Accessibility navigation


Evaluating strange forecasts: the curious case of football match scorelines

Reade, J., Singleton, C. and Brown, A. (2020) Evaluating strange forecasts: the curious case of football match scorelines. Scottish Journal of Political Economy. ISSN 1467-9485 (In Press)

[img] Text - Accepted Version
· Restricted to Repository staff only
· The Copyright of this document has not been checked yet. This may affect its availability.

375kB

It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing.

Abstract/Summary

This study analyses point forecasts of exact scoreline outcomes for football matches in the English Premier League. These forecasts were made for distinct competitions and originally judged differently. We compare these with implied probability forecasts using bookmaker odds and a crowd of tipsters, as well as point and probability forecasts generated from a statistical model. From evaluating these sources and types of forecast, using various methods, we argue that regression encompassing is the most appropriate way to compare point and probability forecasts, and find that both these types of forecasts for football match scorelines generally add information to one another.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Arts, Humanities and Social Science > School of Politics, Economics and International Relations > Economics
ID Code:92563
Uncontrolled Keywords:Forecasting; Statistical modelling; Regression models; Prediction markets
Publisher:Wiley

University Staff: Request a correction | Centaur Editors: Update this record

Page navigation