Items where Division is "NCAS"

Reading Faculties, Schools and Departments (1450)
- Science (1450)
  - School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences (1450)
    - NCAS (1450)

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Number of items at this level: 1450.

2023

Akhter, S., Holloway, C. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9903-8989, Hodges, K. and Vanniere, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8600-400X (2023) How well do high-resolution Global Climate Models (GCMs) simulate tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal? Climate Dynamics. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06745-3

Black, E., Asfaw, D. T., Sananka, A., Aston, S., Boult, V. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7572-5469 and Maidment, R. I. (2023) Application of TAMSAT-ALERT soil moisture forecasts for planting date decision support in Africa. Frontiers in climate, 4. 993511. ISSN 2624-9553 doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.993511

Bloomfield, H. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5616-1503, Hillier, J., Griffin, A., Kay, A. L., Shaffrey, L. C., Pianosi, F., James, R., Kumar, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2253-4129, Champion, A. and Bates, P. D. (2023) Co-occurring wintertime flooding and extreme wind over Europe, from daily to seasonal timescales. Weather and Climate Extremes, 39. 100550. ISSN 22120947 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100550

Boult, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7572-5469 (2023) Forecast-based action for conservation. Conservation Biology. e14054. ISSN 1523-1739 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.14054

Bulgin, C. E., Mecking, J. V., Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Jevrejeva, S., McCarroll, N. F., Merchant, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4687-9850 and Sinha, B. (2023) Dynamic sea-level changes and potential implications for storm surges in the UK: a storylines perspective. Environmental Research Letters. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acc6df (In Press)

Cael, B. B., Bloch-Johnson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8465-5383, Ceppi, P., Fredriksen, H.-B., Goodwin, P., Gregory, J. M., Smith, C. J. and Williams, R. G. (2023) Energy budget diagnosis of changing climate feedback. Science Advances. ISSN 2375-2548 (In Press)

Chevuturi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2815-7221, Klingaman, N. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303, Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514, Rudroff, C. M., Coelho, C. A.S. and Schongart, J. (2023) Forecasting annual maximum water level for the Negro River at Manaus using dynamical seasonal predictions. Climate Services, 30. 100342. ISSN Elsevier doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100342

Conroy, A., Titley, H., Rivett, R., Feng, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4143-107X, Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872, Hodges, K., Brammer, A., Burton, A., Chakraborty, P., Chen, G., Cowan, L., Dunion, J. and Sarkar, A. (2023) Track forecast: operational capability and new techniques - summary from the Tenth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-10). Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. ISSN 2225-6032 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.05.002 (In Press)

Delfino, R. J., Vidale, P. L., Bagtasa, G. and Hodges, K. (2023) Response of damaging Philippines tropical cyclones to a warming climate using the pseudo global warming approach. Climate Dynamics. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06742-6

Diong, J.-Y., Xavier, P., Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 and Abdullah, F. A. (2023) Equatorial Rossby waves on Cold Surge Days and their impact on rainfall. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4493 (In Press)

Feng, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4143-107X, Yang, G.-Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7450-3477, Hodges, K. and Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 (2023) Equatorial waves as useful precursors to tropical cyclone occurrence and intensification. Nature Communications, 14 (511). ISSN 2041-1723 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36055-5

Feng, Z., Lv, S., Sun, Y., Feng, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4143-107X, Zhai, P., Lin, Y., Shen, Y. and Zhong, W. (2023) Skillful seasonal prediction of typhoon track density using deep learning. Remote Sensing, 15 (7). 1797. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15071797

Ferrett, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4726-847X, Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872, Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514, Yang, G.-Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7450-3477, Holloway, C. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9903-8989 and Wolf, G. (2023) Hybrid dynamical-statistical forecasts of the risk of rainfall in South East Asia dependent on equatorial waves. Monthly Weather Review. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-22-0300.1 (In Press)

Galea, D., Kunkel, J. and Lawrence, B. N. (2023) TCDetect: a new method of detecting the presence of tropical cyclones using deep learning. Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems. ISSN 2769-7525 (In Press)

Gonzalez, P. L. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0154-0087, Howard, E., Ferrett, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4726-847X, Frame, T. H. A., Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379, Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 and Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 (2023) Weather patterns in Southeast Asia: enhancing high-impact weather sub-seasonal forecast skill. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 149 (750). pp. 19-39. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4378

Hallam, S., McCarthy, G. D., Feng, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4143-107X, Josey, S. A., Harris, E., Düsterhus, A., Ogungbenro, S. and Hirschi, J. J.-M. (2023) The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies, wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall over ocean and land. Environmental Research Communications, 5 (2). 025007. ISSN 2515-7620 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acb31c

Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2023) Storylines for future changes of the North Atlantic jet and associated impacts on the UK. International Journal of Climatology. ISSN 1097-0088 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8095

Hirons, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576, Wainwright, C. M., Nying'uro, P., Quaye, D., Ashong, J., Kiptum, C., Opoku, N. K., Thompson, E. M. and Lamptey, B. (2023) Experiences of co-producing sub-seasonal forecast products for agricultural application in Kenya and Ghana. Weather, 78 (5). pp. 148-153. ISSN 1477-8696 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.4381

Joshi, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2948-2811, Hall, R. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3665-6322, Stevens, D. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7283-4405 and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2023) The modelled climatic response to the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and its role in decadal temperature trends. Earth System Dynamics, 14 (2). pp. 443-455. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-443-2023

Kuhlbrodt, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2328-6729, Voldoire, A., Palmer, M. D., Geoffroy, O. and Killick, R. E. (2023) Historical ocean heat uptake in two pairs of CMIP6 models: global and regional perspectives. Journal of Climate, 36 (7). pp. 2183-2203. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0468.1

Li, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6632-8389, Jiang, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1727-9266, Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Chen, H., Li, Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2029-7385 and Heng, Z. (2023) Prediction of the diurnal variation of summertime precipitation over the Sichuan Basin by a regional model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128 (2). e2021JD036247. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD036247

Liao, X., Holloway, C. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9903-8989, Feng, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4143-107X, Liu, C., Lyu, X., Xue, Y., Bao, R., Li, J. and Qiao, F. (2023) Observed interannual relationship between ITCZ position and tropical cyclone frequency. Journal of Climate. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0865.1 (In Press)

Marcheggiani, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3571-608X, Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Bracegirdle, T. J. and Smith, D. (2023) Decadal predictability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet in winter. Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (8). e2022GL102071. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102071

Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Dittus, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9598-6869, Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2023) Uncertainty in simulating twentieth century West African precipitation trends: the role of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Earth's Future, 11 (2). e2022EF002995. ISSN 2328-4277

Muetzelfeldt, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6851-7351, Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Vidale, P. L. and Menon, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9347-0578 (2023) Intraseasonal oscillations of the Silk Road pattern lead to predictability in East Asian precipitation patterns and the Mei Yu front. Environmental Research Communications, 5 (1). 015003. ISSN 2515-7620 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acb040

O'Reilly, C. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8630-1650, Patterson, M., Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Hodson, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700 and Ruprich-Robert, Y. (2023) Challenges with interpreting the impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability using SST-restoring experiments. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6. 14. ISSN 2397-3722 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00335-0

Priestley, M. D. K., Ackerley, D., Catto, J. L. and Hodges, K. I. (2023) Drivers of biases in the CMIP6 extratropical storm tracks. Part I: Northern Hemisphere. Journal of Climate, 36 (5). pp. 1451-1467. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0976.1

Racoma, B. A. B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7778-7273, Holloway, C. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9903-8989, Schiemann, R. K. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Feng, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4143-107X and Bagtasa, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5433-7122 (2023) The effect of the Cordillera mountain range on tropical cyclone rainfall in the Northern Philippines. Atmosphere, 14 (4). 643. ISSN 2073-4433 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14040643

Smith, I. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7512-8370, Williams, P. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9713-9820 and Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856 (2023) Clear-air turbulence trends over the North Atlantic in high-resolution climate models. Climate Dynamics. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06694-x

Su, Q., Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Tian, F., Klingaman, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303 and Dong, B. (2023) Anthropogenic influence on decadal changes of concurrent hot and dry events over China around the mid-1990s. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. ISSN 0256-1530 (In Press)

Tan, Y., Zhang, W., Feng, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4143-107X, Guo, Y. and Hoitink, A. J. F. (2023) Storm surge variability and prediction from ENSO and tropical cyclones. Environmental Research Letters, 18 (2). 024016. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb1c8

