size retrievals from airborne Doppler radar. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 17 (18). pp. 11567-11589. ISSN 1680-7324 doi: 10.5194/acp-17-11567-2017

Melia, N., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374 and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, (2017) Implications from opening Arctic sea routes. Foresight: Future of the Sea. Report. Government Office for Science, Gov.uk. pp39.

Melia, N., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Day, J. J. (2017) Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions. Environmental Research Letters, 12 (8). ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a60

Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Paul, F., Popp, T., Ablain, M., Bontemps, S., Defourny, P., Hollmann, R., Lavergne, T., Laeng, A., de Leeuw, G., Mittaz, J., Poulsen, C., Povey, A. C., Reuter, M., Sathyendranath, S., Sandven, S., Sofeiva, V. F. and Wagner, W. (2017) Uncertainty information in climate data records from Earth observation. Earth System Science Data, 9 (2). pp. 511-527. ISSN 1866-3516 doi: 10.5194/essd-9-511-2017

Meyssignac, B., Piecuch, C. G., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Racault, M.-F., Palanisamy, H., MacIntosh, C., Sathyendranath, S. and Brewin, R. (2017) Causes of the regional variability in observed sea level, sea surface temperature and ocean colour over the period 1993-2011. Surveys in Geophysics, 38 (1). pp. 187-215. ISSN 1573-0956 doi: 10.1007/s10712-016-9383-1

Mulholland, D. P., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Sparrow, S. N. and Wallom, D. (2017) Climate model forecast biases assessed with a perturbed physics ensemble. Climate Dynamics, 49 (5-6). pp. 1729-1746. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3407-x

Palmer, M. D., Roberts, C. D., Balmaseda, M., Chang, Y.-S., Chepurin, G., Ferry, N., Fujii, Y., Good, S. A., Guinehut, S., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Hernandez, F., Kohl, A., Lee, T., Martin, M. J., Masina, S., Masuda, S., Peterson, K. A., Storto, A., Toyoda, T., Valdivieso, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1738-7016, Vernieres, G., Wang, O. and Xue, Y. (2017) Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses. Climate Dynamics, 49 (3). pp. 909-930. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2801-0

Petrie, R. E., Bannister, R. N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6846-8297 and Cullen, M. J. P. (2017) The “ABC model”: a non-hydrostatic toy model for use in convective-scale data assimilation investigations. Geoscientific Model Development, 10. pp. 4419-4441. ISSN 1991-959X doi: 10.5194/gmd-10-4419-2017

Pinnington, E. M., Casella, E., Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568, Morison, J. I. L., Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220, Wilkinson, M. and Quaife, T. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 (2017) Understanding the effect of disturbance from selective felling on the carbon dynamics of a managed woodland by combining observations with model predictions. JGR-Biogeosciences, 122 (4). pp. 886-902. ISSN 2169-8961 doi: 10.1002/2017JG003760

Rollinson, C. R., Liu, Y., Raiho, A., Moore, D. J. P., McLachlan, J., Bishop, D. A., Dye, A., Matthes, J. H., Hessl, A., Hickler, T., Pederson, N., Poulter, B., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Schaefer, K., Steinkamp, J. and Dietze, M. C. (2017) Emergent climate and CO2 sensitivities of net primary productivity in ecosystem models do not agree with empirical data in temperate forests of eastern North America. Global Change Biology, 23 (7). pp. 2755-2767. ISSN 1354-1013 doi: 10.1111/gcb.13626

Shi, L., Alves, O., Wedd, R., Balmaseda, M. A., Chang, Y., Chepurin, G., Ferry, N., Fujyii, Y., Gaillard, F., Good, S. A., Guinehut, S., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Hernandez, F., Lee, T., Palmer, M., Peterson, K. A., Masuda, S., Storto, A., Toyoda, T., Valdivieso, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1738-7016, Vernieres, G., Wang, X. and Yin, Y. (2017) An assessment of upper ocean salinity content from the ocean reanalyses inter-comparison project (ORA-IP). Climate Dynamics, 49 (3). pp. 1009-1029. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2868-7

Smith, P. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4570-4127, Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568 and Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 (2017) Estimating forecast error covariances for strongly coupled atmosphere-ocean 4D-Var data assimilation. Monthly Weather Review, 145 (10). pp. 4011-4035. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0284.1

Storto, A., Masina, S., Balmaseda, M., Guinehut, S., Xue, Y., Szekely, T., Fukumori, I., Forget, G., Chang, Y.-S., Good, S. A., Kohl, A., Vernieres, G., Ferry, N., Peterson, K. A., Behringer, D., Ishii, M., Masuda, S., Fujii, Y., Toyoda, T., Yin, Y., Valdivieso, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1738-7016, Barnier, B., Boyer, T., Lee, T., Gourrion, J., Wang, O., Heimback, P., Rosati, A., Kovach, R., Hernandez, F., Martin, M. J., Kamachi, M., Kuragano, T., Mogensen, K., Alves, O., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374 and Wang, X. (2017) Steric sea level variability (1993-2010) in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses and objective analyses. Climate Dynamics, 49 (3). pp. 709-729. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2554-9

Thomas, C. M. and Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374 (2017) Using lagged covariances in data assimilation. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 69 (1). 1377589. ISSN 1600-0870 doi: 10.1080/16000870.2017.1377589

Toyoda, T., Fujii, Y., Kuragano, T., Kamachi, M., Ishikawa, Y., Masuda, S., Sato, K., Awaji, T., Hernandez, F., Ferry, N., Guinehut, S., Martin, M. J., Peterson, K. A., Good, S. A., Valdivieso, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1738-7016, Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Storto, A., Masina, S., Kohl, A., Zuo, H., Balmaseda, M., Yin, Y., Shi, L., Alves, O., Smith, G., Chang, Y.-S., Vernieres, G., Wang, X., Forget, G., Heimbach, P., Wang, O., Fukumori, I. and Lee, T. (2017) Intercomparison and validation of the mixed layer depth fields of global ocean syntheses. Climate Dynamics, 49 (3). pp. 753-773. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2637-7

Toyoda, T., Fujii, Y., Kuragano, T., Kosugi, N., Sasano, D., Kamachi, M., Ishikawa, Y., Masuda, S., Sato, K., Awaji, T., Hernandez, F., Ferry, N., Guinehut, S., Martin, M., Peterson, K. A., Good, S. A., Valdivieso, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1738-7016, Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Storto, A., Masina, S., Kohl, A., Yin, Y., Shi, L., Alves, O., Smith, G., Chang, Y.-S., Vernieres, G., Wang, X., Forget, G., Heimbach, P., Wang, O., Fukumori, I., Lee, T., Zuo, H. and Balmaseda, M. (2017) Interannual-decadal variability of wintertime mixed layer depths in the North Pacific detected by an ensemble of ocean syntheses. Climate Dynamics, 49 (3). pp. 891-907. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2762-3

