Climate change, glacier retreat, and water availability in the Caucasus region
Shahgedanova, M., Hagg, W., Hassell, D., Stokes, C. R. and Popovnin, V. (2009) Climate change, glacier retreat, and water availability in the Caucasus region. In: Jones, J. A. A., Vardanian , T. G. and Hakopian, C. (eds.) Threats to global water security. NATO science for peace and security series C: environmental security . Springer, pp. 131-143. ISBN 9789048123445
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To link to this article DOI: 10.1007/978-90-481-2344-5
The paper discusses the observed and projected warming in the Caucasus region and its implications for glacier melt, water availability and potential hazards. A strong positive trend in summer air temperatures of 0.05 degrees C year(-1) is observed in the high-altitude areas (above 2000 m) providing for a strong glacier melt. A widespread glacier retreat has also been reported between 1985 and 2000, with an average rate of 8 m year(-1). A warming of 5-7 degrees C is projected for the Sum mer months in the 2071-2100 period under the A2 emission group of scenarios, Suggesting that enhanced glacier melt and a changing water balance can be expected.