Tang, H., Wang, J., Chen, Y., Tett, S. F. B., Sun, Y., Cheng, L., Sparrow, S. and Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 (2023) Human contribution to the risk of 2021 northwestern Pacific concurrent marine and terrestrial summer heat. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 104 (3). E673-E679. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0238.1

Volonte, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X, Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Clark, P. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1001-9226, Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379 and Ackerley, D. (2023) Strong surface winds in Storm Eunice. Part 1: storm overview and indications of sting-jet activity from observations and model data. Weather. ISSN 1477-8696 (In Press)

Volonte, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X, Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Clark, P. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1001-9226, Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379 and Ackerley, D. (2023) Strong surface winds in Storm Eunice. Part 2: airstream analysis. Weather. ISSN 1477-8696 (In Press)

Wouters, J., Schiemann, R. K. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856 and Shaffrey, L. C. (2023) Rare event simulation of extreme European winter rainfall in an intermediate complexity climate model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 15 (4). e2022MS003537. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022MS003537

Yang, G.-Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7450-3477, Feng, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4143-107X and Hodges, K. (2023) Seasonal and interannual variation of equatorial waves in ERA5 and GloSea5. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.4460

Yule, E. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5492-2217, Hegerl, G., Schurer, A. and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2023) Using early extremes to place the 2022 UK heat waves into historical context. Atmospheric Science Letters. e1159. ISSN 1530-261X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1159

Zhong, R., Yang, Q., Hodges, K., Wu, R. and Chen, D. (2023) Impact of data resolution on tracking Southern Ocean cyclones. Monthly Weather Review, 151 (1). pp. 3-22. ISSN 1520-0493 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-22-0121.1

2022

Abatan, A. A., Tett, S. F. B., Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Cunningham, C., Rudorff, C. M., Klingaman, N. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303, de Abreu, R. C. and , ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 (2022) Drivers and physical processes of drought events over the State of São Paulo, Brazil. Climate Dynamics, 58. pp. 3105-3119. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06091-2 (Abatan, A.A., Tett, S.F.B., Dong, B. et al. Drivers and physical processes of drought events over the State of São Paulo, Brazil. Clim Dyn (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06091-2)

Andrews, T., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Gregory, J. M., Dong, Y., Armour, K. C., Paynter, D., Lin, P., Modak, A., Mauritsen, T., Cole, J. N. S., Medeiros, B., Benedict, J. J., Douville, H., Roehrig, R., Koshiro, T., Kawai, H., Ogura, T., Dufresne, J.-L., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Liu, C. (2022) On the effect of historical SST patterns on radiative feedback. Journal of Geophysical Research, 127 (18). e2022JD036675. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036675

Athanasiadis, P. J., Ogawa, F., Omrani, N.-E., Keenlyside, N., Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Baker, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2697-1350, Vidale, P. L., Bellucci, A., Ruggieri, P., Haarsma, R., Roberts, M., Roberts, C., Novak, L. and Gualdi, S. (2022) Mitigating climate biases in the mid-latitude North Atlantic by increasing model resolution: SST gradients and their relation to blocking and the jet. Journal of Climate, 35 (21). pp. 3379-3400. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0515.1

Ayesiga, G., Holloway, C. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9903-8989, Williams, C. J. R., Yang, G.-Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7450-3477, Stratton, R. and Roberts, M. (2022) Linking Equatorial African precipitation to Kelvin wave processes in the CP4-Africa convection-permitting regional climate simulation. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 79 (5). pp. 1271-1289. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-21-0039.1

Baker, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2697-1350 (2022) Tropical cyclones: global decline in frequency. Nature Climate Change, 12. pp. 615-617. ISSN 1758-6798 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01414-5

Baker, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2697-1350, Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Hodges, K. I., Seddon, J., Vanniere, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8600-400X, Haarsma, R. J., Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Kapetanakis, D., Tourigny, E., Lohmann, K., Roberts, C. D. and Terray, L. (2022) Extratropical transition of tropical cyclones in a multiresolution ensemble of atmosphere-only and fully coupled global climate models. Journal of Climate, 35 (16). pp. 5283-5306. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0801.1

Befort, D. J., Hodges, K. I. and Weisheimer, A. (2022) Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Western North Pacific: dependence on model, resolution and stochastic physics. Journal of Climate, 35 (5). pp. 1385-1397. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0041.1

Bett, P. E., Thornton, H. E., Troccoli, A., De Felice, M., Suckling, E., Dubus, L., Saint-Drenan, Y.-M. and Brayshaw, D. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362 (2022) A simplified seasonal forecasting strategy, applied to wind and solar power in Europe. Climate Services, 27. 100318. ISSN 2405-8807 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100318

Bhatia, K., Baker, A., Yang, W., Vecchi, G., Knutson, T., Murakami, H., Kossin, J., Hodges, K., Dixon, K., Bronselaer, B. and Whitlock, C. (2022) A potential explanation for the global increase in tropical cyclone rapid intensification. Nature Communications, 13 (1). 6626. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34321-6

Bloomfield, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5616-1503, Brayshaw, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362, Deakin, M. and Greenwood, D. (2022) Hourly historical and near-future weather and climate variables for energy system modelling. Earth System Science Data. ISSN 1866-3516 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-436 (In Press)

Bodas-Salcedo, A., Gregory, J. M., Sexton, D. M. H. and Morice, C. P. (2022) Assessment of large-scale indices of surface temperature during the historical period in the CMIP6 ensembles. Journal of Climate. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0398.1 (In Press)

Bollasina, M. A. and Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 (2022) Atmospheric and oceanic dynamical responses to changes in aerosol. In: Carslaw, K. S. (ed.) Aerosols and Climate. Elsevier, pp. 545-570. ISBN 9780128197660 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-819766-0.00018-3

Boult, V. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7572-5469, Black, E., Abdillahi, H. S., Bailey, M., Harris, C., Kilavi, M., Kniveton, D., MacLeod, D., Mwangi, E., Otieno, G., Rees, E., Rowhani, P., Taylor, O. and Todd, M. C. (2022) Towards drought impact-based forecasting in a multi-hazard context. Climate Risk Management, 35. 100402. ISSN 2212-0963 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2022.100402

Bresson, H., Hodges, K. I., Shaffrey, L. C., Zappa, G. and Schiemann, R. (2022) The response of Northern Hemisphere polar lows to climate change in a 25 km high-resolution global climate model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127 (4). e2021JD035610. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035610

Castillo, J. M., Lewis, H., Mishra, A., Mitra, A., Polton, J., Brereton, A., Saulter, A., Arnold, A., Berthou, S., Clark, D., Crook, J., Das, A., Edwards, J., Feng, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4143-107X, Gupta, A., Joseph, S., Klingaman, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303, Momin, I., Pequignet, C., Sanchez, C., Saxby, J. and Valdivieso Da Costa, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1738-7016 (2022) The Regional Coupled Suite (RCS-IND1): application of a flexible regional coupled modelling framework to the Indian region at km scale. Geoscientific Model Development. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2022-7 (In Press)

Chevuturi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2815-7221, Klingaman, N. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303, Guo, L., Holloway, C. E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9903-8989, Guimarães, B. S., Coelho, C. A. S., Kubota, P. Y., Young, M., Black, E., Baker, J. C. A. and Vidale, P. L. (2022) Subseasonal prediction performance for South American land–atmosphere coupling in extended austral summer. Climate Resilience and Sustainability, 1 (1). e28. ISSN 2692-4587 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.28

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2021

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Bellouin, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2109-9559 and Collins, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7419-0850 (2021) IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R. and Zhou, B. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, pp. 3-32. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.001 (In Press)