Valdivieso, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1738-7016, Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Balmaseda, M., Chang, Y.-S., Drevillon, M., Ferry, N., Fujii, Y., Kohl, A., Storto, A., Toyoda, T., Wang, X., Waters, J., Xue, Y., Yin, Y., Barnier, B., Hernandez, F., Kumar, A., Lee, T., Masina, S. and Peterson, K. A. (2017) An assessment of air-sea heat fluxes from ocean and coupled reanalyses. Climate Dynamics, 49 (3). pp. 983-1008. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2843-3

Van Leeuwen, P. J. (2017) Particle Filters for nonlinear data assimilation in high-dimensional systems. Annales de la faculté des sciences de Toulouse Mathématiques, 26 (4). pp. 1051-1085. ISSN 0240-2963 doi: 10.5802/afst.1560

Walker, A. P., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, van Bodegom, P. M., De Kauwe, M. G., Keenan, T. F., Joiner, J., Lomas, M. R., MacBean, N., Chongang, X., Xiaojuan, Y. and Woodward, F. I. (2017) The impact of alternative trait-scaling hypotheses for the maximum photosynthetic carboxylation rate (Vcmax) on global gross primary production. New Phytologist, 215 (4). pp. 1370-1386. ISSN 1469-8137 doi: 10.1111/nph.14623

Williams, K., Gornall, J., Harper, A., Wiltshire, A., Hemming, D., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Arkebauer, T. and Scoby, D. (2017) Evaluation of JULES-crop performance against site observations of irrigated maize from Mead, Nebraska. Geoscientific Model Development, 10 (3). pp. 1291-1320. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: 10.5194/gmd-10-1291-2017

2016

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Lavers, D. A. and Champion, A. J. (2016) Diagnosing links between atmospheric moisture and extreme daily precipitation over the UK. International Journal of Climatology, 36 (9). pp. 3191-3206. ISSN 1097-0088 doi: 10.1002/joc.4547

Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Tarnavsky, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3403-0411, Maidment, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Greatrex, H., Mookerjee, A., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 and Brown, M. (2016) The use of remotely sensed rainfall for managing drought risk: a case study of weather index insurance in Zambia. Remote Sensing, 8 (4). 342. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: 10.3390/rs8040342

Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600 and Vannitsem, S. (2016) Deterministic treatment of model error in geophysical data assimilation. In: Ancona, F., Cannarsa, P., Jones, C. and Portaluri, A. (eds.) Mathematical Paradigms of Climate Science. Springer INdAM Series, 15. Springer, pp. 175-213. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-39092-5_9

Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600, Guemas, V., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Volpi, D. and Asif, M. (2016) Sources of skill in near-term climate prediction: generating initial conditions. Climate Dynamics, 47 (12). pp. 3693-3712. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3036-4

Dunning, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Black, E. C. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2016) The onset and cessation of seasonal rainfall over Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121 (19). pp. 11405-11424. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: 10.1002/2016JD025428

Fowler, A. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3650-3948 and Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568 (2016) An idealized study of coupled atmosphere-ocean 4D-Var in the presence of model error. Monthly Weather Review, 144 (10). pp. 4007-4030. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0420.1

Hannart, A., Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600, Bocquet, M., Ghil, M., Naveau, P., Pulido, M., Ruiz, J. and Tandeo, P. (2016) DADA: data assimilation for the detection and attribution of weather and climate-related events. Climatic Change, 136 (2). pp. 155-174. ISSN 0165-0009 doi: 10.1007/s10584-016-1595-3

Hill, P. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9745-2120, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Chiu, J. C. and Stein, T. H. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9215-5397 (2016) A multi-satellite climatology of clouds, radiation and precipitation in southern West Africa and comparison to climate models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121 (18). 10,857-10,879. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: 10.1002/2016JD025246

Häusler, M., Silva, J. M. N., Cerasoli, S., Lopez Saldana, G. and Pereira, J. M. C. (2016) Modelling spectral reflectance of open cork oak woodland: a simulation analysis of the effects of vegetation structure and background. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 37 (3). pp. 492-515. ISSN 0143-1161 doi: 10.1080/01431161.2015.1134847

Lang, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1904-3700, Van Leeuwen, P. J. and Browne, P. (2016) A systematic method of parameterisation estimation using data assimilation. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 68 (1). 29012. ISSN 1600-0870 doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v68.29012

Layden, A., MacCallum, S. N. and Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850 (2016) Determining lake surface water temperatures worldwide using a tuned one-dimensional lake model (FLake, v1). Geoscientific Model Development, 9 (6). pp. 2167-2189. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: 10.5194/gmd-9-2167-2016

Loeb, N. G., Wang, H., Cheng, A., Kato, S., Fasullo, J. T., Xu, K.-M. and Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2016) Observational constraints on atmospheric and oceanic cross-equatorial heat transports: revisiting the precipitation asymmetry problem in climate models. Climate Dynamics, 46 (9-10). pp. 3239-3257. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2766-z

Melia, N., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374 and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2016) Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (18). pp. 9720-9728. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: 10.1002/2016GL069315

Mulholland, D. P., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374 and Balmaseda, M. A. (2016) Improving seasonal forecasting through tropical ocean bias corrections. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (700). pp. 2797-2807. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2869

Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 (2016) Correlated observations in data assimilation. In: Mathematical and Algorithmic Aspects of Data Assimilation in the Geosciences. Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut, Oberwolfach Germany, pp. 35-37. doi: 10.4171/OWR/2016/47

Pazó, D., Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600 and López, J. M. (2016) Data assimilation by delay-coordinate nudging. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (696). pp. 1290-1299. ISSN 0035-9009 doi: 10.1002/qj.2732

Pinnington, E. M., Casella, E., Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568, Morison, J. I. L., Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220, Wilkinson, M. and Quaife, T. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 (2016) Investigating the role of prior and observation error correlations in improving a model forecast of forest carbon balance using Four Dimensional Variational data assimilation. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 228-229. pp. 299-314. ISSN 0168-1923 doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.07.006

Politi, E., MacCallum, S., Cutler, M. E. J., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Rowan, J. S. and Dawson, T. P. (2016) Selection of a network of large lakes and reservoirs suitable for global environmental change analysis using Earth Observation. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 37 (13). pp. 3042-3060. ISSN 0143-1161 doi: 10.1080/01431161.2016.1192702

Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 and Cripps, E. (2016) Bayesian analysis of uncertainty in the GlobCover 2009 land cover product at climate model grid scale. Remote Sensing, 8 (4). 314. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: 10.3390/rs8040314

Sobrino, J. A., Jiménez-Muñoz, J. C., Sòria, G., Ruescas, A. B., Danne, O., Brockmann, C., Ghent, D., Remedios, J., North, P., Merchant, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Berger, M., Mathieu, P. P. and Göttsche, F.-M. (2016) Synergistic use of MERIS and AATSR as a proxy for estimating Land Surface Temperature from Sentinel-3 data. Remote Sensing of Environment, 179. pp. 149-161. ISSN 0034-4257 doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2016.03.035

Zhu, M., Van Leeuwen, P. J. and Amezcua, J. (2016) Implicit equal-weights particle filter. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 0035-9009 doi: 10.1002/qj.2784

