Bayesian estimation of the spatial Durbin error model with an application to voter turnout in the 2004 presidential election
Lacombe, D. J., Holloway, G. J. and Shaughnessy, T. M. (2014) Bayesian estimation of the spatial Durbin error model with an application to voter turnout in the 2004 presidential election. International Regional Science Review, 37 (3). pp. 294-323. ISSN 1552-6925
To link to this article DOI: 10.1177/0160017612452133
The potential for spatial dependence in models of voter turnout, although plausible from a theoretical perspective, has not been adequately addressed in the literature. Using recent advances in Bayesian computation, we formulate and estimate the previously unutilized spatial Durbin error model and apply this model to the question of whether spillovers and unobserved spatial dependence in voter turnout matters from an empirical perspective. Formal Bayesian model comparison techniques are employed to compare the normal linear model, the spatially lagged X model (SLX), the spatial Durbin model, and the spatial Durbin error model. The results overwhelmingly support the spatial Durbin error model as the appropriate empirical model.