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Global oil production: forecasts and methodologies

Bentley, R. and Boyle, G. (2008) Global oil production: forecasts and methodologies. Environment and Planning B-Planning & Design, 35 (4). pp. 609-626. ISSN 0265-8135

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To link to this item DOI: 10.1068/b33063t

Abstract/Summary

A range of forecasts of global oil production made between 1956 and the present day are listed. For the majority of these the methodology used to generate the forecast is described. The paper distinguishes between three types of forecast: group 1-quantitative analyses which predict that global oil production will reach a resource-limited peak in the near term, and certainly before the year 2020; group 2-forecasts that use quantitative methods, but which see no production peak within the forecast's time horizon (typically 2020 or 2030); group 3-nonquantitative analyses that rule out a resource-limited oil peak within the foreseeable future. The paper analyses these forecast types and suggests that group 1 forecasts are the most realistic.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science
ID Code:15136
Uncontrolled Keywords:CRUDE-OIL, CURVES

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