Arias, P. A., Bellouin, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2109-9559, Coppola, E., Jones, R. G., Krinner, G., Marotzke, J., Naik, V., Palmer, M. D., Plattner, G.-K., Rogelj, J., Rojas, M., Sillmann, J., Storelvmo, T., Thorne, P. W., Trewin, B., Rao, K. A., Adhikary, B., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Armour, K., Bala, G., Barimalala, R., Berger, S., Canadell, J. G., Cassou, C., Cherchi, A., Collins, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7419-0850, Collins, W. D., Connors, S. L., Corti, S., Cruz, F., Dentener, F. J., Dereczynski, C., Luca, A. D., Niang, A. D., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Dosio, A., Douville, H., Engelbrecht, F., Eyring, V., Fischer, E., Forster, P., Fox-Kemper, B., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Fyfe, J. C., Gillett, N. P., Goldfarb, L., Gorodetskaya, I., Gutierrez, J. M., Hamdi, R., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Hewitt, H. T., Hope, P., Islam, A. S., Jones, C., Kaufman, D. S., Kopp, R. E., Kosaka, Y., Kossin, J., Krakovska, S., Lee, J.-Y., Li, J., Mauritsen, T., Maycock, T. K., Meinshausen, M., Min, S.-K., Monteiro, P. M. S., Ngo-Duc, T., Otto, F., Pinto, I., Pirani, A., Raghavan, K., Ranasinghe, R., Ruane, A. C., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J.-B., Samset, B. H., Sathyendranath, S., Seneviratne, S. I., Sörensson, A. A., Szopa, S., Takayabu, I., Tréguier, A.-M., van den Hurk, B., Vautard, R., von Schuckmann, K., Zaehle, S., Zhang, X. and Zickfeld., K. (2021) Technical summary. In: Masson-Delmotte, V. P., Zhai, A., Pirani, S. L. and Connors, C. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group. Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 33-144. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.002 (In Press)

Ayesiga, G., Holloway, C. E., Williams, C. J., Yang, G.-Y. and Ferrett, S. (2021) The observed synoptic scale precipitation relationship between Western Equatorial Africa and Eastern Equatorial Africa. International Journal of Climatology, 41 (S1). pp. 582-601. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6711

Baker, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2697-1350, Hodges, K. I., Schiemann, R. K. H. and Vidale, P. L. (2021) Historical variability and lifecycles of North Atlantic midlatitude cyclones originating in the tropics. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126 (9). e2020JD033924. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033924

Baker, L., Shaffrey, L. and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2021) Has the risk of a 1976 north-west European summer drought and heatwave event increased since the 1970s due to climate change? Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4172

Baldini, J. U.L., Lechleitner, F. A., Breitenbach, S. F.M., van Hunen, J., Baldini, L. M., Wynn, P. M., Jamieson, R. A., Ridley, H. E., Baker, A. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2697-1350, Walczak, I. W. and Fohlmeister, J. (2021) Detecting and quantifying palaeoseasonality in stalagmites using geochemical and modelling approaches. Quaternary Science Reviews, 254. 106784. ISSN 0277-3791 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106784

Bashmachnikov, I. L., Fedorov, A. M., Golubkin, P. A., Vesman, A. V., Selyuzhenok, V. V., Gnatiuk, N. V., Gnatiuk, L. P., Hodges, K. I. and Dukhovskoy, D. S. (2021) Mechanisms of interannual variability of deep convection in the Greenland Sea. Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers, 174. 103557. ISSN 0967-0637 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr.2021.103557

Bellucci, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3766-1921, Athanasiadis, P. J., Scoccimarro, E., Ruggieri, P., Gualdi, S., Fedele, G., Haarsma, R. J., Garcia-Serrano, J., Castrillo, M., Putrahasan, D., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Moine, M.-P., Roberts, C. D., Roberts, M. J., Seddon, J. and Vidale, P. L. (2021) Air-Sea interaction over the Gulf Stream in an ensemble of HighResMIP present climate simulations. Climate Dynamics, 56 (7-8). pp. 2093-2111. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05573-z

Beverley, J. D., Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514, Baker, L. H., Johnson, S. J., Weisheimer, A. and O'Reilly, C. H. (2021) Dynamical mechanisms linking Indian monsoon precipitation and the circumglobal teleconnection. Climate Dynamics. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05825-6

Black, E., Pinnington, E., Wainwright, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Lahive, F., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Cook, P., Daymond, A., Hadley, P., McGuire, P. C., Verhoef, A. and Vidale, P. L. (2021) Cocoa plant productivity in West Africa under climate change: a modelling and experimental study. Environmental Research Letters, 16 (1). 014009. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc3f3

Blaker, A. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5454-0131, Joshi, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2948-2811, Sinha, B., Stevens, D. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7283-4405, Smith, R. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7479-7778 and Hirschi, J. J.-M. (2021) FORTE 2.0: a fast, parallel and flexible coupled climate model. Geoscientific Model Development, 14 (1). pp. 275-293. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-275-2021

Bloch-Johnson, J., Rugenstein, M., Stolpe, M. B., Rohrschneider, T., Zheng, Y. and Gregory, J. M. (2021) Climate sensitivity increases under higher CO₂ levels due to feedback temperature dependence. Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (4). e2020GL089074. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089074

Bloomfield, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5616-1503, Gonzalez, P., Lundquist, J., Stoop, L., Browell, J., Dargaville, R., De Felice, M., Gruber, K., Hilbers, A., Kies, A., Panteli, M., Thornton, H., Wohland, J., Zeyringer, M. and Brayshaw, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362 (2021) The importance of weather and climate to energy systems: a workshop on next generation challenges in energy-climate modelling. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102 (1). E159-E167. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0256.1

Bloomfield, H. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5616-1503, Brayshaw, D. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362, Gonzalez, P. L. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0154-0087 and Charlton-Perez, A. (2021) Pattern-based conditioning enhances sub-seasonal prediction skill of European national energy variables. Meteorological Applications, 28 (4). e2018. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2018

Bloomfield, H. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5616-1503, Brayshaw, D. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362, Gonzalez, P. L. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0154-0087 and Charlton-Perez, A. (2021) Sub-seasonal forecasts of demand, wind power and solar power generation for 28 European Countries. Earth System Science Data, 13 (5). ISSN 1866-3516 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2259-2021

Bloomfield, H. C., Brayshaw, D. J., Troccoli, A., Goodess, C. M., De Felice, M., Dubus, L., Bett, P. E. and Saint-Drenan, Y.-M. (2021) Quantifying the sensitivity of European power systems to energy scenarios and climate change projections. Renewable Energy, 164. pp. 1062-1075. ISSN 0960-1481 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.09.125

Bopape, M.-J., Plant, B., Coceal, O., Efstathiou, G. and Valdivieso Da Costa, M. (2021) Effects of stability functions in a dynamic model convective boundary layer simulation. Atmospheric Science Letters, 22 (1). e1008. ISSN 1530-261X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1008

Boult, V. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7572-5469 and Evans, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8649-0589 (2021) Mechanisms matter: predicting the ecological impacts of global change. Global Change Biology, 27 (9). pp. 1689-1691. ISSN 1365-2486 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15527

Bracegirdle, T. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8868-4739, Lu, H. and Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X (2021) Early-winter North Atlantic low-level jet latitude biases in climate models: implications for simulated regional atmosphere-ocean linkages. Environmental Research Letters, 17 (1). ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac417f

Cezana, F. C., Goulart, E. V., Reis Jr, N. C. and Coceal, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0705-6755 (2021) Analysis of pollutant entrainment From localised sources in a street network. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 179. pp. 241-258. ISSN 0006-8314 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-020-00598-7

Chen, W. and Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 (2021) Projected near-term changes in temperature extremes over China in the mid-twenty-first century and underlying physical processes. Climate Dynamics, 56. pp. 1879-1894. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05566-y

Chevuturi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2815-7221, Klingaman, N. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303, Rudorff, C. M., Coelho, C. A. S. and Schöngart, J. (2021) Forecasting annual maximum water level for the Negro River at Manaus. Climate Resilience and Sustainability. ISSN 2692-4587 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.18

Chevuturi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2815-7221, Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Johnson, S., Weisheimer, A., Shonk, J., Stockdale, T. N. and Senan, R. (2021) Forecast skill of the Indian monsoon and its onset in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5). Climate Dynamics, 56 (9-10). pp. 2941-2957. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05624-5

Coelho, C. A. S., de Souza, D. C., Kubota, P. Y., Coelho, S. M. S. C., Menezes, L., Guimarães, B. S., Figueroa, S. N., Bonatti, J. P., Cavalcanti, I. F. A., Sampaio, G., Klingaman, N. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303 and Baker, J. C. A. (2021) Evaluation of climate simulations produced with the Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model version 1.2. Climate Dynamics, 56. pp. 873-898. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05508-8

Deroubaix, A., Labuhn, I., Camredon, M., Gaubert, B., Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Popp, M., Ramarohetra, J., Ruprich-Robert, Y., Silvers, L. G. and Siour, G. (2021) Large uncertainties in trends of energy demand for heating and cooling under climate change. Nature Communications, 12. 5197. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25504-8

Dias da Silva, P. E., Hodges, K. I. and Coutinho, M. M. (2021) How well does the HadGEM2-ES coupled model represent the Southern Hemisphere storm tracks? Climate Dynamics, 56. pp. 1145-1162. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05523-9

Dieppois, B., Capotondi, A., Pohl, B., Pan Chun, K., Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559 and Eden, J. (2021) ENSO diversity shows robust decadal variations that must be captured for accurate future projections. Communications Earth & Environment, 2 (1). 212. ISSN 2662-4435 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00285-6

Dittus, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9598-6869, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Robson, J. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Smith, D. M. and Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 (2021) Drivers of recent North Pacific decadal variability: the role of aerosol forcing. Earth's Future, 9 (12). e2021EF002249. ISSN 2328-4277 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002249

Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Sorensson, A. A., Almazroui, M., Dosio, A., Gutowski, W. J., Haarsma, R., Hamdi, R., Hewitson, B., Kwon, W.-T., Lamptey, B. L., Maraun, D., Stephenson, T. S., Takayabu, I., Terray, L., Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Zuo, Z. (2021) Linking global to regional climate change. In: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Pean, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekci, O., Yu, R. and Zhou, B. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.

Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2021) Recent trends in summer atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic/European region: is there a role for anthropogenic aerosols? Journal Of Climate, 34 (16). pp. 6777-6795. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0665.1

Edwards, T. L., Nowicki, S., Marzeion, B., Hock, R., Goelzer, H., Seroussi, H., Jourdain, N. C., Slater, D., Turner, F., Smith, C. J., McKenna, C. M., Simon, E., Abe-Ouchi, A., Gregory, J. M., Larour, E., Lipscomb, W. H., Payne, A. J., Shepherd, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Albrecht, T., Anderson, B., Asay-Davis, X., Aschwanden, A., Barthel, A., Bliss, A., Calov, R., Chambers, C., Champollion, N., Choi, Y., Cullather, R., Cuzzone, J., Dumas, C., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Fujita, K., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huss, M., Huybrechts, P., Immerzeel, W., Kleiner, T., Kraaijenbrink, P., Le clec'h, S., Lee, V., Leguy, G. R., Little, C. M., Lowry, D. P., Malles, J.-H., Martin, D. F., Maussion, F., Morlighem, M., O'Neill, J. F., Nias, I., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S., Quiquet, A., Radić, V., Reese, R., Rounce, D. R., Ruckamp, M., Sakai, A., Shafer, C., Schlegel, N.-J., Shannon, S., Smith, R. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7479-7778, Straneo, F., Sun, S., Tarasov, L., Trusel, L. D., Breedam, J. V., van de Wal, R., van den Broeke, M., Winkelmann, R., Zekollari, H., Zhao, C., Zhang, T. and Zwinger, T. (2021) Projected land ice contributions to 21st century sea level rise. Nature, 593. pp. 74-82. ISSN 0028-0836 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y

Endris, H. S., Hirons, L., Segele, Z. T., Gudoshava, M., Woolnough, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 and Artan, G. A. (2021) Evaluation of the skill of monthly precipitation forecasts from global prediction systems over the Greater Horn of Africa. Weather and Forecasting, 36 (4). pp. 1275-1298. ISSN 0882-8156 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0177.1

Feng, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4143-107X, Klingaman, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303 and Hodges, K. (2021) Poleward migration of western North Pacific tropical cyclones related to changes in cyclone seasonality. Nature Communications, 12. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26369-7

Feng, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4143-107X, Zhang, W., Zhu, Z., Chevuturi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2815-7221 and Chen, W. (2021) Variability and changes in Pearl River Delta water level: oceanic and atmospheric forcing perspectives. Journal of Hydrometeorology. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-21-0037.1

Feng, X., Li, H., Feng, X., Zhao, J. and Feng, W. (2021) Dependence of ocean wave return levels on water depth and sampling length: a focus on the South Yellow Sea. Ocean Engineering, 219. 108295. ISSN 0029-8018 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2020.108295

Ficchi, A., Cloke, H., Neves, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1201-5720, Woolnough, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514, Coughlan de Perez, E., Zsoter, E., Pinto, I., Meque, A. and Stephens, E. (2021) Beyond El Niño: unsung climate modes drive African floods. Weather and Climate Extremes, 33. 100345. ISSN 2212-0947 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100345

Gonzalez, P. L. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0154-0087, Brayshaw, D. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362 and Ziel, F. (2021) A new approach to extended-range multi-model forecasting: sequential learning algorithms. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/QJ.4177

Graffino, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8264-3250, Farneti, R. and Kucharski, F. (2021) Low-frequency variability of the Pacific Subtropical Cells as reproduced by coupled models and ocean reanalyses. Climate Dynamics, 56. pp. 3231-3254. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05639-6

Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Hodges, K. I., Vautrey, J. L. and Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 (2021) The role of tropopause polar vortices in the intensification of summer Arctic cyclones. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2 (4). pp. 1303-1324. ISSN 2698-4016 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1303-2021

Gray, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8658-362X, Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379, Ackerley, D. and Suri, D. (2021) Development of a prototype real-time sting-jet precursor tool for forecasters. Weather, 76 (11). pp. 369-373. ISSN 1477-8696 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3889

Guimaraes, B. d. S., Coelho, C. A. d. S., Woolnough, S. J., Kubota, P. Y., Bastarz, C. F., Figueroa, S. N., Bonatti, J. P. and de Souza, D. C. (2021) An inter-comparison performance assessment of a Brazilian global sub-seasonal prediction model against four sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project models. Climate Dynamics, 56. pp. 2359-2375. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05589-5

Guo, L., Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Bollasina, B., Turnock, S. T., Lund, M. T. and Zhang, L. (2021) Competing effects of aerosol reductions and circulation changes for future improvements in Beijing haze. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 21 (19). pp. 15299-15308. ISSN 1680-7375 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-15299-2021

Hansen, E. S., Sandvik, H., Erikstad, K. E., Yoccoz, N. G., Anker-Nilssen, T., Bader, J., Descamps, S., Hodges, K., Mesquita, M. d. S., Reiertsen, T. K. and Varpe, Ø. (2021) Centennial relationships between ocean temperature and Atlantic puffin production reveal shifting decennial trends. Global Change Biology, 27 (16). pp. 3753-3764. ISSN 1365-2486 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15665

Hardacre, C., Mulcahy, J. P., Pope, R. J., Jones, C. G., Rumbold, S. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8138-4541, Li, C., Johnson, C. and Turnock, S. T. (2021) Evaluation of SO2, SO42− and an updated SO2 dry deposition parameterization in UKESM1. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 21 (24). pp. 18465-18497. ISSN 1680-7324 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18465-2021

Herbert, R., Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Joshi, M., Highwood, E. and Frame, D. (2021) Nonlinear response of Asian summer monsoon precipitation to emission reductions in South and East Asia. Environmental Research Letters, 17 (1). 014005. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3b19

Hermans, T. H. J., Gregory, J. M., Palmer, M. D., Ringer, M. A., Katsman, C. A. and Slangen, A. B. A. (2021) Projecting global mean sea-level change using CMIP6 models. Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (5). e2020GL092064. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092064

Hertwig, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2483-2675, Ng, M., Grimmond, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3166-9415, Vidale, P. L. and McGuire, P. C. (2021) High-resolution global climate simulations: representation of cities. International Journal of Climatology, 41 (5). pp. 3266-3285. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7018

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Seneviratne, S. I., Zhang, X., Adnan, M., Badi, W., Dereczynski, C., Luca, A. D., Ghosh, S., Iskandar, I., Kossin, J., Lewis, S., Otto, F., Pinto, I., Satoh, M., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Wehner, M., Zhou, B. and Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2021) Weather and climate extreme events in a changing climate. In: Masson-Delmotte, V. P., Zhai, A., Pirani, S. L. and Connors, C. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 1513-1766. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.013

Senior, C. A., Marsham, J. H., Berthou, S., Burgin, L. E., Folwell, S. S., Kendon, E. J., Klein, C. M., Jones, R. G., Mittal, N., Rowell, D. P., Tomassini, L., Vischel, T., Becker, B., Birch, C. E., Crook, J., Dougill, A. J., Finney, D. L., Graham, R. J., Hart, N. C. G., Jack, C. D., Jackson, L. S., James, R., Koelle, B., Misiani, H., Mwalukanga, B., Parker, D. J., Stratton, R. A., Taylor, C. M., Tucker, S. O., Wainwright, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Washington, R. and Willet, M. R. (2021) Convection permitting regional climate change simulations for understanding future climate and informing decision making in Africa. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102 (6). E1206-E1223. ISSN 0003-0007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-20-0020.1

