Mapping the impact of climate change on the quality potential of UK still Chardonnay wine production: using the Chablis region as an analogous model

Biss, A. J. (2025) Mapping the impact of climate change on the quality potential of UK still Chardonnay wine production: using the Chablis region as an analogous model. PhD thesis, University of Reading. doi: 10.48683/1926.00127767

Abstract/Summary

In recent decades, the UK (especially Southern and Eastern England) has developed a reputation for quality sparkling wine production. The potential for high quality still white wine from Chardonnay grapes grown in the UK was investigated using the Chablis region in Burgundy, France, as an analogy for UK viticulture. Weather data and Chablis vintage quality scores from 1963 to 2018 were analysed to model the response of vintage score to weather (key variables: mean temperature, April to September; mean minimum temperature, September; total rainfall, June to September). This weather model was applied to the UK for 1981–2000, 2010–2019 and, with climate change projections, to 2040–2059. Only 0.2% to 1.8% of UK land was found suitable in recent climatic conditions for reliable production of high-quality still Chardonnay wine, but under median and 95th percentile projections for 2040–2059 SE and E England will have the potential for high-quality still Chardonnay wine production in an average year. This analysis was extended to include the effects of topography and soils to map suitable sites for Chardonnay vineyards in the UK, evaluated against 35 wine experts’ scores of current English still Chardonnay wines. Minerality, often associated with cooler regions’ high-quality still white wines, was studied by analysing Chablis Premier Cru tasting notes entered into CellarTracker between 2003 and 2022. Use of the descriptor minerality was correlated with growing season temperature, sunshine hours, and vineyard aspect whereas soils and geology were not a principal source of minerality in Chablis wine. Overall, the results show that reliable production of premium quality still Chardonnay wine is likely to be possible by mid-Century in SE, S, and E England - and possibly also the Midlands and SW England under more extreme climate change.

Item Type	Thesis (PhD)
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/127767
Identification Number/DOI	10.48683/1926.00127767
Divisions	Life Sciences > School of Agriculture, Policy and Development
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