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Jump to: Dynamical Controls on Regional Aspects of CLimate Change (DCRACC) | Dynamical controls on regional aspects of climate change: Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award | EPSRC Centre for Doctoral Training in the Mathematics of Planet Earth | New models for storm track variability | The Cult of Saints: a christendom-wide study of its origin, spread and development (COS) | Understanding atmospheric circulation from a surface perspective (UACSURF) | Understanding the atmospheric circulation response to climate change (ACRCC)

Number of items: 88.

Dynamical Controls on Regional Aspects of CLimate Change (DCRACC)

Sandu, I., van Niekerk, A., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Vosper, S. B., Zadra, A., Bacmeister, J., Beljaars, A., Brown, A. R., Dörnbrack, A., McFarlane, N., Pithan, F. and Svensson, G. (2019) Impacts of orography on large-scale atmospheric circulation. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2. 10. ISSN 2397-3722 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0065-9

Byrne, N. J. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2018) Seasonal persistence of circulation anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere, and its implications for the troposphere. Journal of Climate, 31 (9). pp. 3467-3483. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0557.1

Yamashita, Y., Akiyoshi, H., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Takahashi, M. (2015) The combined influences of westerly phase of the quasi biennial oscillation and 11-year solar maximum conditions on the Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter circulation. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 93 (6). pp. 629-644. ISSN 0026-1165 doi: https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-054

Ceppi, P., Zappa, G., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Gregory, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644 (2018) Fast and slow components of the extratropical atmospheric circulation response to CO2 forcing. Journal of Climate, 31 (3). pp. 1091-1105. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0323.1

Ceppi, P. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2017) Contributions of climate feedbacks to changes in atmospheric circulation. Journal of Climate, 30 (22). pp. 9097-9118. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0189.1

Byrne, N. J., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Woollings, T. and Plumb, R. A. (2017) Non-stationarity in Southern Hemisphere climate variability associated with the seasonal breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex. Journal of Climate, 30 (18). pp. 7125-7139. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0097.1

van Niekerk, A., Scinocca, J. F. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2017) The modulation of stationary waves, and their response to climate change, by parameterized orographic drag. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 74 (8). pp. 2557-2574. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0085.1

Zappa, G. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2017) Storylines of atmospheric circulation change for European regional climate impact assessment. Journal of Climate, 30 (16). pp. 6561-6577. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0807.1

Shepherd, T.G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2016) Effects of a warming Arctic. Science, 353 (6303). pp. 989-990. ISSN 1095-9203 doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aag2349

van Niekerk, A., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Vosper, S. B. and Webster, S. (2016) Sensitivity of resolved and parameterized surface drag to changes in resolution and parameterization. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (699). pp. 2300-2313. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2821

Byrne, N. J., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Woollings, T. and Plumb, R. A. (2016) Annular modes and apparent eddy feedbacks in the Southern Hemisphere. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (8). pp. 3897-3902. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068851

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2016) A common framework for approaches to extreme event attribution. Current Climate Change Reports, 2. pp. 28-38. ISSN 2198-6061 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0033-y

Overland, J. E., Dethloff, K., Francis, J. A., Hall, R. J., Hanna, E., Kim, S.-J., Screen, J. A., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Vihma, T. (2016) Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic. Nature Climate Change, 6 (11). pp. 992-999. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3121

Pithan, F., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Zappa, G. and Sandu, I. (2016) Climate model biases in jet streams, blocking and storm tracks resulting from missing orographic drag. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (13). pp. 7231-7240. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069551

Boljka, L. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2018) A multiscale asymptotic theory of extratropical wave–mean flow interaction. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 75 (6). pp. 1833-1852. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-17-0307.1

Dynamical controls on regional aspects of climate change: Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award

Shepherd, T.G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2016) Effects of a warming Arctic. Science, 353 (6303). pp. 989-990. ISSN 1095-9203 doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aag2349

EPSRC Centre for Doctoral Training in the Mathematics of Planet Earth

Saggioro, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9543-6338, Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Knight, J. (2024) Probabilistic causal network modelling of Southern Hemisphere jet sub-seasonal to seasonal predictability. Journal of Climate, 37 (10). pp. 3055-3071. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0425.1

Falkena, S. K. J., de Wiljes, J., Weisheimer, A. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2022) Detection of interannual ensemble forecast signals over the North Atlantic and Europe using atmospheric circulation regimes. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 148 (742). pp. 434-453. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4213

Falkena, S. K. J., de Wiljes, J., Weisheimer, A. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2020) Revisiting the identification of wintertime atmospheric circulation regimes in the Euro-Atlantic sector. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146. pp. 2801-2814. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3818