Shang, K., Liu, X. and Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 (2021) Climatology and physical mechanisms of the tropospheric warm cores over the Tibetan Plateau and its vicinity. Climate Dynamics, 57. pp. 953-974. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05749-1

Slivinski, L. C., Compo, G. P., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Whitaker, J. S., McColl, C., Allan, R. J., Brohan, P., Yin, X., Smith, C. A., Spencer, L. J., Vose, R. S., Rohrer, M., Conroy, R. P., Schuster, D. C., Kennedy, J. J., Ashcroft, L., Brönnimann, S., Brunet, M., Camuffo, D., Cornes, R., Cram, T. A., Domínguez-Castro, F., Freeman, J. E., Gergis, J., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Jones, P. D., Kubota, H., Lee, T. C., Lorrey, A. M., Luterbacher, J., Mock, C. J., Przybylak, R. K., Pudmenzky, C., Slonosky, V. C., Tinz, B., Trewin, B., Wang, X. L., Wilkinson, C., Wood, K. and Wyszyński, P. (2021) An evaluation of the performance of the twentieth century reanalysis version 3. Journal of Climate, 34 (4). pp. 1417-1438. ISSN 0894-8755 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0505.1

Smith, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7479-7778, George, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0396-0299 and Gregory, J. (2021) FAMOUS version xotzt (FAMOUS-ice): a GCM capable of energy- and water- conserving coupling to an ice sheet model. Geoscientific Model Development, 14 (9). pp. 5769-5787. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5769-2021

Smith, R. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7479-7778, Mathiot, P., Siahaan, A., Lee, V., Cornford, S. L., Gregory, J. M., Payne, A. J., Jenkins, A., Holland, P. R., Ridley, J. K. and Jones, C. G. (2021) Coupling the U.K. Earth System Model to dynamic models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 13 (10). e2021MS002520. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002520

Talib, J., Taylor, C.M., Duan, A. and Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2021) Intraseasonal soil moisture-atmosphere feedbacks on the Tibetan Plateau circulation. Journal of Climate, 34 (5). pp. 1789-1807. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0377.1

Tan, M. L., Liang, J., Samat, N., Chan, N. W., Haywood, J. M. and Hodges, K. (2021) Hydrological extremes and responses to climate change in the Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia, based on the CMIP6 HighResMIP experiments. Water, 13 (11). 1472. ISSN 2073-4441 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111472

Taye, M. T., Dyer, E., Charles, K. J. and Hirons, L. C. (2021) Potential predictability of the Ethiopian summer rains: understanding local variations and their implications for water management decisions. Science of the Total Environment, 755 (Part 1). 142604. ISSN 0048-9697 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142604

Thomas, S., Nicolau, S., Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379, Drew, D. and Bloomfield, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5616-1503 (2021) How well do atmospheric reanalyses reproduce observed winds in coastal regions of Mexico? Meteorological Applications, 28 (5). e2023. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2023

Thomas, S. R., Martinez-Alvarado, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5285-0379, Drew, D. and Bloomfield, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5616-1503 (2021) Drivers of extreme wind events in Mexico for wind power applications. International Journal of Climatology, 41 (S1). E2321-E2340. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6848

Torres-Alavez, A., Glazer, R., Giorgi, F., Coppola, E., Gao, X., Hodges, K., Das, S., Ashfaq, M., Reale, M. and Sines, T. (2021) Future projections in tropical cyclone activity over multiple CORDEX domains from RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE simulations. Climate Dynamics, 57. pp. 1507-1531. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05728-6

Valdivieso, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1738-7016, Peatman, S. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2511-7649 and Klingaman, N. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303 (2021) The influence of air‐sea coupling on forecasts of the 2016 Indian summer monsoon and its intraseasonal variability. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147 (734). pp. 202-228. ISSN 0035-9009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3914

Vidale, P. L., Hodges, K., Vanniere, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8600-400X, Davini, P., Roberts, M. J., Strommen, K., Weisheimer, A., Plesca, E. and Corti, S. (2021) Impact of stochastic physics and model resolution on the simulation of tropical cyclones in climate GCMs. Journal of Climate, 34 (11). pp. 4315-4341. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0507.1

Villafuerte II, M. Q., Lambrento, J. C. R., Hodges, K. I., Cruz, F. T., Cinco, T. A. and Narisma, G. T. (2021) Sensitivity of tropical cyclones to convective parameterization schemes in RegCM4. Climate Dynamics, 56. pp. 1625-1642. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05553-3

Volonte, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-952X, Muetzelfeldt, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6851-7351, Schiemann, R., Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Klingaman, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303 (2021) Magnitude, scale, and dynamics of the 2020 Mei Yu rains and floods over China. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. ISSN 0256-1530 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1085-z

Wainwright, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Black, E. and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2021) Future changes in wet and dry season characteristics in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 22 (9). pp. 2339-2357. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-21-0017.1

Wainwright, C. M., Finney, D. L., Kilavi, M., Black, E. and Marsham, J. H. (2021) Extreme rainfall in East Africa October 2019 – January 2020 and context under future climate change. Weather, 76 (1). pp. 26-31. ISSN 0043-1656 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3824

Wainwright, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Marsham, J. H., Rowell, D. P., Finney, D. L. and Black, E. (2021) Future changes in seasonality in Eastern Africa from regional simulations with explicit and parametrised convection. Journal of Climate, 34 (4). pp. 1367-1385. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0450.1

Wang, B., Biasutti, M., Byrne, M. P., Castro, C., Chang, C.-P., Cook, K., Fu, R., Grimm, A. M., Ha, K.-J., Hendon, H., Kitoh, A., Krishnan, R., Lee, J.-Y., Li, J., Liu, J., Moise, A., Pascale, S., Roxy, M. K., Seth, A., Sui, C.-H., Turner, A., Yang, S., Yun, K.-S., Zhang, L. and Zhou, T. (2021) Monsoons climate change assessment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102 (1). E1-E19. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0335.1

Wang, J., Church, J. A., Zhang, X., Gregory, J. M., Zanna, L. and Chen, X. (2021) Evaluation of the local sea-level budget at tide gauges since 1958. Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (20). e2021GL094502. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094502

Wohland, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8336-0009, Brayshaw, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362 and Pfenninger, S. (2021) Mitigating a century of European renewable variability with transmission and informed siting. Environmental Research Letters, 16 (6). 064026. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abff89

Wu, Q., Zhang, X., Church, J. A., Hu, J. and Gregory, J. M. (2021) Evolving patterns of sterodynamic sea-level rise under mitigation scenarios and insights from linear system theory. Climate Dynamics, 57. pp. 635-656. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05727-7

Yang, G.-Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7450-3477, Ferrett, S., Woolnough, S., Methven, J. and Holloway, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9903-8989 (2021) Real-time identification of equatorial waves and evaluation of waves in global forecasts. Weather and Forecasting, 36 (1). pp. 171-193. ISSN 0882-8156 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0144.1

Zanchettin, D., Bruni, S., Raicich, F., Lionello, P., Adloff, F., Androsov, A., Antonioli, F., Artale, V., Carminati, E., Ferrarin, C., Fofonova, F., Nicholls, R. J., Rubinetti, S., Rubino, A., Sannino, G., Spada, G., Thiéblemont, R., Tsimplis, M., Umgiesser, G., Vignudelli, S., Wöppelmann, G. and Zerbini, S. (2021) Sea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends (review article). Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 21 (8). pp. 2463-2678. ISSN 1684-9981 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021

Zhang, B., Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 and Jin, R. (2021) Forced decadal changes in summer precipitation characteristics over China: the roles of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols. Journal of Meteorological Research, 34 (6). pp. 1226-1241. ISSN 2198-0934 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-020-0060-4

Zhang, J., Furtado, K., Turnock, S. T., Mulcahy, J. P., Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Booth, B. B., Sexton, D., Wu, T., Zhang, F. and Liu, Q. (2021) The role of anthropogenic aerosols in the anomalous cooling from 1960 to 1990 in the CMIP6 Earth System Models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 21 (24). pp. 18609-18627. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18609-2021

