Abstract/Summary

We are living under deep uncertainty about whether we will experience a hazard one day in the future or not. Nowadays, also climate change and its entailing extreme weather is adding relevance and urgency to disaster preparedness. Yet, it is easy to post-pone the decision on potential preparedness actions for a hazard (which might never happen). But how long do we post-pone this decision? This thesis aimed to identify ways to encourage citizens to prepare for a future where the occurrence of hazards is deeply uncertain. To achieve this aim, this thesis 1) investigated barriers to individual disaster preparedness through a survey with citizens affected by the floods in Germany in 2021; 2) developed a no-regrets framework for citizens’ preparedness under uncertainty and one framework to pre-assess potential side effects of no-regrets actions (specifically Nature-based Solutions), and 3) explored practical examples for facilitating the uptake of no-regrets preparedness actions. The survey highlighted, firstly, the importance of the ability to imagine hazard scenarios for individual disaster preparedness; secondly, the need to bridge the interface between citizens and local authorities towards collective risk governance, and thirdly, that the main regrets of citizens on disaster preparedness are about their inaction. This thesis suggests the adoption of the no-regrets approach to guide citizens in their disaster preparedness further considering the uncertainty of the future. In this regard, the need is raised to focus on long-term preparedness which basically starts today. Moreover, the thesis acknowledges that the uptake of a disaster preparedness behaviour by citizens needs to be facilitated which further includes motivation. In support of this, different ways to promote a disaster preparedness behaviour are presented including collective action, knowledge bridging, and motivational approaches such as games. Overall, the facilitation needs to primarily focus on citizens without previous hazard experience or risk awareness.