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Operational multiscale predictions of hazardous events

Magnusson, L., Prudhomme, C., Di Giuseppe, F., Di Napoli, C. and Pappenberger, F. (2023) Operational multiscale predictions of hazardous events. In: Astitha, M. and Nikolopoulos, E. (eds.) Extreme Weather Forecasting: State of the Science, Uncertainty and Impacts. Elsevier, pp. 87-129. ISBN 9780128201244

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To link to this item DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-820124-4.00008-6


In this chapter we will discuss the different components required for a hazard forecasting system, aimed to predict high-impact events on different timescales. The components discussed here are the atmospheric forecasting system and hazard forecast models in terms of flooding, drought, fire risk, and human heat stress. Predicting hazardous events is clearly a probabilistic problem, and an ensemble forecast approach is needed in the model components. We also discuss drivers of predictability for events on different timescales, which also puts requirements on the prediction system in terms of components to be included and prioritized in the atmospheric forecasting system. Finally, we discuss evaluation aspects of hazard forecasts.

Item Type:Book or Report Section
Divisions:Science > School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science > Department of Geography and Environmental Science
Life Sciences > School of Agriculture, Policy and Development > Department of Agri-Food Economics & Marketing
ID Code:108368

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