Zhang, L., Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Dunstone, N. J., Paynter, D. J., Hu, S., Bollasina, M., Li, D., Shonk, J. K. P. and Zou, L. (2021) Future changes in Beijing haze events under different anthropogenic aerosol emission scenarios. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 21. pp. 7499-7514. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-7499-2021

Zhao, X., Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 and Lu, R. (2021) Interdecadal weakening of the cross-equatorial flows over the Maritime Continent during the boreal summer in the mid-1990s: drivers and physical processes. Climate Dynamics, 57. pp. 55-72. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05692-1

Zika, J. D., Gregory, J. M., McDonagh, E. L., Marzocchi, A. and Clement, L. (2021) Recent water mass changes reveal mechanisms of ocean warming. Journal of Climate, 34 (9). pp. 3461-3479. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0355.1

de Andrade, F. M., Young, M. P., MacLeod, D., Hirons, L. C., Woolnough, S. J. and Black, E. (2021) Subseasonal precipitation prediction for Africa: forecast evaluation and sources of predictability. Weather and Forecasting, 36 (1). pp. 265-284. ISSN 0882-8156 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0054.1

2020

Allan, R. P., Barlow, M., Byrne, M. P., Cherchi, A., Douville, H., Fowler, H. J., Gan, T. Y., Pendergrass, A. G., Rosenfeld, D., Swann, A. L. S., Wilcox, L. J. and Zolina, O. (2020) Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1472 (1). pp. 49-75. ISSN 1749-6632 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14337

Andrews, M. B., Ridley, J. K., Wood, R. A., Andrews, T., Blockley, E. W., Booth, B., Burke, E., Dittus, A. J., Florek, P., Gray, L. J., Haddad, S., Hardiman, S. C., Hermanson, L., Hodson, D., Hogan, E., Jones, G. S., Knight, J. R., Kuhlbrodt, T., Misios, S., Mizielinski, M. S., Ringer, M. A., Robson, J. and Sutton, R. T. (2020) Historical simulations with HadGEM3-GC3.1 for CMIP6. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12 (6). e2019MS001995. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001995

Andrews, T., Andrews, M. B., Bodas‐Salcedo, A., Jones, G. S., Kuhlbrodt, T., Manners, J., Menary, M. B., Ridley, J., Ringer, M. A., Sellar, A. A., Senior, C. A. and Tang, Y. (2020) Forcings, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in HadGEM3‐GC3.1 and UKESM1. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11 (12). pp. 4377-4394. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001866

Archibald, A. T., O'Connor, F. M., Abraham, N. L., Archer-Nicholls, S., P. Chipperfield, M., Dalvi, M., Folberth, G. A., Dennison, F., Dhomse, S. S., Griffiths, P. T., Hardacre, C., Hewitt, A. J., Hill, R. S., Johnson, C. E., Keeble, J., Köhler, M. O., Morgenstern, O., Mulcahy, J. P., Ordóñez, C., Rumbold, S. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8138-4541, Pope, R. J., Russo, M. R., Savage, N. H., Sellar, A., Stringer, M., Wild, O., Turnock, S. T. and Zeng, G. (2020) Description and evaluation of the UKCA stratosphere–troposphere chemistry scheme (StratTrop vn 1.0) implemented in UKESM1. Geoscientific Model Development, 13 (3). pp. 1223-1266. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1223-2020

Bador, M., Boé, J., Terray, L., Alexander, L. V., Baker, A., Bellucci, A., Haarsma, R., Koenigk, T., Moine, M.-P., Lohmann, K., Putrasahan, D. A., Roberts, C., Roberts, M., Scoccimarro, E., Schiemann, R., Seddon, J., Senan, R., Valcke, S. and Vanniere, B. (2020) Impact of higher spatial atmospheric resolution on precipitation extremes over land in global climate models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125 (3). ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jd032184

Barton, E. J., Taylor, C. M., Parker, D. J., Turner, A. G., Belusic, D., Boeing, S. J., Brooke, J. K., Harlow, R. C., Harris, P. P., Hunt, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755, Jayakumar, A. and Mitra, A. K. (2020) A case-study of land-atmosphere coupling during monsoon onset in northern India. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (731). pp. 2891-2905. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3538

Bastos, A., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Sitch, S., Pongratz, J., Fan, L., Wigneron, J. P., Weber, U., Reichstein, M., Fu, Z., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Haverd, V., Jain, A. K., Joetzjer, E., Knauer, J., Lienert, S., Loughran, T., McGuire, P. C., Tian, H., Viovy, N. and Zaehle, S. (2020) Direct and seasonal legacy effects of the 2018 heat wave and drought on European ecosystem productivity. Science Advances, 6 (24). eaba2724. ISSN 2375-2548 doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba2724

Bevacqua, E., Vousdoukas, M. I., Zappa, G., Hodges, K., Shepherd, T. G., Maraun, D., Mentaschi, L. and Feyen, L. (2020) More meteorological events that drive compound coastal flooding are projected under climate change. Communications Earth & Environment, 1 (1). 47. ISSN 2662-4435 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00044-z

Bloch-Johnson, J., Rugenstein, M. and Abbot, D. S. (2020) Spatial radiative feedbacks from internal variability using multiple regression. Journal of Climate, 33 (10). pp. 4121-4140. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0396.1

Bloomfield, H. C., Brayshaw, D. J. and Charlton-Perez, A. J. (2020) Characterizing the winter meteorological drivers of the European electricity system using targeted circulation types. Meteorological Applications, 27 (1). e1858. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1858

Boult, V. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7572-5469, Asfaw, D. T., Young, M., Maidment, R., Mwangi, E., Ambani, M., Waruru, S., Otieno, G., Todd, M. C. and Black, E. (2020) Evaluation and validation of TAMSAT-ALERT soil moisture and WRSI for use in drought anticipatory action. Meteorological Applications, 27 (5). e1959. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1959

Braghiere, R. K., Quaife, T., Black, E., Ryu, Y., Chen, Q., De Kauwe, M. G. and Baldocchi, D. (2020) Influence of sun zenith angle on canopy clumping and the resulting impacts on photosynthesis. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 291. 108065. ISSN 0168-1923 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108065

Brayshaw, D. J., Halford, A., Smith, S. and Kjeld, J. (2020) Quantifying the potential for improved management of weather risk using subseasonal forecasting: the case of UK telecommunications infrastructure. Meteorological Applications, 27 (1). e1849. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1849

Coker, P. J., Bloomfield, H. C., Drew, D. R. and Brayshaw, D. J. (2020) Interannual weather variability and the challenges for Great Britain’s electricity market design. Renewable Energy, 150. pp. 509-522. ISSN 0960-1481 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.12.082

Collins, M., Barreiro, M., Frölicher, T., Kang, S., Karumuri, A., Roxy Koll, M., Singh, D., Tedeschi, R. G., Wang, G., Wilcox, L. and Wu, B. (2020) Frontiers in climate predictions and projections. Frontiers in climate, 2. ISSN 2624-9553 doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2020.571245

Craig, P. M. and Hawkins, E. (2020) Digitizing observations from the Met Office Daily Weather Reports for 1900–1910 using citizen scientist volunteers. Geoscience Data Journal, 7 (2). pp. 116-134. ISSN 2049-6060 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.93

Craig, P. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9213-4599, Ferreira, D. and Methven, J. (2020) Monsoon‐induced zonal asymmetries in moisture transport cause anomalous Pacific precipitation minus evaporation. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (18). e2020GL088. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088659

Cui, J., Piao, S., Huntingford, C., Wang, X., Lian, X., Chevuturi, A., Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Kooperman, G. J. (2020) Vegetation forcing modulates global land monsoon and water resources in a CO2-enriched climate. Nature Communications, 11. 5184. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18992-7

Di Capua, G., Runge, J., Donner, R. V., van den Hurk, B., Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Vellore, R., Krishnan, R. and Coumou, D. (2020) Dominant patterns of boreal summer interactions between tropics and mid-latitude: causal relationships and the role of timescales. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 1 (2). pp. 519-539. ISSN 2698-4024 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-519-2020

Dittus, A. J., Hawkins, E., Wilcox, L. J., Sutton, R., Smith, C. J., Andrews, M. B. and Forster, P. M. (2020) Sensitivity of historical climate simulations to uncertain aerosol forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (13). e2019GL085806. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085806

Dong, B., Sutton, R. T., Shaffrey, L. and Wilcox, L. J. (2020) Attribution of 2012 extreme climate events: does air-sea interaction matter? Climate Dynamics, 55 (5-6). pp. 1225-1245. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05321-3