Zveryaev, I. I., Zahn, M. and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2016) Interannual variability in the summertime hydrological cycle over European regions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121 (10). pp. 5381-5394. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: 10.1002/2015JD024425

2015

Ades, M. and Van Leeuwen, P. (2015) The effect of the equivalent-weights particle filter on dynamical balance in a primitive equation model. Monthly Weather Review, 143 (2). pp. 581-596. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00050.1

Balmaseda, M. A., Hernandez, F., Storto, A., Palmer, M. D., Alves, O., Shi, L., Smith, G. C., Toyoda, T., Valdivieso, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1738-7016, Barnier, B., Behringer, D., Boyer, T., Chang, Y.S., Chepurin, G. A., Ferry, N., Forget, G., Fujii, Y., Good, S., Guinehut, S., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Ishikawa, Y., Keeley, S., Kohl, A., Lee, T., Martin, M. J., Masina, S., Masuda, S., Meyssignac, B., Mogensen, K., Parent, L., Peterson, K. A., Tang, Y. M., Yin, Y., Vernieres, G., Wang, X., Waters, J., Wedd, R., Wang, O., Xue, Y., Chevallier, M., Lemieux, J. F., Dupont, F., Kuragano, T., Kamachi, M., Awaji, T., Caltabiano, A., Wilmer-Becker, K. and Gaillard, F. (2015) The Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison project (ORA-IP). Journal of Operational Oceanography, 8 (sup1). s80-s97. ISSN 1755-8778 doi: 10.1080/1755876X.2015.1022329

Bannister, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6846-8297 (2015) How is the balance of a forecast ensemble affected by adaptive and non-adaptive localization schemes? Monthly Weather Review, 143 (9). pp. 3680-3699. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00379.1

Bonan, B., Baines, M. J., Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 and Partridge, D. (2015) A moving point approach to model shallow ice sheets: a study case with radially-symmetrical ice sheets. The Cryosphere Discussions, 9 (4). pp. 4237-4270. ISSN 1994-0432 doi: 10.5194/tcd-9-4237-2015

Buehner, M., Gelaro, R., Alves, O., Dee, D., Kalnay, E., Van Leeuwen, P. J., Lorenc, A., Miyoshi, T., Saunders, R. and Schiller, A. (2015) Data assimilation methods and applications. In: Brunet, G., Jones, S. and Ruti, P.M. (eds.) Seamless prediction of the earth system: from minutes to months. World Meteorological Organization. ISBN 9789263111562

Hegerl, G. C., Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Ingram, W. J., Polson, D., Trenberth, K. E., Chadwick, R. S., Arkin, P. A., Sarojini, B. B., Becker, A., Dai, A., Durack, P. J., Easterling, D., Fowler, H. J., Kendon, E. J., Huffman, G. J., Liu, C., Marsh, R., New, M., Osborn, T. J., Skliris, N., Stott, P. A., Vidale, P.-L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460, Wijffels, S. E., Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Willett, K. M. and Zhang, X. (2015) Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96 (7). pp. 1097-1115. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00212.1

Knippertz, P., Coe, H., Chiu, J. C., Evans, M. J., Fink, A. H., Kalthoff, N., Liousse, C., Mari, C., Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Brooks, B., Danour, S., Flamant, C., Jegede, O. O., Lohou, F. and Marsham, J. H. (2015) The DACCIWA project: dynamics-aerosol-chemistry-cloud interactions in West Africa. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96 (9). pp. 1451-1460. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00108.1

Layden, A., Merchant, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850 and MacCallum, S. (2015) Global climatology of surface water temperatures of large lakes by remote sensing. International Journal of Climatology, 35 (15). pp. 4464-4479. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: 10.1002/joc.4299

Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, de Leeuw, G. and Wagner, W. (2015) Selecting algorithms for Earth observation of climate within the European Space Agency Climate Change initiative: introduction to a special issue. Remote Sensing of Environment, 162. pp. 239-241. ISSN 0034-4257 doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2015.02.017

Mitchell, L. and Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600 (2015) Accounting for model error due to unresolved scales within ensemble Kalman filtering. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (689). pp. 1417-1428. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2451

Mulholland, D., Laloyaux, P., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374 and Balmaseda, M. A. (2015) Origin and impact of initialisation shocks in coupled atmosphere-ocean forecasts. Monthly Weather Review, 143 (11). pp. 4631-4644. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0076.1

Nichols, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 and Hodyss, D. (2015) Understanding the error of representation. In: Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis and Data Assimilation in Meteorology and Oceanography, 1-5 June 2015, Stonewall Resort Roanoke, West Virginia, USA.

Raanes, P. N., Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600 and Bertino, L. (2015) Extending the square root method to account for additive forecast noise in ensemble methods. Monthly Weather Review, 143 (10). pp. 3857-3873. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00375.1

Smith, D. M., Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Coward, A. C., Eade, R., Hyder, P., Liu, C., Loeb, N. G., Palmer, M. D., Roberts, C. D. and Scaife, A. A. (2015) Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (4). pp. 1205-1213. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1002/2014GL062669

Smith, P. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4570-4127, Fowler, A. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3650-3948 and Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568 (2015) Exploring strategies for coupled 4D-Var data assimilation using an idealised atmosphere-ocean model. Tellus A, 67. 27025. ISSN 1600-0870 doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v67.27025

Van Leeuwen, P. (2015) Aspects of particle filtering in high-dimensional spaces. In: Ravela, S. and Sandu, A. (eds.) Dynamic data-driven environmental systems science. Lecture notes in computer science, 8964. Springer, Heidelberg, pp. 251-262. ISBN 9783319251370 doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-25138-7

Van Leeuwen, P. J., Cheng, Y. and Reich, S. (2015) Nonlinear data assimilation. Frontiers in Applied Dynamical Systems: Reviews and Tutorials, 2. Springer. ISBN 9783319183466

Weber, R. J. T., Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600 and Doblas-Reyes, F. J. (2015) Linking the anomaly initialization approach to the mapping paradigm: a proof-of-concept study. Monthly Weather Review, 143 (11). pp. 4695-4713. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00398.1

Wedd, R., Stringer, M. and Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374 (2015) Argo real-time quality control intercomparison. Journal of Operational Oceanography, 8 (2). pp. 108-122. ISSN 1755-8778 doi: 10.1080/1755876X.2015.1087186

2014

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Liu, C., Loeb, N. G., Palmer, M. D., Roberts, M., Smith, D. and Vidale, P.-L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 (2014) Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985-2012. Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (15). pp. 5588-5597. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1002/2014GL060962

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Liu, C., Zahn, M., Lavers, D. A., Koukouvagias, E. and Bodas-Salcedo, A. (2014) Physically consistent responses of the global atmospheric hydrological cycle in models and observations. Surveys in Geophysics, 35 (3). pp. 533-552. ISSN 1573-0956 doi: 10.1007/s10712-012-9213-z

