The impact of results-based programming on immediate stabilisation outcomes: New evidence from the United Nations Development Programme

Mrakic, A. (2025) The impact of results-based programming on immediate stabilisation outcomes: New evidence from the United Nations Development Programme. PhD thesis, University of Reading. doi: 10.48683/1926.00124883

Abstract/Summary

A diminishing reliance on multilateralism, driven by shifting geopolitical configurations, has contributed to the decline of large-scale peacekeeping operations and special political missions as dominant mechanisms for conflict resolution. In response to these shifts, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has developed and piloted a new operational paradigm to address post-conflict settings: the Funding Facility for Immediate Stabilisation (FFIS). Stabilisation – still an undefined concept within the UN - has evolved over the last fifty years, shifting from a siloed, militarised approach to a more integrated and, recently, minimalistic and pragmatic applications. Through an examination of this evolution, this PhD thesis critically analyses the operationalisation of immediate stabilisation as piloted in Iraq and Libya by the UNDP. This thesis contributes to the theoretical understanding of stabilisation by offering a structured framework to conceptualise its essential dimensions and test their relative importance across different contexts. This research identifies the factors that contribute most to successful outcomes of immediate stabilisation, measured here as the safe and voluntary return of internally displaced persons (IDPs) to their places of origin. This approach advances scholarly debates on stabilisation effectiveness by combining practitioner insights with empirical analysis of real-time programme data. Uniquely, the study analyses data collected during stabilisation efforts by the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) and UNDP, and other actors. Given the samples’ complexity, source diversity and intricate causality, and with the objective of offering a more in-depth understanding of the dynamic relationship between programme inputs and stabilisation outcomes, the research employs a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), the first application of this method to UN-led stabilisation programming. In line with UNDP's immediate stabilisation theory of change, the analysis considers ten factors: two structural factors (peace/safety; political support), four programmatic factors (societal; economic; governance; peace) and four factors pertaining to results-based management (RBM) (ownership/coordination; accountability; management efficiency; management effectiveness). In the specific contexts of Iraq and Libya, where UNDP first piloted the application of immediate stabilisation as a concept, the findings indicate that RBM-related factors play a more substantial role than structural and programmatic factors, underscoring the significance of the management process in overseeing programme activities. In complex stabilisation settings, RBM principle-related factors (specifically ownership/coordination and accountability) represent necessary conditions to address the challenges and uncertainties inherent in rapidly implemented large-scale programmes. The research also reveals that some programmatic factors (societal and governance) are core conditions in contexts like Libya, where activities are typically delivered at a small scale and in a sequential manner, while the structural peace/safety factor represents a no-core condition due to the repeated waves of violence. Contrary to conventional assumptions, factors pertaining to peace and economic emerge as peripheral or no-core conditions in Iraq and Libya, confirming the lack of a significant relationship between unemployment and economic recovery on the one hand and successful immediate stabilisation outcomes on the other. The study advances theoretical debates by systematically demonstrating the relative weight of management factors in immediate stabilisation and highlighting the importance of context-specific configurations. It argues for an evidence-driven, adaptive approach that integrates robust accountability mechanisms, stronger coordination frameworks, and flexible programmatic designs. Ultimately, the research contributes to both scholarship and practice by reframing what drives success in UN-led stabilisation and providing an empirically grounded basis for refining future policy and operational models.

Item Type	Thesis (PhD)
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/124883
Identification Number/DOI	10.48683/1926.00124883
Divisions	Arts, Humanities and Social Science > School of Politics, Economics and International Relations > Politics and International Relations
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