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Modeling of relationships between weather and Septoria tritici epidemics on winter wheat: A critical approach

Pietravalle, S., Shaw, M. W., Parker, S. R. and van den Bosch, F. (2003) Modeling of relationships between weather and Septoria tritici epidemics on winter wheat: A critical approach. Phytopathology, 93 (10). pp. 1329-1339. ISSN 0031-949X

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To link to this article DOI: 10.1094/PHYTO.2003.93.10.1329

Abstract/Summary

Two models for predicting Septoria tritici on winter wheat (cv. Ri-band) were developed using a program based on an iterative search of correlations between disease severity and weather. Data from four consecutive cropping seasons (1993/94 until 1996/97) at nine sites throughout England were used. A qualitative model predicted the presence or absence of Septoria tritici (at a 5% severity threshold within the top three leaf layers) using winter temperature (January/February) and wind speed to about the first node detectable growth stage. For sites above the disease threshold, a quantitative model predicted severity of Septoria tritici using rainfall during stern elongation. A test statistic was derived to test the validity of the iterative search used to obtain both models. This statistic was used in combination with bootstrap analyses in which the search program was rerun using weather data from previous years, therefore uncorrelated with the disease data, to investigate how likely correlations such as the ones found in our models would have been in the absence of genuine relationships.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Interdisciplinary centres and themes > Centre for Food Security
Faculty of Life Sciences > School of Agriculture, Policy and Development
ID Code:9051
Uncontrolled Keywords:binary data, data mining, discriminant analysis, Window Pane, MYCOSPHAERELLA-GRAMINICOLA, LEAF BLOTCH, STATISTICAL-MODELS, RUST, EPIDEMICS, DEW DURATION, SPRING WHEAT, STRIPE RUST, YIELD LOSS, SEVERITY, PREDICTION
Publisher:The American Phytopathological Society

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