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It's trade, stupid! How changes in trade competitiveness affect incumbents' electoral success

Dür, A. ORCID:, Huber, R. A. ORCID: and Stiller, Y. (2024) It's trade, stupid! How changes in trade competitiveness affect incumbents' electoral success. European Journal of Political Research. ISSN 1475-6765

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To link to this item DOI: 10.1111/1475-6765.12663


The consequences of economic globalization on electoral outcomes have recently become a prominent topic of research. We complement the emerging literature on this topic by studying whether changes in a subnational region's trade competitiveness affect the incumbent's vote share in that region. Using a novel dataset that relates subnational trade competitiveness to election results in 29 countries over a 20‐year period, we show that this is indeed the case. We also show that this effect is most pronounced for elections where the clarity of responsibility is high. Finally, we find mixed evidence for a moderating effect of incumbents' economic ideology as a moderator. These findings also contribute to the broader economic voting literature.

Item Type:Article
Divisions:Arts, Humanities and Social Science > School of Politics, Economics and International Relations > Politics and International Relations
ID Code:115574
Uncontrolled Keywords:Sociology and Political Science


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