Abstract/Summary

In this chapter we will discuss the different components required for a hazard forecasting system, aimed to predict high-impact events on different timescales. The components discussed here are the atmospheric forecasting system and hazard forecast models in terms of flooding, drought, fire risk, and human heat stress. Predicting hazardous events is clearly a probabilistic problem, and an ensemble forecast approach is needed in the model components. We also discuss drivers of predictability for events on different timescales, which also puts requirements on the prediction system in terms of components to be included and prioritized in the atmospheric forecasting system. Finally, we discuss evaluation aspects of hazard forecasts.