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A heteroskedastic model of park grass spring hay yields in response to weather suggests continuing yield decline with climate change in future decades

Addy, J. W. G., Ellis, R. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3695-6894, MacLaren, C., Macdonald, A. J., Semenov, M. A. and Mead, A. (2022) A heteroskedastic model of park grass spring hay yields in response to weather suggests continuing yield decline with climate change in future decades. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 19 (193). ISSN 1742-5662

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To link to this item DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2022.0361

Abstract/Summary

UK grasslands perform important environmental and economic functions, but their future productivity under climate change is uncertain. Spring hay yields from 1902 to 2016 at one site (the Park Grass Long Term Experiment) in southern England under four different fertilizer regimes were modelled in response to weather (seasonal temperature and rainfall). The modelling approach applied comprised: (1) a Bayesian model comparison to model parametrically the heteroskedasticity in a gamma likelihood function; (2) a Bayesian varying intercept multiple regression model with an autoregressive lag one process (to incorporate the effect of productivity in the previous year) of the response of hay yield to weather from 1902 to 2016. The model confirmed that warmer and drier years, specifically, autumn, winter and spring, in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries reduced yield. The model was applied to forecast future spring hay yields at Park Grass under different climate change scenarios (HadGEM2 and GISS RCP 4.5 and 8.5). This application indicated that yields are forecast to decline further between 2020 and 2080, by as much as 48–50%. These projections are specific to Park Grass, but implied a severe reduction in grassland productivity in southern England with climate change during the twenty-first century.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Life Sciences > School of Agriculture, Policy and Development > Department of Crop Science
ID Code:106523
Uncontrolled Keywords:climate change, fertiliser, grass, hay, long-term experiment, rainfall, temperature, UK, yield
Publisher:Royal Society

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