New models for storm track variability

Li, C., Michel, C., Graff, L. S., Bethke, I., Zappa, G., Bracegirdle, T. J., Fischer, E., Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Iversen, T., King, M. P., Krishnan, H., Lierhammer, L., Mitchell, D., Scinocca, J., Shiogama, H., Stone, D. A. and Wettstein, J. J. (2018) Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5C and 2.0C warming and implications for regional impacts. Earth System Dynamics, 9 (2). pp. 359-382. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-359-2018

The Cult of Saints: a christendom-wide study of its origin, spread and development (COS)

Papaconstantinou, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2307-9607 (2020) Hagiography in the archives: real-life miracles and the sacred economy in eighth-century Egypt. In: Déroche, V., Ward-Perkins, B. and Wisniewski, R. (eds.) Culte des saints et littérature hagiographique. Centre de recherche d’Histoire et Civilisation de Byzance, Monographies, 55. Peeters, Leuven, pp. 55-75. ISBN 9789042943216

Understanding atmospheric circulation from a surface perspective (UACSURF)

Understanding the atmospheric circulation response to climate change (ACRCC)

Shepherd, T.G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2016) Effects of a warming Arctic. Science, 353 (6303). pp. 989-990. ISSN 1095-9203 doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aag2349

Osman, M., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Vera, C. S. (2022) The combined influence of the stratospheric polar vortex and ENSO on zonal asymmetries in the Southern Hemisphere upper tropospheric circulation during austral spring and summer. Climate Dynamics, 59 (9-10). pp. 2949-2964. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06225-0

Monge-Sanz, B. M., Bozzo, A., Byrne, N., Chipperfield, M. P., Diamantakis, M., Flemming, J., Gray, L. J., Hogan, R. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3180-5157, Jones, L., Magnusson, L., Polichtchouk, I., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Wedi, N. and Weisheimer, A. (2022) A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 22. pp. 4277-4302. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022

Tamarin-Brodsky, T., Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Hoskins, B. J. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2022) A simple model for interpreting temperature variability and its higher-order changes. Journal of Climate, 35 (1). pp. 387-403. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0310.1

Sillmann, J., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, van den Hurk, B., Hazeleger, W., Martius, O., Slingo, J. and Zscheischler, J. (2021) Event-based storylines to address climate risk. Earth's Future, 9 (2). ISSN 2328-4277 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001783

Zappa, G., Ceppi, P. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2021) Eurasian cooling in response to Arctic sea-ice loss is not proved by maximum covariance analysis. Nature Climate Change, 11. pp. 106-108. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00982-8

van Garderen, L., Feser, F. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2021) A methodology for attributing the role of climate change in extreme events: a global spectrally nudged storyline. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), 21 (1). pp. 171-186. ISSN 1684-9981 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-171-2021

Bevacqua, E., Zappa, G. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2020) Shorter cyclone clusters modulate changes in European wintertime precipitation extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 15 (12). 124005. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abbde7

Bevacqua, E., Vousdoukas, M. I., Zappa, G., Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Maraun, D., Mentaschi, L. and Feyen, L. (2020) More meteorological events that drive compound coastal flooding are projected under climate change. Communications Earth & Environment, 1 (1). 47. ISSN 2662-4435 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00044-z

Leung, T. Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0056-284X, Leutbecher, M., Reich, S. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2020) Impact of the mesoscale range on error growth and the limits to atmospheric predictability. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 77 (11). pp. 3769-3779. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-19-0346.1

Juanchich, M., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Sirota, M. (2020) Negations in uncertainty lexicon affect attention, decision-making and trust. Climatic Change, 162 (3). pp. 1677-1698. ISSN 0165-0009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02737-y

Bevacqua, E., Vousdoukas, M. I., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Vrac, M. (2020) Brief communication: the role of using precipitation or river discharge data when assessing global coastal compound flooding. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), 20. pp. 1765-1782. ISSN 1684-9981 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020

Lloyd, E. A. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2020) Environmental catastrophes, climate change, and attribution. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1469 (1). pp. 105-124. ISSN 1749-6632 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14308

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Sobel, A. H. (2020) Localness in climate change. Comparative Studies of South Asia, Africa and the Middle East, 40 (1). pp. 7-16. ISSN 1548-226X doi: https://doi.org/10.1215/1089201X-8185983

Mindlin, J., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Vera, C., Osman, M., Zappa, G., Lee, R. W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1946-5559 and Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2020) Storyline description of Southern Hemisphere midlatitude circulation and precipitation response to greenhouse gas forcing. Climate Dynamics, 54 (9-10). pp. 4399-4421. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05234-1

Zappa, G., Ceppi, P. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2020) Time-evolving sea surface warming patterns modulate the climate change response of subtropical precipitation over land. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 117 (9). pp. 4539-4545. ISSN 0027-8424 doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1911015117

Boljka, L. and Shepherd, T.G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2020) Multiscale extratropical barotropic variability on the subseasonal-to-seasonal timescale. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (726). pp. 301-313. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3676