Bingham, R. J., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374 and Lea, D. J. (2014) How well can we measure the ocean’s mean dynamic topography from space? Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 119 (6). pp. 3336-3356. ISSN 2169-9291 doi: 10.1002/2013JC009354

Blower, J., Alegre, R., Bennett, V. L., Clifford, D., Kershaw, P. J., Lawrence, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9262-7860, Lewis, J., Marsh, K., Nagni, M., O'Neill, A. and Phipps, R. (2014) Understanding climate data through commentary metadata: the CHARMe project. Communications in Computer and Information Science, 416. pp. 28-39. ISSN 1865-0929 doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-08425-1_4 (Theory and Practice of Digital Libraries -- TPDL 2013 Selected Workshops)

Browne, P. A., Charlton-Perez, C. and Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338 (2014) RMetS special interest group meeting: high resolution data assimilation. Atmospheric Science Letters, 15 (4). pp. 354-357. ISSN 1530-261X doi: 10.1002/asl2.512

Burston, R., Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Astin, I. and Jayachandran, P. T. (2014) Automated identification and tracking of polar-cap plasma patches at solar minimum. Annales Geophysicae, 32. pp. 197-206. ISSN 1432-0576 doi: 10.5194/angeo-32-197-2014

Carrassi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0722-5600, Weber, R. J. T., Gumeas, V., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Asif, M. and Volpi, D. (2014) Full-field and anomaly initialization using a low-order climate model: a comparison and proposals for advanced formulations. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 21 (2). pp. 521-537. ISSN 1023-5809 doi: 10.5194/npg-21-521-2014

Clifford, D., Blower, J., Alegre, R., Phipps, R., Bennett, V. and Kershaw, P. (2014) Annotating climate data with commentary: the CHARMe project. In: Big Data from Space (BiDS'14), pp. 251-254.

Dey, S. R. A., Leoncini, G., Roberts, N. M., Plant, R. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8808-0022 and Migliorini, S. (2014) A spatial view of ensemble spread in convection permitting ensembles. Monthly Weather Review, 142 (11). pp. 4091-4107. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00172.1

Field, P. R., Cotton, R. J., McBeath, K., Lock, A. P., Webster, S. and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2014) Improving a convection-permitting model simulation of a cold air outbreak. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140 (678). pp. 124-138. ISSN 00359009 doi: 10.1002/qj.2116

Hermanson, L., Dunstone, N., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Smith, D. and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2014) A novel transport assimilation method for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26°N. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140 (685). pp. 2563-2572. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2321

Liu, C., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Brooks, M. and Milton, S. (2014) Comparing tropical precipitation simulated by the Met Office NWP and climate models with satellite observations. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 53 (1). pp. 200-214. ISSN 1558-8424 doi: 10.1175/JAMC-D-13-082.1

Loew, A., van Bodegom, P. M., Widlowski, J.-L., Otto, J., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Pinty, B. and Raddatz, T. (2014) Do we (need to) care about canopy radiation schemes in DGVMs? Caveats and potential impacts. Biogeosciences, 11 (7). pp. 1873-1897. ISSN 1726-4189 doi: 10.5194/bg-11-1873-2014

Macdonald, M., Anderson, P., Carrea, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3280-2767, Dobke, B., Embury, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1661-7828, Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850 and Bensi, P. (2014) Concepts for a geostationary-like polar missions. In: Sensors, Systems, and Next-Generation Satellites XVIII, September 22, 2014, Amsterdam, Netherlands. (Proc. SPIE 9241, Sensors, Systems, and Next-Generation Satellites XVIII, 92411B)

Maidment, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Grimes, D., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Tarnavsky, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3403-0411, Stringer, M., Hewison, T., Roebeling, R. and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2014) The 30-year TAMSAT African rainfall climatology and time-series (TARCAT) dataset. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 119 (18). pp. 10619-10644. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: 10.1002/2014JD021927

Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850, Embury, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1661-7828, Roberts-Jones, J., Fiedler, E., Bulgin, C. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4368-7386, Corlett, G. K., Good, S., McLaren, A., Rayner, N., Morak-Bozzo, S. and Donlon, C. (2014) Sea surface temperature datasets for climate applications from Phase 1 of the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (SST CCI). Geoscience Data Journal, 1 (2). pp. 179-191. ISSN 2049-6060 doi: 10.1002/gdj3.20

Pearson, K. J., Lister, G. M. S., Birch, C. E., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Hogan, R. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3180-5157 and Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 (2014) Modelling the diurnal cycle of tropical convection across the "Grey Zone". Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140 (679). pp. 491-499. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2145

Pearson, K. J., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 and Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2014) Can a climate model reproduce extreme regional precipitation events over England and Wales? Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (689). pp. 1466-1472. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2428

Roberts, J. F., Champion, A. J., Dawkins, L. C., Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Stephenson, D. B., Stringer, M. A., Thornton, H. E. and Youngman, B. D. (2014) The XWS open access catalogue of extreme European windstorms from 1979 to 2012. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 14. pp. 2487-2501. ISSN 1561-8633 doi: 10.5194/nhess-14-2487-2014

Schröder, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2351-4306, Feltham, D. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2289-014X, Flocco, D. and Tsamados, M. (2014) September Arctic sea-ice minimum predicted by spring melt-pond fraction. Nature Climate Change, 4 (5). pp. 353-357. ISSN 1758-6798 doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2203

Skliris, N., Marsh, R., Josey, S. A., Good, S. A., Liu, C. and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2014) Salinity changes in the world ocean since 1950 in relation to changing surface freshwater fluxes. Climate Dynamics, 43 (3-4). pp. 709-736. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2131-7

Stewart, L. M., Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220, Eyre, J. R. and Cameron, J. (2014) Estimating interchannel observation-error correlations for IASI radiance data in the Met Office system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140 (681). pp. 1236-1244. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2211

Tarnavsky, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3403-0411, Grimes, D., Maidment, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Stringer, M., Chadwick, R. and Kayitakire, F. (2014) Extension of the TAMSAT satellite-based rainfall monitoring over Africa and from 1983 to present. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 53 (12). pp. 2805-2822. ISSN 1558-8424 doi: 10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0016.1

Tsamados, M., Feltham, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2289-014X, Schroeder, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2351-4306, Flocco, D., Farell, S., Kurtz, N., Laxon, S. and Bacon, S. (2014) Impact of variable atmospheric and oceanic form drag on simulations of Arctic sea ice. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 44 (5). pp. 1329-1353. ISSN 0022-3670 doi: 10.1175/JPO-D-13-0215.1

Valdivieso, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1738-7016, Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Zuo, H. and Lea, D. (2014) Freshwater and heat transports from global ocean synthesis. Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, 119 (1). pp. 394-409. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: 10.1002/2013JC009357

Van Leeuwen, P. (2014) Particle filters for the geosciences. In: Advanced data assimilation for Geosciences : lecture notes of the Les Houches School of Physics: special issue, June 2012. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 291-318. ISBN 9780198723844

Waller, J. A., Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568, Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 and Eyre, J. R. (2014) Representativity error for temperature and humidity using the Met Office high-resolution model. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140 (681). pp. 1189-1197. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2207

