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Forecasting with social media: evidence from Tweets on soccer matches

Brown, A., Rambacussing, D., Reade, J. J. and Rossi, G. (2018) Forecasting with social media: evidence from Tweets on soccer matches. Economic Inquiry, 56 (3). pp. 1748-1763. ISSN 1465-7295

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To link to this item DOI: 10.1111/ecin.12506

Abstract/Summary

Social media is now used as a forecasting tool by a variety of firms and agencies. But how useful are such data in forecasting outcomes? Can social media add any in- formation to that produced by a prediction/betting market? We source 13.8m posts from Twitter, and combine them with contemporaneous Betfair betting prices, to fore- cast the outcomes of English Premier League soccer matches as they unfold. Using a micro-blogging dictionary to analyse the content of Tweets, we find that the aggregate tone of Tweets contains significant information not in betting prices, particularly in the immediate aftermath of goals and red cards.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Arts, Humanities and Social Science > School of Politics, Economics and International Relations > Economics
ID Code:73480
Publisher:Wiley

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