Abstract/Summary

Studying natural hazards in the context of human-induced landscape transformation is complex, especially in regions with limited information. The narratives of the elderly can play a role in filling these knowledge gaps at the multi-decadal timescale. Here, we build upon a citizen-based elderly approach to understanding natural hazard patterns and landscape transformation in a tropical mountainous environment, the Kigezi Highlands (SW Uganda). We engaged 98 elderly citizens (>70 years old) living in eight small watersheds with different characteristics. Through interviews and focus group discussions, we reconstructed historical timelines and used participatory mapping to facilitate the interview process. We cross-checked the information of the elderly citizens with historical aerial photographs, archives, and field visits. Our results show that major land use/cover changes are associated with a high population increase over the last 80 years. We also evidence an increase in reported natural hazard events such as landslides and flash floods from the 1940s until the 1980s. Then, we notice a stabilization in the number of hazard events per decade, although the two most impacted decades (1980s and 2000s) stand out. Despite this new information, an increase in natural hazard frequency due to land use/cover change cannot yet be quantitatively validated, especially when the probable modulator effect of climate variability is considered. Nevertheless, the increase in the exposure of a vulnerable population to natural hazards is clear, and population growth together with poor landscape management practices are the key culprits that explain this evolution. This study demonstrates the added value of historical narratives in terms of understanding natural hazards in the context of environmental changes. This insight is essential for governments and non-governmental organizations for the development of policies and measures for disaster risk reduction that are grounded in the path dependence of local realities.