Woodage, M. and Woodward, S. (2014) U.K. HiGEM: impacts of desert dust radiative forcing in a high-resolution atmospheric GCM. Journal Of Climate, 27 (15). pp. 5907-5928. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00556.1

Yanase, W., Niino, H., Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X and Kitabatake, N. (2014) Parameter spaces of environmental fields responsible for cyclone development from tropics to extratropics. Journal of Climate, 27 (2). pp. 652-671. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00153.1

Zappa, G., Masato, G., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Woollings, T. and Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2014) Linking Northern Hemisphere blocking and storm track biases in the CMIP5 climate models. Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (1). pp. 135-139. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1002/2013GL058480

Zappa, G., Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2014) Can polar lows be objectively identified and tracked in the ECMWF operational analysis and the ERA-Interim reanalysis? Monthly Weather Review, 142 (8). pp. 2596-2608. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00064.1

Zobitz, J.M., Moore, D. J.P., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Braswell, B. H., Bergeson, A., Anthony, J. A. and Monson, R. K. (2014) Joint data assimilation of satellite reflectance and net ecosystem exchange data constrains ecosystem carbon fluxes at a high-elevation subalpine forest. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 195-196. pp. 73-88. ISSN 0168-1923 doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.04.011

2013

Albaladejo, J., Ortiz, R., García-Franco, N., Navarro, A. R., Almagro, M., Garcia-Pintado, J. and Martínez-Mena, M. (2013) Land use and climate change impacts on soil organic carbon stocks in semi-arid Spain. Journal of Soils and Sediments, 13 (2). pp. 265-277. ISSN 1614-7480 doi: 10.1007/s11368-012-0617-7

Bianchi, B., Van Leeuwen, P., Hogan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3180-5157 and Berne, A. (2013) A variational approach to retrieve rain rate by combining information from rain gauges, radars, and microwave links. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 14 (6). pp. 1897-1909. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-12-094.1

Clifford, D. and Day, J. (2013) Impact of Northern Hemisphere snow on the Arctic Ocean in a climate model. In: Proceedings of Earth Observation and Cryosphere Science : 13-16 November 2012, Frascati, Italy. European Space Agency. ISBN 9789292212766

Costa, A., Wadge, G., Stewart, R. and Odbert, H. (2013) Coupled subdaily and multiweek cycles during the lava dome erupt of Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. Journal of Geophysical Research. Solid Earth, 118 (5). pp. 1895-1903. ISSN 2169-9356 doi: 10.1002/jgrb.50095

Cripps, E., O’Hagan, A. and Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 (2013) Quantifying uncertainty in remotely sensed land cover maps. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 27 (5). pp. 1239-1251. ISSN 1436-3240 doi: 10.1007/s00477-012-0660-3

Freitag, M.A., Nichols, N.K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 and Budd, C.J. (2013) Resolution of sharp fronts in the presence of model error in variational data assimilation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139 (672). pp. 742-757. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2002

John, V. O., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Bell, W., Buehler, S. A. and Kottayil, A. (2013) Assessment of intercalibration methods for satellite microwave humidity sounders. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118 (10). pp. 4906-4918. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50358

Lawless, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568 (2013) Variational data assimilation for very large environmental problems. In: Cullen, M., Freitag, M.A., Kindermann, S. and Scheichl, R. (eds.) Large Scale Inverse Problems: Computational Methods and Applications in the Earth Sciences. Radon Series on Computational and Applied Mathematics, 2 (13). De Gruyter, Berlin, pp. 55-90. ISBN 9783110282269

Liu, C. and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2013) Observed and simulated precipitation responses in wet and dry regions 1850–2100. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (3). 034002. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034002

Maidment, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Grimes, D. I. F., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Greatrex, H., Rojas, O. and Leo, O. (2013) Evaluation of satellite-based and model re-analysis rainfall estimates for Uganda. Meteorological Applications, 20 (3). pp. 308-317. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: 10.1002/met.1283

Migliorini, S. (2013) Information-based data selection for ensemble data assimilation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139 (677). pp. 2033-2054. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2104

Moodey, A. J. F., Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568, Potthast, R. W. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6794-2500 and Van Leeuwen, P. J. (2013) Nonlinear error dynamics for cycled data assimilation methods. Inverse Problems, 29 (2). 025002. ISSN 0266-5611 doi: 10.1088/0266-5611/29/2/025002

Rey, J., Martínez, J., Barberá, G.G., García-Aróstegui, J.L., García-Pintado, J. and Martínez-Vicente, D. (2013) Geophysical characterization of the complex dynamics of groundwater and seawater exchange in a highly stressed aquifer system linked to a coastal lagoon (SE Spain). Environmental Earth Sciences, 70 (5). pp. 2271-2282. ISSN 1866-6299 doi: 10.1007/s12665-013-2472-2

Roberts, C. D., Waters, J., Peterson, K. A., Palmer, M., McCarthy, G. D., Frajka-Williams, E., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Lea, D. J., Martin, M. J., Storkey, D., Blockey, E. W. and Zuo, H. (2013) Atmosphere drives recent interannual variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (19). pp. 5164-5170. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1002/grl.50930

Smith, P. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4570-4127, Thornhill, G. D., Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568, Mason, D. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081 and Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 (2013) Data assimilation for state and parameter estimation: application to morphodynamic modelling. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139 (671 Part B). pp. 314-327. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.1944

Stewart, L. M., Dance, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338 and Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 (2013) Data assimilation with correlated observation errors: experiments with a 1-D shallow water model. Tellus A, 65. 19546. ISSN 1600-0870 doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.19546

Thomas, C. D., Anderson, B. J., Moilanen, A., Eigenbrod, F., Heinemeyer, A., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Roy, D. B., Gillings, S., Armsworth, P. R. and Gaston, K. J. (2013) Reconciling biodiversity and carbon conservation. Ecology Letters, 16. pp. 39-47. ISSN 1461-0248 doi: 10.1111/ele.12054 (issue supplement s1)

Van Leeuwen, P. J. and Ades, M. (2013) Efficient fully nonlinear data assimilation for geophysical fluid dynamics. Computers & Geosciences, 55. pp. 16-27. ISSN 0098-3004 doi: 10.1016/j.cageo.2012.04.015

Zahn, M. and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2013) Climate warming–related strengthening of the tropical hydrological cycle. Journal of Climate, 26 (2). pp. 562-574. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00222.1

Zappa, G., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2013) The ability of CMIP5 models to simulate North Atlantic extratropical cyclones. Journal of Climate, 26 (15). pp. 5379-5396. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00501.1

Zappa, G., Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Sansom, P. G. and Stephenson, D. B. (2013) A multimodel assessment of future projections of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models. Journal of Climate, 26 (16). pp. 5846-5862. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00573.1

2012

Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2012) Regime dependent changes in global precipitation. Climate Dynamics, 39 (3-4). pp. 827-840. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1134-x

Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2012) The role of water vapour in Earth’s energy flows. Surveys in Geophysics, 33 (3-4). pp. 557-564. ISSN 1573-0956 doi: 10.1007/s10712-011-9157-8 (special issue: Observing and Modeling Earth's Energy Flows)

Bengtsson, L., Koumoutsaris, S., Bonnet, R. -M., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Fröhlich, C., Heintzenberg, J., Ingmann, P., Kandel, R., Loeb, N. G., Soden, B. and Trenberth, K. E. (2012) Observing and Modeling Earth's Energy Flows. Space Sciences Series of ISSI, 41. Springer. ISBN 9789400743267

Ebmeier, S.K., Biggs, J., Mather, T.A., Elliott, J.R., Wadge, G. and Amelung, F. (2012) Measuring large topographic change with InSAR: lava thicknesses, extrusion rate and subsidence rate at Santiaguito volcano, Guatemala. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 335-336. pp. 216-225. ISSN 0012-821X doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.027

Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Valdivieso, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1738-7016, Zuo, H. and Stepanov, V. N. (2012) Transports and budgets in a 1/4 ° global ocean reanalysis 1989–2010. Ocean Science, 8 (3). pp. 333-344. ISSN 1812-0784 doi: 10.5194/os-8-333-2012

Harvey, B. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Woollings, T. J., Zappa, G. and Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2012) How large are projected 21st century storm track changes? Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (18). L18707. ISSN 1944–8007 doi: 10.1029/2012GL052873

Hoffmann, A., Clifford, D., Aulinas, J., Carton, J., Deconinck, F., Esen, B., Huesing, J., Kern, K., Kox, S., Krejci, D., Krings, T., Lohrey, S., Romano, P., Topham, R. and Weitnauer, C. (2012) A novel satellite mission concept for upper air water vapour, aerosol and cloud observations using integrated path differential absorption LiDAR limb sounding. Remote Sensing, 4 (4). pp. 867-910. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: 10.3390/rs4040867

Hogan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3180-5157, Tian, L., Brown, P. R.A., Westbrook, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2889-8815, Heymsfield, A. J. and Eastment, J. D. (2012) Radar scattering from ice aggregates using the horizontally aligned oblate spheroid approximation. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 51 (3). pp. 655-671. ISSN 1558-8432 doi: 10.1175/JAMC-D-11-074.1

Jung, T., Miller, M. J., Palmer, T. N., Powers, P., Wedi, N., Achuthavarier, D., Adams, J. M., Altshuler, E. L., Cash, B. A., Kinter III, J. L., Marx, L., Stan, C. and Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2012) High-resolution global climate simulations with the ECMWF model in Project Athena: experimental design, model climate, and seasonal forecast skill. Journal of Climate, 25 (9). pp. 3155-3172. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00265.1

Lavers, D. A., Villarini, G., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Wood, E. F. and Wade, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5296-8350 (2012) The detection of atmospheric rivers in atmospheric reanalyses and their links to British winter floods and the large-scale climatic circulation. Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres, 117 (D20). ISSN 2169-8996 doi: 10.1029/2012JD018027

Liu, C. and Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2012) Multi-satellite observed responses of precipitation and its extremes to interannual climate variability. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117. D03101. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: 10.1029/2011JD016568

Liu, C., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Huffman, G. J. (2012) Co-variation of temperature and precipitation in CMIP5 models and satellite observations. Geophysical Research Letters, 39. L13803. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2012GL052093

Loeb, N. G., Lyman, J. M., Johnson, G. C., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Doelling, D. R., Wong, T., Soden, B. J. and Stephens, G. L. (2012) Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty. Nature Geoscience, 15. pp. 110-113. ISSN 1752-0894 doi: 10.1038/ngeo1375

Manganello, J. V., Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Kinter III, J. L., Cash, B. A., Marx, L., Jung, T., Achuthavarier, D., Adams, J. M., Altshuler, E. L., Huang, B., Jin, E. K., Stan, C., Towers, P. and Wedi, N. (2012) Tropical cyclone climatology in a 10-km global atmospheric GCM: toward weather-resolving climate modeling. Journal of Climate, 25. pp. 3867-3893. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00346.1

Marín-Pérez, R., Garcia-Pintado, J. and Skarmeta, A. G. (2012) A real-time measurement system for long-life flood monitoring and warning applications. Sensors, 12 (4). pp. 4213-4236. ISSN 1424-8220 doi: 10.3390/s120404213

Mason, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Davenport, I., Neal, J., Schumann, G. and Bates, P. (2012) Near real-time flood detection in urban and rural areas using high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar images. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 50 (8). pp. 3041-3052. ISSN 0196-2892 doi: 10.1109/TGRS.2011.2178030

Migliorini, S. (2012) On the equivalence between radiance and retrieval assimilation. Monthly Weather Review, 140 (1). pp. 258-265. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-10-05047.1

O’Gorman, P. A., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Byrne, M. P. and Previdi, M. (2012) Energetic constraints on precipitation under climate change. Surveys in Geophysics, 33 (3-4). pp. 585-608. ISSN 1573-0956 doi: 10.1007/s10712-011-9159-6

Pfeifer, M., Disney, M., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 and Marchant, R. (2012) Terrestrial ecosystems from space: a review of earth observation products for macroecology applications. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21 (6). pp. 603-624. ISSN 1466-822X doi: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00712.x

Rycroft, M. J. and Harrison, R. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0693-347X (2012) Electromagnetic atmosphere-plasma coupling: the global atmospheric electric circuit. Space Science Reviews, 168 (1). pp. 363-384. ISSN 0038-6308 doi: 10.1007/s11214-011-9830-8

Schumann, G.J.-P., Bates, P.D., Di Baldassarre, G. and Mason, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081 (2012) The use of radar imagery in riverine flood inundation studies. In: Carbonneau, P. and Piegay, H. (eds.) Fluvial Remote Sensing for Science and Management. Advancing river restoration and management. Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester, pp. 115-140. ISBN 9781119940791 doi: 10.1002/9781119940791.ch6

Stappers, R. J. J. and Barkmeijer, J. (2012) Gaussian quadrature 4D-VAR. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139 (675). pp. 1465-1472. ISSN 1477-870x doi: 10.1002/qj.2056

Stappers, R. J. J. and Barkmeijer, J. (2012) Optimal linearization trajectories for tangent linear models. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 138 (662). pp. 170-184. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.908

Stepanov, V. N., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374 and Smith, G. C. (2012) Assimilation of RAPID array observations into an ocean model. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 138 (669). pp. 2105-2117. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.1945

Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Bates, P. D., Freer, J. and Mason, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081 (2012) The impact of uncertainty in satellite data on the assessment of flood inundation models. Journal of Hydrology, 414-41. pp. 162-173. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.040 (414-415, 162-173)

Thornhill, G. D., Mason, D. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568, Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 and Forbes, H. R. (2012) Integration of a 3D Variational data assimilation scheme with a coastal area morphodynamic model of Morecambe Bay. Coastal Engineering, 69. pp. 82-96. ISSN 0378-3839 doi: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2012.05.010