Dosio, A., Turner, A. G., Tchio, A. T., Sylla, M. B., Lennard, C., Jones, R., Terray, L., Nikulin, G. and Hewitson, B. (2020) A tale of two futures: contrasting scenarios of future precipitation for West Africa from an ensemble of regional climate models. Environmental Research Letters, 15 (6). 064007. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab7fde

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Rugenstein, M., Bloch-Johnson, J., Gregory, J., Andrews, T., Mauritsen, T., Li, C., Frӧlicher, T. L., Paynter, D., Danabasoglu, G., Yang, S., Dufresne, J.-L., Cao, L., Schmidt, G. A., Abe-Ouchi, A., Geoffroy, O. and Knutti, R. (2020) Equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated by equilibrating climate models. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (4). e2019GL083898. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083898

Sainsbury, E. M., Schiemann, R. K. H., Hodges, K. I., Shaffrey, L. C., Baker, A. J. and Bhatia, K. T. (2020) How important are post-tropical cyclones for European windstorm risk? Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (18). e2020GL089853. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089853

Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Athanasiadis, P., Barriopedro, D., Doblas-Reyes, F., Lohmann, K., Roberts, M. J., Sein, D. V., Roberts, C. D., Terray, L. and Vidale, P. L. (2020) Northern Hemisphere blocking simulation in current climate models: evaluating progress from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to 6 and sensitivity to resolution. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 1 (1). pp. 277-292. ISSN 2698-4024 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-277-2020

Schäfler, A., Harvey, B., Methven, J., Doyle, J. D., Rahm, S., Reitebuch, O., Weiler, F. and Witschas, B. (2020) Observation of jet stream winds during NAWDEX and characterization of systematic meteorological analysis errors. Monthly Weather Review, 148 (7). pp. 2889-2907. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0229.1

Sellar, A. A., Walton, J., Jones, C. G., Wood, R., Abraham, N. L., Andrejczuk, M., Andrews, M. B., Andrews, T., Archibald, A. T., de Mora, L., Dyson, H., Elkington, M., Ellis, R., Florek, P., Good, P., Gohar, L., Haddad, S., Hardiman, S. C., Hogan, E., Iwi, A., Jones, C. D., Johnson, B., Kelley, D. I., Kettleborough, J., Knight, J. R., Köhler, M. O., Kuhlbrodt, T., Liddicoat, S., Linova‐Pavlova, I., Mizielinski, M. S., Morgenstern, O., Mulcahy, J., Neininger, E., O'Connor, F. M., Petrie, R., Ridley, J., Rioual, J.‐C., Roberts, M., Robertson, E., Rumbold, S., Seddon, J., Shepherd, H., Shim, S., Stephens, A., Teixiera, J. C., Tang, Y., Williams, J., Wiltshire, A. and Griffiths, P. T. (2020) Implementation of U.K. Earth system models for CMIP6. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12 (4). e2019MS001946. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001946

Senior, C. A., Jones, C. G., Wood, R. A., Sellar, A., Belcher, S., Klein‐Tank, A., Sutton, R., Walton, J., Lawrence, B., Andrews, T. and Mulcahy, J. P. (2020) UK community Earth system modelling for CMIP6. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12 (9). e2019MS002004. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002004

Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T. and Zwinger, T. (2020) ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century. The Cryosphere, 14 (9). pp. 3033-3070. ISSN 1994-0424 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020

Shonk, J. K. P., Turner, A. G., Chevuturi, A., Wilcox, L. J., Dittus, A. J. and Hawkins, E. (2020) Uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing impacts the simulated global monsoon in the 20th century. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 20 (23). pp. 14903-14915. ISSN 1680-7375 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14903-2020

Silvy, Y., Guilyardi, E., Sallée, J.-B. and Durack, P. J. (2020) Human-induced changes to the global ocean water masses and their time of emergence. Nature Climate Change, 10. pp. 1030-1036. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0878-x

Sinha, B., Sévellec, F., Robson, J. and Nurser, G. (2020) Surging of global surface temperature due to decadal legacy of ocean heat uptake. Journal of Climate, 33 (18). pp. 8025-8045. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0874.1

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Smith, R. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7479-7778, George, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0396-0299 and Gregory, J. M. (2020) FAMOUS version xotzb (FAMOUS-ice): a GCM capable of energy- and water-conserving coupling to an ice sheet model. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-207 (In Press)

Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2020) ESD Ideas: global climate response scenarios for IPCC assessments. Earth System Dynamics, 11. pp. 751-754. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-751-2020

Talib, J., Woolnough, S., Klingaman, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303 and Holloway, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9903-8989 (2020) The effect of atmosphere-ocean coupling on the sensitivity of the ITCZ to convective mixing. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12 (12). e2020MS002322. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002322

Tamarin-Brodsky, T., Hodges, K., Hoskins, B. J. and Shepherd, T. G. (2020) Changes in northern hemisphere temperature variability shaped by regional warming patterns. Nature Geoscience, 13. pp. 414-421. ISSN 1752-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-0576-3

Tian, F., Dong, B., Robson, J., Sutton, R. and Wilcox, L. (2020) Processes shaping the spatial pattern and seasonality of the surface air temperature response to anthropogenic forcing. Climate Dynamics, 54 (9-10). pp. 3959-3975. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05211-8

Todd, A., Zanna, L., Couldrey, M., Gregory, J., Wu, Q., Church, J. A., Farneti, R., Navarro-Labastida, R., Lyu, K., Saenko, O., Yang, D. and Zhang, X. (2020) Ocean-only FAFMIP: understanding regional patterns of ocean heat content and dynamic sea level change. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12 (8). e2019MS002027. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002027

Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Bhat, G. S., Martin, G. M., Parker, D. J., Taylor, C.M., Mitra, A. K., Tripathi, S. N., Milton, S., Rajagopal, E. N., Evans, J. G., Morrison, R., Pattnaik, S., Sekhar, M., Bhattacharya, B. K., Madan, R., Govindankutty, M., Fletcher, J. K., Willetts, P. D., Menon, A., Marsham, J. H., Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755, Chakraborty, T., George, G., Krishnan, M., Sarangi, C., Belusic, D., Garcia-Carreras, L., Brooks, M., Webster, S., Brooke, J. K., Fox, C., Harlow, R. C., Langridge, J. M., Jayakumar, A., Boeing, S. J., Halliday, O., Bowles, J., Kent, J., O'Sullivan, D., Wilson, A., Woods, C., Rogers, S., Smout-Day, R., Tiddeman, D., Desai, D., Nigam, R., Paleri, S., Sattar, A., Smith, M., Anderson, D., Bauguitte, S., Carling, R., Chan, C., Devereau, S., Gratton, G., MacLeod, D., Nott, G., Pickering, M., Price, H., Rastall, S., Reed, C., Trembath, J., Woolley, A., Volonté, A. and New, B. (2020) Interaction of convective organisation with monsoon precipitation, atmosphere, surface and sea: the 2016 INCOMPASS field campaign in India. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (731). pp. 2828-2852. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3633

Volonté, A., Clark, P. A. and Gray, S. L. (2020) Idealised simulations of cyclones with robust symmetrically-unstable sting jets. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 1 (1). pp. 63-91. ISSN 2698-4024 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-63-2020

Volonté, A., Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Menon, A. (2020) Airmass analysis of the processes driving the progression of the Indian summer monsoon. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (731). pp. 2949-2980. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3700

Wilcox, L. J., Liu, Z., Samset, B. H., Hawkins, E., Lund, M. T., Nordling, K., Undorf, S., Bollasina, M., Ekman, A. M. L., Krishnan, S., Merikanto, J. and Turner, A. G. (2020) Accelerated increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation from future aerosol reductions. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 20 (20). pp. 11955-11977. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020

Wohland, J., Brayshaw, D. J., Bloomfield, H. and Wild, M. (2020) European multidecadal solar variability badly captured in all centennial reanalyses except CERA20C. Environmental Research Letters, 15 (10). ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba7e6

Woiwode, W., Dörnbrack, A., Polichtchouk, I., Johansson, S., Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Höpfner, M., Ungermann, J. and Friedl-Vallon, F. (2020) Technical note: lowermost-stratospheric moist bias in ECMWF IFS model diagnosed from airborne GLORIA observations during winter/spring 2016. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 20. pp. 15379-15387. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-367