Hartung, K., Shepherd, T.G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Hoskins, B.J., Methven, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7636-6872 and Svensson, G. (2020) Diagnosing topographic forcing in an atmospheric dataset: the case of the North American Cordillera. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (726). pp. 314-326. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3677

Leung, T. Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0056-284X, Leutbecher, M., Reich, S. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2019) Atmospheric predictability: revisiting the inherent finite-time barrier. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 76 (12). pp. 3883-3892. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-19-0057.1

Zappa, G. (2019) Regional climate impacts of future changes in the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation: a storylines view. Current Climate Change Reports, 5 (4). pp. 358-371. ISSN 2198-6061 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00146-7

Ceppi, P. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2019) The role of the stratospheric polar vortex for the austral jet response to greenhouse gas forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (12). pp. 6972-6979. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082883

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2019) Storyline approach to the construction of regional climate change information. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 475 (2225). 20190013. ISSN 1471-2946 doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2019.0013

Løhre, E., Juanchich, M., Sirota, M., Teigen, K. H. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2019) Climate scientists’ wide prediction intervals may be more likely but are perceived to be less certain. Weather, Climate and Society, 11 (3). pp. 565-575. ISSN 1948-8327 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-18-0136.1

Byrne, N. J., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Polichtchouk, I. (2019) Subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability of the Southern Hemisphere eddy-driven jet during austral spring and early summer. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124 (13). pp. 6841-6855. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD030173

Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Boyd, E., Calel, R. A., Chapman, S. C., Dessai, S., Dima-West, I. M., Fowler, H. J., James, R., Maraun, D., Martius, O., Senior, C. A., Sobel, A. H., Stainforth, D. A., Tett, S. F. B., Trenberth, K. E., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Watkins, N. W., Wilby, R. L. and Zenghelis, D. A. (2018) Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change. Climatic Change, 151 (3-4). pp. 555-571. ISSN 0165-0009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9

Hawcroft, M., Walsh, E., Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X and Zappa, G. (2018) Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones. Environmental Research Letters, 13. 124006. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaed59

Polichtchouk, I., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Byrne, N. J. (2018) Impact of parametrized nonorographic gravity wave drag on stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the northern and southern hemispheres. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (16). pp. 8612-8618. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078981

Boljka, L., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 and Blackburn, M. (2018) On the coupling between barotropic and baroclinic modes of extratropical atmospheric variability. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 75 (6). pp. 1853-1871. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0370.1

Polichtchouk, I., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Hogan, R. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3180-5157 and Bechtold, P. (2018) Sensitivity of the Brewer-Dobson circulation and polar vortex variability to parameterized nonorographic gravity wave drag in a high-resolution atmospheric model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 75 (5). pp. 1525-1543. ISSN 1520-0469 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-17-0304.1

Ceppi, P. and Gregory, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644 (2017) Relationship of tropospheric stability to climate sensitivity and Earth’s observed radiation budget. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 114 (50). pp. 13126-13131. ISSN 0027-8424 doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1714308114

Bao, M., Tan, X., Hartmann, D. L. and Ceppi, P. (2017) Classifying the tropospheric precursor patterns of sudden stratospheric warmings. Geophysical Research Letters, 44 (15). pp. 8011-8016. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074611

Ceppi, P., Brient, F., Zelinka, M. D. and Hartmann, D. L. (2017) Cloud feedback mechanisms and their representation in global climate models. WIREs Climate Change, 8 (4). e465. ISSN 1757-7799 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.465

Maraun, D., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Widmann, M., Zappa, G., Walton, D., Gutierrez, J. M., Hagemann, S., Richter, I., Soares, P. M. M., Hall, A. and Mearns, L. O. (2017) Towards process-informed bias correction of climate change simulations. Nature Climate Change, 7. pp. 764-773. ISSN 1758-6798 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3418

Zappa, G., Hoskins, B. J. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2015) The dependence of wintertime Mediterranean precipitation on the atmospheric circulation response to climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 10 (10). 104012. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104012

McLandress, C., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Jonsson, A. I., von Clarmann, T. and Funke, B. (2015) A method for merging nadir-sounding climate records, with an application to the global-mean stratospheric temperature data sets from SSU and AMSU. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 15. pp. 9271-9284. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9271-2015

Zappa, G., Hoskins, B. J. and Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968 (2015) Improving climate change detection through optimal seasonal averaging: the case of the North Atlantic jet and European precipitation. Journal of Climate, 28 (16). pp. 6381-6397. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00823.1

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Dynamical Controls on Regional Aspects of CLimate Change (DCRACC)

Dynamical controls on regional aspects of climate change: Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award

EPSRC Centre for Doctoral Training in the Mathematics of Planet Earth

New models for storm track variability

The Cult of Saints: a christendom-wide study of its origin, spread and development (COS)

Understanding atmospheric circulation from a surface perspective (UACSURF)

Understanding the atmospheric circulation response to climate change (ACRCC)

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