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Lessons on climate sensitivity from past climate changes

von der Heydt, A. S., Dijkstra, H. A., van de Wal, R. S. W., Caballero, R., Crucifix, M., Foster, G. L., Huber, M., Köhler, P., Rohling, E., Valdes, P. J., Ashwin, P., Bathiany, S., Berends, T., van Bree, L. G. J., Ditlevsen, P., Ghil, M., Haywood, A. M., Katzav, J., Lohmann, G., Lohmann, J. , Lucarini, V., Marzocchi, A., Pälike, H., Baroni, I. R., Simon, D., Sluijs, A., Stap, L. B., Tantet, A., Viebahn, J. and Ziegler, M. (2016) Lessons on climate sensitivity from past climate changes. Current Climate Change Reports, 2 (4). pp. 148-158. ISSN 2198-6061

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To link to this item DOI: 10.1007/s40641-016-0049-3

Abstract/Summary

Over the last decade, our understanding of climate sensitivity has improved considerably. The climate system shows variability on many timescales, is subject to non-stationary forcing and it is most likely out of equilibrium with the changes in the radiative forcing. Slow and fast feedbacks complicate the interpretation of geological records as feedback strengths vary over time. In the geological past, the forcing timescales were different than at present, suggesting that the response may have behaved differently. Do these insights constrain the climate sensitivity relevant for the present day? In this paper, we review the progress made in theoretical understanding of climate sensitivity and on the estimation of climate sensitivity from proxy records. Particular focus lies on the background state dependence of feedback processes and on the impact of tipping points on the climate system. We suggest how to further use palaeo data to advance our understanding of the currently ongoing climate change.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Mathematics and Statistics > Applied Statistics
ID Code:70809
Uncontrolled Keywords:Constraints on Climate Sensitivity (R Knutti, Section Editor), Climate sensitivity, Palaeoclimate, Climate tipping points
Publisher:Springer International Publishing

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