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Incorporating technology buying behaviour into UK-based long term domestic stock energy models to provide improved policy analysis

Lee, T. and Yao, R. (2013) Incorporating technology buying behaviour into UK-based long term domestic stock energy models to provide improved policy analysis. Energy Policy, 52. pp. 363-372. ISSN 0301-4215

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To link to this item DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.09.048

Abstract/Summary

The UK has a target for an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 from a 1990 base. Domestic energy use accounts for around 30% of total emissions. This paper presents a comprehensive review of existing models and modelling techniques and indicates how they might be improved by considering individual buying behaviour. Macro (top-down) and micro (bottom-up) models have been reviewed and analysed. It is found that bottom-up models can project technology diffusion due to their higher resolution. The weakness of existing bottom-up models at capturing individual green technology buying behaviour has been identified. Consequently, Markov chains, neural networks and agent-based modelling are proposed as possible methods to incorporate buying behaviour within a domestic energy forecast model. Among the three methods, agent-based models are found to be the most promising, although a successful agent approach requires large amounts of input data. A prototype agent-based model has been developed and tested, which demonstrates the feasibility of an agent approach. This model shows that an agent-based approach is promising as a means to predict the effectiveness of various policy measures.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of the Built Environment > Construction Management and Engineering > Innovative and Sustainable Technologies
Interdisciplinary centres and themes > Energy Research
ID Code:29965
Uncontrolled Keywords:Domestic; Energy model; Buying behaviour
Additional Information:Special Section: Transition Pathways to a Low Carbon Economy
Publisher:Elsevier

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