Toombs, A. and Wadge, G. (2012) Co-eruptive and inter-eruptive surface deformation measured by satellite radar interferometry at Nyamuragira volcano, D.R. Congo, 1996 to 2010. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 245-246. pp. 98-122. ISSN 0377-0273 doi: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2012.07.005

Van Leeuwen, P. and De Ruijter, W. P. M. (2012) Reply to comments on ‘On the steadiness of separating meandering currents’. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 42 (8). pp. 1371-1374. ISSN 0022-3670 doi: 10.1175/JPO-D-11-0213.1

Wadge, G., Saunders, S. and Itikarai, I. (2012) Pulsatory andesite lava flow at Bagana Volcano. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 13. Q11011. ISSN 1525-2027 doi: 10.1029/2012GC004336

Williams, C.J.R., Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Kniveton, D.R. (2012) Diagnosing atmosphere–land feedbacks in CMIP5 climate models. Environmental Research Letters, 7 (4). 044003. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044003

Xia, L., Zahn, M., Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Feser, F. and Storch, H. (2012) A comparison of two identification and tracking methods for polar lows. Tellus A, 64 (1). 17196. ISSN 1600-0870 doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17196

2011

Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2011) Combining satellite data and models to estimate cloud radiative effect at the surface and in the atmosphere. Meteorological Applications, 18 (3). pp. 324-333. ISSN 1469-8080 (special issue: 'Sensing the weather')

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2011) Human influence on rainfall. Nature, 470 (7334). pp. 344-345. ISSN 0028-0836 doi: 10.1038/470344a

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Woodage, M. J., Milton, S. F., Brooks, M. E. and Haywood, J. M. (2011) Examination of long-wave radiative bias in general circulation models over North Africa during May–July. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137 (658). pp. 1179-1192. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.717

Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Zveryaev, I.I. (2011) Variability in the summer season hydrological cycle over the Atlantic-Europe region 1979-2007. International Journal of Climatology, 31 (3). pp. 337-348. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: 10.1002/joc.2070

Bannister, R. N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6846-8297 (2011) Issues in the assimilation of the sources of a trace gas by inverse modelling. Computers & Fluids, 46 (1). pp. 106-112. ISSN 0045-7930 doi: 10.1016/j.compfluid.2010.11.017

Bannister, R. N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6846-8297, Migliorini, S. and Dixon, M. A. G. (2011) Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model - II: forecast error statistics. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 63 (3). pp. 497-512. ISSN 0280-6495 doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00500.x

Boess, C., Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568, Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 and Bunse-Gerstner, A. (2011) State estimation using model order reduction for unstable systems. Computers & Fluids, 46 (1). pp. 155-160. ISSN 0045-7930 doi: 10.1016/j.compfluid.2010.11.033

Fox, N., Kaiser-Weiss, A., Schmutz, W., Thome, K., Young, D., Wielicki, B., Winkler, R. and Woolliams, E. (2011) Accurate radiometry from space: an essential tool for climate studies. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369 (1953). pp. 4028-4063. ISSN 1471-2962 doi: 10.1098/rsta.2011.0246

Haben, S. A., Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568 and Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 (2011) Conditioning and preconditioning of the variational data assimilation problem. Computers & Fluids, 46 (1). pp. 252-256. ISSN 0045-7930 doi: 10.1016/j.compfluid.2010.11.025

Haben, S. A., Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568 and Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 (2011) Conditioning of incremental variational data assimilation, with application to the Met Office system. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 63 (4). pp. 782-792. ISSN 1600-0870 doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2011.00527.x

Haywood, J. M., Johnson, B. T., Osborne, S. R., Baran, A. J., Brooks, M., Milton, S. F., Mulcahy, J., Walters, D., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Klaver, A., Formenti, P., Brindley, H. E., Christopher, S. and Gupta, P. (2011) Motivation, rationale and key results from the GERBILS Saharan dust measurement campaign. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137 (658). pp. 1106-1116. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.797

John, V.O., Holl, G., Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Buehler, S.A., Parker, D.E. and Soden, B.J. (2011) Clear-sky biases in satellite infrared estimates of upper tropospheric humidity and its trends. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116. D14108. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: 10.1029/2010JD015355

Kaiser-Weiss, A. K. and Migliorini, G. (2011) Quasi-optimal assimilation of satellite retrievals for incremental 4D-Var. Computers & Fluids, 46 (1). pp. 287-292. ISSN 0045-7930 doi: 10.1016/j.compfluid.2010.11.016

Lavers, D., Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Wood, E. F., Villarini, G., Brayshaw, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362 and Wade, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5296-8350 (2011) Winter floods in Britain are connected to atmospheric rivers. Geophysical Research Letters, 38 (23). L23803. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2011GL049783

Mason, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Davenport, I., Neal, J., Schumann, G. and Bates, P. (2011) A near real-time algorithm for flood detection in urban and rural areas using high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar images. 2nd International Conference on Space Technology (ICST), 2011. doi: 10.1109/ICSpT.2011.6064673

Migliorini, S., Dixon, M., Bannister, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6846-8297 and Ballard, S. (2011) Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model—I: description of the system and the impact of radar-derived surface precipitation rates. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 63 (3). pp. 468-496. ISSN 0280-6495 doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00503.x

Neal, J., Schumann, G., Fewtrell, T., Budimir, M., Bates, P. and Mason, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081 (2011) Evaluating a new LISFLOOD-FP formulation with data from the summer 2007 floods in Tewkesbury, UK. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 4 (2). pp. 88-95. ISSN 1753-318X doi: 10.1111/j.1753-318X.2011.01093.x

Petrie, R. E. and Bannister, R. N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6846-8297 (2011) A method for merging flow-dependent forecast error statistics from an ensemble with static statistics for use in high resolution variational data assimilation. Computers & Fluids, 46 (1). pp. 387-391. ISSN 0045-7930 doi: 10.1016/j.compfluid.2011.01.037

Pocock, J. A., Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338 and Lawless, A. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3016-6568 (2011) State estimation using the particle filter with mode tracking. Computers & Fluids, 46 (1). pp. 392-397. ISSN 0045-7930 doi: 10.1016/j.compfluid.2011.02.009

Rennie, S. J., Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Illingworth, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5774-8410, Ballard, S. P. and Simonin, D. (2011) 3D-Var assimilation of insect-derived Doppler radar radial winds in convective cases using a high resolution model. Monthly Weather Review, 139 (4). pp. 1148-1163. ISSN 1520-0493 doi: 10.1175/2010MWR3482.1

Sandells, M., Nelson, S. and Hollingham, R. (2011) The Earth's magnetic field, snow, and Chernobyl. [Audio]

Scaife, A. A., Copsey, D., Gordon, C., Harris, C., Hinton, T., Keeley, S., O'Neill, A., Roberts, M. and Williams, K. (2011) Improved Atlantic winter blocking in a climate model. Geophysical Research Letters, 38 (23). L23703. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2011GL049573

