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Information and predictability: bookmakers, prediction markets and tipsters as forecasters

Reade, J. (2014) Information and predictability: bookmakers, prediction markets and tipsters as forecasters. Journal of Prediction Markets, 8 (1). pp. 43-76. ISSN 1750-6751

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Official URL: http://ubplj.org/index.php/jpm/article/view/865

Abstract/Summary

The more information is available, and the more predictable are events, the better forecasts ought to be. In this paper forecasts by bookmakers, prediction markets and tipsters are evaluated for a range of events with varying degrees of predictability and information availability. All three types of forecast represent different structures of information processing and as such would be expected to perform differently. By and large, events that are more predictable, and for which more information is available, do tend to be forecast better.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Arts, Humanities and Social Science > School of Politics, Economics and International Relations > Economics
ID Code:37915
Publisher:University of Buckingham Press

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