Impact of increasing resolution and a warmer climate on extreme weather from NH extra-tropical cyclones
Champion, A. J., Hodges, K. I., Bengtsson, L. O., Keenlyside, N. S. and Esch, M. (2011) Impact of increasing resolution and a warmer climate on extreme weather from NH extra-tropical cyclones. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanograph, 63 (5). pp. 893-906. ISSN 1600-0870
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To link to this article DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2011.00538.x
The effect of a warmer climate on the properties of extra-tropical cyclones is investigated using simulations of the ECHAM5 global climate model at resolutions of T213 (60 km) and T319 (40 km). Two periods representative of the end of the 20th and 21st centuries are investigated using the IPCC A1B scenario. The focus of the paper is on precipitation for the NH summer and winter seasons, however results from vorticity and winds are also presented. Similar number of events are identified at both resolutions. There are, however, a greater number of extreme precipitation events in the higher reso- lution run. The difference between maximum intensity distributions are shown to be statistically significant using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. A Generalised Pareto Distribution is used to analyse changes in extreme precipitation and wind events. In both resolutions, there is an increase in the number of ex- treme precipitation events in a warmer climate for all seasons, together with a reduction in return period. This is not associated with any increased verti- cal velocity, or with any increase in wind intensity in the winter and spring. However, there is an increase in wind extremes in the summer and autumn associated with tropical cyclones migrating into the extra-tropics.