Schumann, G. J.-P., Neal, J. C., Mason, D. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081 and Bates, P. D. (2011) The accuracy of sequential aerial photography and SAR data for observing urban flood dynamics, a case study of the UK summer 2007 floods. Remote Sensing of Environment, 115 (10). pp. 2536-2546. ISSN 0034-4257 doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2011.04.039

Stappers, R. J. J. and Barkmeijer, J. (2011) Properties of singular vectors using convective available potential energy as final time norm. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 63 (3). pp. 373-384. ISSN 0280-6495 doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00501.x

Zahn, M. and Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2011) Changes in water vapor transports of the ascending branch of the tropical circulation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116. D18111. ISSN 2156–2202 doi: 10.1029/2011JD016206

2010

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Liepert, B. G. (2010) Anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle. Environmental Research Letters, 5 (2). 025201. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025201

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Soden, B. J., John, V. O., Ingram, W. and Good, P. (2010) Current changes in tropical precipitation. Environmental Research Letters, 5 (2). 025205. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025205

Bannister, R. N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6846-8297 (2010) The role of balance in data assimilation. In: Fitt, A. D., Norbury, J., Ockendon, H. and Wilson, E. (eds.) Progress in Industrial Mathematics at ECMI 2008. Mathematics in Industry (15). Springer, pp. 393-399. ISBN 9783642121098

Champion, A., Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X and Bengtsson, L. (2010) Extreme precipitation and climate change: the potential impacts on flooding. In: BHS Third International Symposium, Managing the Consequences of a Changing Global Environment, 19-23 July 2010, Newcastle University. (Proceedings of the BHS Third International Symposium)

Froude, L. S. R. (2010) TIGGE: Comparison of the prediction of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems. Weather and Forecasting, 25. pp. 819-836. ISSN 0882-8156 doi: 10.1175/2010WAF2222326.1

Harrison, R. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0693-347X, Nicoll, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5580-6325, Ulanowski, Z. J. and Mather, T. (2010) Self-charging of the Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash plume. Environmental Research Letters, 5 (2). 024004. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/024004

Komorowski, J.-C., Legendre, Y., Christopher, T., Bernstein, M., Stewart, R., Joseph, E., Fournier, N., Chardot, L., Finizola, A., Wadge, G., Syers, R., Williams, C. and Bass, V. (2010) Insights into processes and deposits of hazardous vulcanian explosions at Soufrière Hills Volcano during 2008 and 2009 (Montserrat, West Indies). Geophysical Research Letters, 37. L00E19. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2010GL042558

Mason, D. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Scott, T. R. and Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338 (2010) Remote sensing of intertidal morphological change in Morecambe Bay, U.K., between 1991 and 2007. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 87 (3). pp. 487-496. ISSN 0272-7714 doi: 10.1016/j.ecss.2010.01.015

Neal, J. C., Schumann, G. J.-P., Bates, P. D. and Mason, D. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081 (2010) Estimating discharge from inundation imagery. In: American Geophysical Union (Fall Meeting), 13-17 December 2010, San Francisco. (Unpublished)

Petrie, R. E. and Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338 (2010) Ensemble-based data assimilation and the localisation problem. Weather, 65 (3). pp. 65-69. ISSN 0043-1656 doi: 10.1002/wea.505

Ryan, G. A., Loughlin, S. C., James, M. R., Jones, L. D., Calder, E. S., Christopher, T., Strutt, M. H. and Wadge, G. (2010) Growth of the lava dome and extrusion rates at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies: 2005–2008. Geophysical Research Letters, 37. L00E08. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2009GL041477

Sandells, M., Flerchinger, G., Gurney, R. and Marks, D. (2010) Physics-based modelling for remote sensing of snow. In: British Hydrological Society Third International Symposium: Role of Hydrology in Managing Consequences of a Changing Global Environment, 19-23 July 2010, Newcastle University, UK.

Wadge, G. (2010) Assessing the pyroclastic flow hazards from dome collapse at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. In: Thordarson, T., Self, S., Rowlands, S. and Hoskuldsson, A. (eds.) Studies in Volcanology: the Legacy of George Walker. IAVCEI Publications, IAVCEI 2. Geological Society London/ IAVCEI , London, pp. 211-224. ISBN 9781862392809

Wadge, G., Zhu, M., Holley, R. J., James, L. N., Clark, P. A., Wang, C. and Woodage, M. J. (2010) Correction of atmospheric delay effects in radar interferometry using a nested mesoscale atmospheric model. Journal of Applied Geophysics, 72 (2). pp. 141-149. ISSN 0926-9851 doi: 10.1016/j.jappgeo.2010.08.005

2009

Garcia-Pintado, J., Barberá, G. G., Erena, M. and Castillo, V. M. (2009) Calibration of structure in a distributed forecasting model for a semiarid flash flood: dynamic surface storage and channel roughness. Journal of Hydrology, 377 (1-2). pp. 165-184. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.024

Hale, A.J., Calder, E.S., Loughlin, S.C., Wadge, G. and Ryan, G.A. (2009) Modelling the lava dome extruded at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, August 2005–May 2006. Part II: Rockfall activity and talus deformation. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 187 (1-2). pp. 69-84. ISSN 0377-0273 doi: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2009.08.014

Hale, A.J., Calder, E.S., Wadge, G., Loughlin, S.C. and Ryan, G.A. (2009) Modelling the lava dome extruded at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, August 2005–May 2006. Part I: Dome shape and internal structure. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 187 (1-2). pp. 53-68. ISSN 0377-0273 doi: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2009.08.023

Odbert, H.M. and Wadge, G. (2009) Time series analysis of lava flux. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 188 (4). pp. 305-314. ISSN 0377-0273 doi: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2009.09.005

Smith, G. and Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374 (2009) Evaluation of the S(T) assimilation method with the Argo dataset. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 135 (640). pp. 739-756. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.395

Wadge, G., Aspinall, W. and Barclay, J., (2009) Risk-based policy support for volcanic hazard mitigation. Project Report. Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Unpublished)

Wadge, G., Ryan, G. and Calder, E.S. (2009) Clastic and core lava components of a silicic lava dome. Geology, 37 (6). pp. 551-554. ISSN 0091-7613 doi: 10.1130/G25747A.1

2008

Ager, G., Wadge, G., Tragheim, D. and Jordan, C., (2008) Volcanic eruption of 29th July 2008 on the island of Montserrat. Technical Report. British Geological Survey pp48.

2004

Elliott, L. J., Mason, D. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081, Wilkinson, M. J., Allainguillame, J., Norris, C., Alexander, M. and Welters, R. (2004) The role of satellite image-processing for national-scale estimates of gene flow from genetically modified crops: rapeseed in the UK as a model. Journal of Applied Ecology, 41 (6). pp. 1174-1184. ISSN 0021-8901 doi: 10.1111/j.0021-8901.2004.00963.x

Keesman, K. J. and Stappers, R. (2004) Nonlinear set-membership estimation: a support vector machine approach. Journal of inverse and ill-posed problems, 12 (1). pp. 27-42. ISSN 1569-3945 doi: 10.1515/156939404773972752

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