Wolf, G., Czaja, A., Brayshaw, D. J. and Klingaman, N. P. (2020) Connection between sea surface anomalies and atmospheric quasi-stationary waves. Journal of Climate, 33 (1). pp. 201-212. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0751.1

Wu, W., Emerton, R., Duan, Q., Wood, A. W., Wetterhall, F. and Robertson, D. E. (2020) Ensemble flood forecasting: current status and future opportunities. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 7 (3). e1432. ISSN 2049-1948 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1432

Yool, A., Palmiéri, J., Jones, C. G., Sellar, A. A., de Mora, L., Kuhlbrodt, T., Popova, E. E., Mulcahy, J. P., Wiltshire, A., Rumbold, S. T., Stringer, M., Hill, R. S. R., Tang, Y., Walton, J., Blaker, A., Nurser, A. J. G., Coward, A. C., Hirschi, J., Woodward, S., Kelley, D. I., Ellis, R. and Rumbold‐Jones, S. (2020) Spin‐up of UK Earth system model 1 (UKESM1) for CMIP6. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12 (8). e2019MS001933. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001933

Young, H. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7997-9471 and Klingaman, N. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303 (2020) Skill of seasonal rainfall and temperature forecasts for East Africa. Weather and Forecasting, 35 (5). pp. 1783-1800. ISSN 0882-8156 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0061.1

Young, M., Heinrich, V., Black, E. and Asfaw, D. T. (2020) Optimal spatial scales for seasonal forecasts over Africa. Environmental Research Letters, 15 (9). ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab94e9

Zhang, W., Li, W., Zhu, L., Ma, Y., Yang, L., Lott, F., Li, C., Dong, S., Tett, S., Dong, B. and Sun, Y. (2020) Anthropogenic influence on 2018 summer persistent heavy and daily extreme rainfall in central western China. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101 (1). S65-S70. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0147.1

Zhou, T., Zhang, W., Zhang, L., Zhang, X., Qian, Y., Peng, D., Ma, S. and Dong, B. (2020) The dynamic and thermodynamic processes dominating the reduction of global land monsoon precipitation driven by anthropogenic aerosols emission. Science China Earth Sciences, 63 (7). pp. 919-933. ISSN 1869-1897 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-019-9613-9

de Mora, L., Sellar, A. A., Yool, A., Palmieri, J., Smith, R. S., Kuhlbrodt, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2328-6729, Parker, R. J., Walton, J., Blackford, J. C. and Jones, C. G. (2020) Earth system music: music generated from the United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM1). Geoscience Communications, 3. pp. 263-278. ISSN 2569-7110 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-263-2020

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2019

Asher, C., Britton, B., Coe, H., Collins, M., Few, S., Finlayson, B., Gilbert, A., Graven, H., Grimmond, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3166-9415, Haigh, J. D., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Highwood, E., Lawrence, B., Marshall, S., Marsham, J., Shepherd, J., Shine, K. and Woolings, T. (2019) 30-second climate: the 50 most topical features, measurements and phenomena, each explained in half a minute. Ivy Press. ISBN 9781782405504

Baker, A. J., Schiemann, R., Hodges, K. I., Demory, M.-E., Mizielinski, M. S., Roberts, M. J., Shaffrey, L. C., Strachan, J. and Vidale, P. L. (2019) Enhanced climate change response of wintertime North Atlantic circulation, cyclonic activity and precipitation in a 25 km-resolution global atmospheric model. Journal of Climate, 32 (22). pp. 7763-7781. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0054.1

Beverley, J. D., Woolnough, S. J., Baker, L. H., Johnson, S. J. and Weisheimer, A. (2019) The northern hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection in a seasonal forecast model and its relationship to European summer forecast skill. Climate Dynamics, 52 (5-6). pp. 3729-3771. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4371-4

Bilbao, R. A. F., Gregory, J. M., Bouttes, N., Palmer, M. D. and Stott, P. (2019) Attribution of ocean temperature change to anthropogenic and natural forcings using the temporal, vertical and geographical structure. Climate Dynamics, 53. pp. 5389-5413. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04910-1

Boult, V. L., Fishlock, V., Quaife, T., Hawkins, E., Moss, C., Lee, P. C. and Sibly, R. M. (2019) Human‐driven habitat conversion is a more immediate threat to Amboseli elephants than climate change. Conservation Science and Practice, 1 (9). pp. 1-10. ISSN 2578-4854 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.87

Braghiere, R. K., Quaife, T., Black, E., He, L. and Chen, J. M. (2019) Underestimation of global photosynthesis in Earth System Models due to representation of vegetation structure. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 33 (11). pp. 1358-1369. ISSN 1944-9224 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GB006135

Brooks, J., Allan, J. D., Williams, P. I., Liu, D., Fox, C., Haywood, J., Langridge, J. M., Highwood, E. J., Kompalli, S. K., O'Sullivan, D., Babu, S. S., Satheesh, S. K., Turner, A. G. and Coe, H. (2019) Vertical and horizontal distribution of sub-micron aerosol chemical composition and physical characteristics across Northern India, during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 19. pp. 5615-5634. ISSN 1680-7324 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-1109

Ceppi, P. and Gregory, J. M. (2019) A refined model for the Earth's global energy balance. Climate Dynamics, 53 (7-8). pp. 4781-4797. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04825-x

Charlton-Perez, A. J., Aldridge, R. W., Grams, C. M. and Lee, R. (2019) Winter pressures on the UK health system dominated by the Greenland blocking weather regime. Weather and Climate Extremes, 25. 100218. ISSN 2212-0947 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100218

Chen, W. and Dong, B. (2019) Anthropogenic impacts on recent decadal change in temperature extremes over China: relative roles of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols. Climate Dynamics, 52 (5-6). ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4342-9

Chen, W., Dong, B., Wilcox, L., Luo, F., Dunstone, N. and Highwood, E. J. (2019) Attribution of recent trends in temperature extremes over China: role of changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions over Asia. Journal Of Climate, 32. pp. 7539-7560. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0777.1

Chen, Y., Chen, W., Su, Q., Luo, F., Sparrow, S., Tian, F., Dong, B., Tett, S., Lott, F. and Wallom, D. (2019) Anthropogenic warming has substantially increased the likelihood of July 2017-like heat waves over Central-Eastern China. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0087.1

Chevuturi, A., Turner, A. G., Woolnough, S. J., Martin, G. M. and MacLachlan, C. (2019) Indian summer monsoon onset forecast skill in the UK Met Office initialized coupled seasonal forecasting system (GloSea5-GC2). Climate Dynamics, 52 (11). pp. 6599-6617. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4536-1

Curio, J., Schiemann, R., Hodges, K. and Turner, A. G. (2019) Climatology of Tibetan Plateau Vortices in reanalysis data and a high-resolution global climate model. Journal of Climate, 32 (6). pp. 1933-1950. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0021.1

Czaja, A., Frankignoul, C., Minobe, S. and Vanniere, B. (2019) Simulating the midlatitude atmospheric circulation: what might we gain from high-resolution modeling of air-sea interactions? Current Climate Change Reports, 5. pp. 390-406. ISSN 2198-6061 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00148-5

Demott, C. A., Klingaman, N., Tseng, W.-L., Burt, M. A., Gao, Y. and Randall, D. A. (2019) The convection connection: how ocean feedbacks affect tropical mean moisture and MJO propagation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 124 (22). pp. 11910-11931. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031015

Dentith, J. E., Ivanovic, R. F., Gregoire, L. J., Tindall, J. C. and Smith, R. (2019) Ocean circulation drifts in multi-millennial climate simulations: the role of salinity corrections and climate feedbacks. Climate Dynamics, 52 (3-4). pp. 1761-1781. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4243-y

Dong, B., Wilcox, L. J., Highwood, E. J. and Sutton, R. T. (2019) Impacts of recent decadal changes in Asian aerosols on the East Asian summer monsoon: roles of aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions. Climate Dynamics, 53 (5-6). pp. 3235-3256. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04698-0 (Dong, B., Wilcox, L.J., Highwood, E.J. et al. Clim Dyn (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04698-0)

Drew, D. R., Coker, P. J., Bloomfield, H. C., Brayshaw, D. J., Barlow, J. F. and Richards, A. (2019) Sunny windy Sundays. Renewable Energy, 138. pp. 870-875. ISSN 0960-1481 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.02.029

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2017

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