Climate change impact and adaptation among poultry farmers in Southwest Nigeria

Ilori, O. D. (2026) Climate change impact and adaptation among poultry farmers in Southwest Nigeria. PhD thesis, University of Reading. doi: 10.48683/1926.00128528

Abstract/Summary

Climate change poses rising risks to livestock systems, yet the behavioural dimensions of farmer adaptation, especially in monogastric systems, are insufficiently examined. This study investigates poultry farmers’ perceptions of climate change in southwest Nigeria, their current adaptation strategies, and the psychological and behavioural drivers of their intentions to adopt adaptation strategies in future. The application of Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) provides a novel behavioural framework for examining how poultry producers respond and adapt to climate challenges. This study used a mixed-methods approach, combining qualitative interviews with 25 industry stakeholders and surveys of 540 poultry farmers from six states. Descriptive statistics and the Kruskal–Wallis H test were used to assess perceptions of extreme weather and its effects on poultry production. Thematic analysis was used with NVivo. A multivariate probit model found determinants of current adaptation choices, while structural equation modelling (SEM) examined behavioural drivers of future intentions within the PMT framework. The study finds that higher temperatures, erratic rainfall, and flooding have significantly disrupted poultry production, leading to increased mortality, reduced egg output, and greater disease prevalence. Small- and medium-scale farmers have experienced greater losses compared to large-scale producers. Additionally, findings indicate that large farms rely on advanced technologies, such as exhaust fans, foggers, and climate-controlled housing, for adaptation, while smaller farms use low-cost strategies, such as adjusting feed and stocking density. The results show that integrating multiple adaptation strategies enhances effectiveness. Farmers’ intentions to adapt are primarily driven by perceptions of climate risk, beliefs about climate change, social norms, and established routines. However, the study clearly identifies major barriers: adaptation costs, maladaptive responses, and institutional disincentives that limit adoption. This study offers policy recommendations: targeted financial support for small and medium farmers, incentives for climate-smart technologies, improved access to climate information, and behaviourally informed extension services that address risk perception, efficacy beliefs, and maladaptive habits. By applying PMT and identifying neglected behavioural barriers in livestock policy, this research contributes to climate adaptation literature and provides practical insights to strengthen poultry sector resilience in Nigeria.

Item Type	Thesis (PhD)
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/128528
Identification Number/DOI	10.48683/1926.00128528
Divisions	Life Sciences > School of Agriculture, Policy and Development
Date on Title Page	March 2025
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